199
FXUS62 KMHX 082350
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
750 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier high pressure is building over ENC and will
remain over the area through late week as Hurricane Milton
pushes off the Florida Coast into the Western Atlantic. High
pressure will slowly migrate south this weekend with a cold
front pushing through the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 8 PM Tuesday...No major changes to the forecast with this
update.
Previous Discussion...As of 1:30 PM Tuesday...Cooler and drier
high pressure continues to build over the area. Efficient
radiational cooling will take place tonight with inland lows
expected to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s. Closer to the
coast where the wind will stay slightly more elevated, temps
will bottom out in the low 60s. No fog is expected to develop
overnight given persistent light winds and a lack of moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1:45 PM Tuesday...High pressure will remain in control and
support another day of seasonably cool temps in the mid-70s and
dewpoints in the 50s. Mostly sunny skies will prevail through
early afternoon before high clouds start to increase from south
to north through the rest of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure will build into the area
through the end of the week. TC Milton will move off the Florida
coast and pass well south of the area Thursday into Friday. A
cold front will push through the area early next week.

Wednesday through Friday night...An upper cut-off slow will
slowly push eastward across southern Quebec and northern New
England through the period with sfc high pressure building in
from the northwest bringing seasonably cool temps and
comfortable dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. Skies will be most
sunny Wednesday but will see a bit more clouds Thursday and TC
Milton moves off the FL coast into the western Atlantic well
south of the area. Guidance continues to show the precip mainly
remaining south of the area but could see a few showers across
the southern coastal waters Thursday. Expect increasing NE winds
as gradients tighten between high pressure across the Mid-
Atlantic and the tropical system. Main impacts from the system
are expected across the waters and beaches with an increased rip
current, large surf and dangerous boating conditions. There may
also be a threat of minor coastal flooding with prolonged
moderate to strong NE winds including the threat of dune erosion
and ocean overwash in vulnerable locations. Temps will be below
normal through most of the period with highs in the low to mid
70s Wednesday, then increasing clouds and stronger NE winds
expected to keep temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday
and Friday. Lows will be in the mid 50s to around 60 Wednesday
night with upper 40s to lower 50s inland to mid 50s to around 60
along the coast.

Saturday through Monday...High pressure will be centered across
the South on Saturday then will be suppressed southward Sunday
as a strong northern stream shortwave and attendant cold front
pushes across the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic. Most guidance
shows the cold front pushing across the area during the day
Monday. There will be limited moisture with the front with only
a shallow saturated layer mainly below 700mb and have kept PoPs
below mentionable most areas except OBX. SWly flow will develop
Saturday into Sunday bringing a warming trend across the area.
Highs Saturday are expected to be in the mid 70s on Saturday and
around 80 on Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s
inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast Saturday, then
mid to upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s coast early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 8 PM Tuesday...VFR flight cats expected through the
period. Skies should remain mostly clear until tomorrow late
morning to early afternoon when upper level clouds increase
from south to north. The wind field will be northerly at around
5-10 kt through the period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...High pressure builds into the area
through the period with VFR conditions prevailing. TC Milton
will pass well south of the area Thursday into Friday which will
bring greater cloud cover but cigs expected to be above 3k ft.
May also see gusty NE winds up to 20-30 kt on Thursday, highest
coastal rtes.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 1:45 PM Tuesday...The waters off of Cape Hatteras are
expected to continue fluctuating between 5-6 ft through this
evening, so SCAs continue for this area. Winds will remain
northeasterly at 10-20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt, mainly
south of Cape Hatteras. Due to the persistent winds and long NE
fetch, 6 ft seas will overspread the coastal waters south
of Oregon Inlet late tonight and continue to build to 7 ft
tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...High pressure will build into the area
from the NW through the long term bringing primarily north to
northeast winds across the waters. Winds will be around 10-20
kt Wednesday morning, then will briefly diminish to below 15 kt
Wednesday afternoon and evening. N to NE winds increase to
around 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30-35 kt possible by Thursday
afternoon and continue through Thursday night as Hurricane
Milton passes south of the waters bringing tightening pressure
gradients and building seas across the waters. Seas will be
around 4-7 ft central and northern waters and 3-6 ft southern
waters Wednesday and Wednesday night, then build to 5-10 ft
Thursday and Friday, highest across the southern and central
waters. Winds will diminish Friday night and then become W to SW
around 10 kt or less on Saturday with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Long period swell from distant Hurricane
Kirk will gradually fade today into Wednesday but they still
post an increased rip current risk and strong shore break
across the ENC beaches.

TC Milton will pass well south of the area on Thursday. Large
swell from this system will likely impact the beaches for the
latter half of the week. Prolonged moderate NE winds through the
week will increase Thursday as gradients tighten between high
pressure centered northwest of the area and TC Milton which
could also bring a threat of minor sound-side flooding across
the southern portions of the Pamlico Sound, Neuse River and
eastern Carteret County.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Saturday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC/RJ
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/OJC/RJ
MARINE...SK/OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX