280
FXUS62 KRAH 211759
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
159 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure will strengthen across the eastern
U.S. this weekend and into next week bringing a period of dangerous
heat during much of the upcoming work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Friday...
An upper level ridge will continue to build across much of the
eastern US today, keeping central NC dry and in a warming pattern.
Temperatures today will top out a few degrees warmer than yesterday
in the low to mid 90s across the region. A few afternoon isolated
thunderstorms are possible in the far SE region where convection
could develop with the afternoon sea breeze. Otherwise today will be
dry mostly sunny skies. Overnight, winds are expected to become calm
and another morning of patchy fog could develop across the eastern
half of the FA. Fog should lift by mid morning as heating begins.
Lows overnight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s for one more
night before the big heat wave.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 124 PM Saturday...
The anomalous mid-level ridge will start to amplify over the Mid-
Atlantic on sunday. As such, expect temperatures to start to heat
up with highs reaching the mid 90s. PWAT will remain relatively
normal, around ~1 to 1.5 inches and with little to no forcing,
expect dry conditions to persist Sunday. In addition, forecast
soundings indicate decent mixing potential Sunday afternoon which
will likely mix dew points out into the mid 60s for much of our area
(possibly upper 50s in the Triad). As such, Heat Indices will stay
below advisory criteria and max out in the 95 to 100 range.
Additional fog may be possible across eastern areas overnight
Sunday. Expect warm overnight lows in the lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 153 PM Saturday..
* High confidence of very hot conditions through much of next week,
with dangerous heat expected for Monday through Thursday.
* Limited precipitation chances are expected during the period.
The anomalous mid-level ridge will continue to strengthen through
mid to late week, reaching ~2 to 3 standard deviations above normal
by Tuesday/Wednesday. This will promote a prolonged period of
increasingly anomalous heat.
On Monday, temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 90s for
most locations. However, lingering lower PWAT will likely yield
decent mixing potential Monday afternoon. As such, dew points will
likely mix out for much of area into the 60s (perhaps even upper 50s
in the Triad). Those along and east of I-95 may hold onto some low
70s dew points Monday afternoon, and as such these areas could reach
Heat Advisory criteria. Elsewhere, will likely remain below
criteria. Regardless, continue to practice heat safety and limit
outdoor time if possible.
From Tuesday through Wednesday, the center of the ridge will
maximize directly over central NC. As such, expect temperatures to
soar into the upper 90s/lower 100s each afternoon. Still think dew
points will mix out into the 60s both Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons. However, with the expected increase in dry bulb
temperatures, we should likely reach Heat Advisory criteria for
areas along and east of US-1. Given the expected mixing, not sure if
we`ll reach Excessive Heat Warning criteria, but surely can`t rule
out a few locations reaching HI of 110 or so for a few hours Tuesday
and Wednesday afternoons.
The ridge will start to break down a bit Thursday into the weekend,
and as such daytime highs may drop off a bit into the upper 90s.
However, PWAT is expected to rise back above normal (~1.5 to 1.75
inches) during this period. As such, afternoon dew points may stay a
bit more elevated compared to early in the week and therefore Heat
Advisory criteria may continue to be reached Thursday into the
weekend for certain areas. Additionally, isolated to scattered
convection will likely accompany this moistening, generally over the
higher terrain/foothills and/or along any differential heating/lee
sfc troughs that develop each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Saturday...
VFR conditions are expected today. Late afternoon sea breeze
convection is expected to stay south and east of RWI and FAY. With
nearly calm winds once again, overnight morning fog and low stratus
is expected to develop at RWI and FAY. KRDU could also experience
some brief restrictions as the fog creeps inland but confidence is
lower. Any fog/low stratus that develops should lift by 13/14z.
Beyond 18z Sunday: VFR conditions are expected over the next five
days as high pressure anchors over the region.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Weather Records/Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...
Raleigh Greensboro Fayetteville
June 21 75 (1933) 75 (1924) 84 (1928)
June 22 78 (1933) 75 (1981) 84 (1928)
June 23 78 (2024) 74 (2024) 77 (2024)
June 24 76 (2024) 76 (2015) 79 (2010)
June 25 77 (2010) 75 (2015) 75 (1952)
June 26 77 (2024) 74 (2010) 76 (1997)
Weather Records/Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...
Raleigh Greensboro Fayetteville
June 21 101 (1933) 100 (1933) 105 (1933)
June 22 100 (2022) 100 (1914) 101 (1990)
June 23 100 (2024) 102 (1914) 102 (1981)
June 24 99 (2010) 103 (1914) 102 (1914)
June 25 100 (1952) 101 (1914) 102 (1914)
June 26 103 (2024) 102 (1914) 101 (1951)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...RAH