666
FXUS62 KGSP 090234
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1034 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect mostly clear skies and generally below-normal temperatures
through Friday. Hurricane Milton moves across central Florida
Wednesday night and Thursday bringing some cloud cover and breezy
wind to our area, but no rain is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1005 pm: The center of surface high pressure will continue to
build into the area through Wednesday. Patchy stratocu associated
with shallow moisture beneath a stable layer continues across
western areas this evening. This may linger here and there into the
overnight, but shouldn`t have much of an impact on other weather
elements...and mostly clear skies are expected for the balance of
the night. Light northerly wind continues overnight, with min temps
cooling to near to slightly below normal. This should allow some
mountain valley fog overnight, especially in the Little TN basin,
but generally clear skies expected. Comfortable dew points continue
Wednesday with light northerly wind. Plenty of sunshine to start the
day with increasing cirrus during the afternoon from the edge of the
outflow cloud field associated with Milton moving to the central FL
coast. Highs will be right around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Breezy Winds Possible Thursday, Mainly Along and South of I-85

2) Cooler Temperatures for the End of the Workweek

3) Dry Conditions Continue

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Milton is expected to make landfall over the
Tampa Bay region Wednesday night before lifting northeast across
central Florida overnight into Thursday morning. TC Milton will not
to bring any major impacts to the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia thanks to an upper trough over the northeastern CONUS and a
sfc high over the eastern US working together to keep TC Milton well
to our south while steering it northeastward. Thick upper cloud
cover will remain in place at the start of the short term,
especially across the eastern half of the forecast area, in
association with TC Milton. Cloud cover will gradually diminish from
west to east late Wednesday evening into early Wednesday night. This
will allow lows Wednesday night to remain a few degrees above climo.
Sunny/clear skies are expected for the rest of the short term. Wind
speeds will gradually increase Thursday morning into late Thursday
afternoon, mainly along and south of I-85, as the pressure gradient
tightens between Tropical Cyclone Milton and a sfc high centered
over the Great Lakes region. The latest NBM has gusts ranging from
15-20 mph, with the 90th percentile NBM keeping gusts generally
below 30 mph. Winds will gradually diminish through the early
evening hours Thursday. The sfc high will be centered over the
Carolinas on Friday leading to lighter winds and continued dry
weather. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the upper 60s
to mid 70s across the mountains and the lower to mid 70s east of the
mountains. Highs will be even cooler on Friday, only reaching into
the mid 60s to lower 70s in the mountains and the lower 70s east of
the mountains. Most of the CWA should see temps drop into the 40s
Thursday night, ending up a few degrees below climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry Conditions Continue through the Weekend

2) Above Normal Temperatures Return for the Weekend

3) A Cold Front Brings Cooler Temperatures and Breezy Winds Early
Next Week

Dry sfc high pressure remains over the region this weekend keeping
benign weather around. With sfc winds turning SW`ly this weekend,
warmer and above normal temperatures will return. Highs should
rebound into the upper 70s and lower 80s east of the mountains this
weekend each afternoon. A cold front will track across the forecast
area on Monday bringing breezy northwest winds, mainly across the
mountains, and cooler temperatures to start the workweek. The front
may bring the potential for showers but confidence on this remains
very low as the 12Z GFS brings precip into the area while the 00Z
ECMWF maintains dry conditions. Went with latest NBM for PoPs which
agrees with the ECMWF and maintains a dry forecast. Highs will
remain above normal east of the mountains Monday, with highs near to
a few degrees below normal across the mountains. Highs on Tuesday
should fall to at least 5 degrees below normal area-wide with cool,
dry high pressure filtering in behind the departing front.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR is forecast at most sites through the
period. The only exception is that there is a good chance of
restrictions in low cigs and/or visby at KAVL by around daybreak
Wed. MVFR visby w/ FEW003 are forecast there for a few hours
centered around 12Z. Otherwise, light NE winds are expected through
much of the period, although a few sites may become light/variable
overnight.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions are still expected thru the weekend.
Any fog/low stratus likely will be confined to the mountain valleys
or near bodies of water.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JDL