782
FXUS62 KRAH 240043
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
840 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure will extend over the
Mid-Atlantic through mid-week, then slowly shift west into the
Tennessee Valley region late week into the weekend. Expect a
continuation of dangerously hot weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 840 PM Monday...
Minimal changes were needed with the evening update. As of 8pm, many
automated stations were still reporting temperatures in the low 90s.
Cumulus clouds are minimal, although there should be a slight
increase in clouds from the east later tonight. The Heat Advisory
continues through the night - there are still plenty of triple digit
heat index values right now and there will be minimal relief with
overnight lows, as most locations will only fall into the mid to
upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Monday...
Dangerous and Life Threatening Heat Continues.
Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings will be in effect
1000 AM Tuesday through 800 PM Wednesday.
The core of the heat will be over the region Tuesday afternoon
and night with the mid level ridge just to our north extending
over the region. The Coastal Plain and portions of the eastern
Piedmont will have the highest humidities to go along with the
sweltering hot temperatures. The result should be heat indices
of 107 to 112. Urban Triangle Areas may have some of the highest
heat conditions.
A disturbance rotating to the south and west around the
mid/upper level ridge over VA may allow for a chance of
thunderstorms late Tuesday or Tuesday evening, mainly in the NE
portions of NC. This could bring some cooling relief.
Otherwise, record warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s
Tuesday night, with some urban areas possibly failing to drop
below 80. This will result in little relief from the daytime
heat and will increase the risk of heat stress and heat related
illnesses.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...
* Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect
through 800 PM Wednesday evening.
* Heat index values will dip a few degrees Thursday through the
weekend, but heat-health threats will continue as
temperatures stay well above normal.
Wednesday: The anomalous mid-level ridge will de-amplify and
retrograde westward on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a mid to upper-
level jet streak will remain just offshore the southern NC
coastline.
While temperatures are expected to "cool" a bit compared to Monday
and Tuesday, we`ll still likely reach the mid to upper 90s at most
locations on Wednesday. PWAT will have increased to ~1.75 inches by
Wednesday afternoon, as such the sfc dew points will likely linger
in the upper 60s/lower to mid 70s during peak heating. As such,
still expecting the Heat Indices to reach 105 to ~112 degrees.
Highest heat potential will similarly be concentrated along and
east of US-1.
Beyond the continued heat concerns, there is a chance we could have
some strong to severe storms develop Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Guidance is hinting at some potential for convection late
Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Depending on how this pans out,
lingering outflow boundaries could trigger strong storms Wednesday
afternoon and evening. If they trigger, there`s a good chance for
explosive updrafts as forecast soundings and are indicating strong
low to mid level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km (and MLCAPE of >4000
J/kg) particularly in the Sandhills/Southern Piedmont/Southern
Coastal Plain. Additionally, the DCAPE off forecast soundings is
quite high ~1500 to 2000 J/kg. As such, explosive downdrafts may
accompany any stronger updrafts leading to a primarily damaging wind
gust threat (with hail a secondary threat). It`s worth noting that
pinpointing how much coverage we`ll see, and the best location for
severe storms is a bit challenging just given low confidence in how
Tuesday night`s convection/outflow pans out. However, the AI/ML
severe outlook guidance has been hinting at very high probabilities
especially over the Southern Piedmont/Sandhills/Coastal Plain for
several days now. Additionally, the aforementioned jet streak
will reside just offshore, and could provide marginal shear over
our southern areas (up to ~25 kts). Thus, we`ll have to
continue to monitor Wednesday afternoon for severe weather.
Thursday through Monday: The ridge will remain de-amplified
Thursday into early next week, and as such daytime highs may drop
off a bit into the upper 90s. However, PWAT is expected to remain
above normal (~1.5 to 1.75 inches) during this period. As such,
afternoon dew points may stay a bit more elevated compared to early
in the week and therefore Heat Advisory criteria may continue to be
reached Thursday into the weekend for certain areas.
Additional showers and storms will be possible each day through the
remainder of the extended, with highest chances likely in the
northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 740 PM Monday...
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. A few fair
weather cumulus clouds around 5-6 kft are still observed at some
sites, which will continue again tomorrow. Winds will be calm to
light and variable tonight, becoming mainly NE tomorrow but
remaining light. Can`t rule out some isolated showers and storms
with an upper disturbance dropping south from VA, but this is most
likely to occur after the end of the TAF period, in the evening and
overnight hours on Tuesday night.
Outlook: Predominately VFR conditions are expected through late
week, supported by strong high pressure aloft. Aside from some
patchy morning fog or stratus and isolated/widely scattered
afternoon convection, aviation impacts should remain minimal.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Weather Records/Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...
Raleigh Greensboro Fayetteville
June 23 78 (2024) 74 (2024) 77 (2024)
June 24 76 (2024) 76 (2015) 79 (2010)
June 25 77 (2010) 75 (2015) 75 (1952)
June 26 77 (2024) 74 (2010) 76 (1997)
June 27 76 (1952) 76 (1969) 77 (1998)
June 28 76 (1952) 76 (1969) 78 (1914)
Weather Records/Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...
Raleigh Greensboro Fayetteville
June 23 100 (2024) 102 (1914) 102 (1981)
June 24 99 (2010) 103 (1914) 102 (1914)
June 25 100 (1952) 101 (1914) 102 (1914)
June 26 103 (2024) 102 (1914) 101 (1951)
June 27 104 (1954) 102 (1954) 102 (1998)
June 28 100 (1959) 99 (1959) 105 (1954)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-024>028-
040>043-076>078-088-089.
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
for NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-076>078-088-089.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ021>023-038-039-
073>075-083>086.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...CBL/Badgett
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Danco/Badgett
CLIMATE...Badgett