141
FXUS62 KMHX 171844
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
144 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to shift offshore tonight and
Thursday with warming temperatures. A strong cold front will
move through Thursday night with high pressure for the end of
the week into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered
over the SE US. The high will cont to shift offshore tonight as
cold front moves through the Mid-West...while mid and high
clouds cont to stream in from the west. Cont warming trend as
tonight`s lows will be quite a bit warmer than the last few
mornings, with lows expected in the 30s inland, with 40s on the
beaches. Low probability for patchy inland fog development
overnight as low level moisture increases combined with calm
winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Wed...Cont good shift to shift continuity on
rain moving into ENC rapidly from W to E Thu evening. Cont to
fcst some chc pops Thu afternoon as a couple showers may move
during the afternoon...with best chances along the immediate
coast. Overnight categorical pops of 90-100% on track with
moderate to occ heavy rain albeit brief in nature, as bulk of
rain sweeps offshore by sunrise Fri. Thunder probabilities cont
only 10-20% for the bulk of ENC, but a localized higher chance
exists for areas from Cape Lookout to Hatteras, as vcnty of Gulf
Stream on strong srly flow may advect some offshore instability
onto the OBX. Rest of the FA will be protected by very chilly
waters on the sounds and nearshore shelf waters off the Crystal
Coast. Generally expecting around 1" of rain for most areas,
with highest QPF on the OBX/Downeast where some convective
elements may sneak onshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Wed...Cold front pushes east by early Fri, with
dry conditions returning. Zonal flow ensues behind fropa, so
temps will actually be above climo behind it, with highs in the
55-65 range and lows in the 30s to 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 12:45 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - VFR through today

 - Chances for patchy fog early Thursday have decreased

 - Increasing cloud cover & lowering CIGs Thursday afternoon
   with approaching front

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of today with scattered
high clouds becoming broken later this afternoon/evening. SW winds
around 10 kt will continue to gust to 15-20 kt during this time as
well. Chances for fog early Thursday morning have decreased given
broken to overcast mid and high clouds that will be blanketing the
area. However, if cloud cover trends back, some patchy fog
development is possible once winds decouple, especially for areas
east of Highway 17. Winds will be out of the SE at 5-10 kt tomorrow
and cloud cover will increase from south to north through the
afternoon as CIGs lower to around 60kft. There`s a slight chance of
showers at the end of the period (greatest chances (~25%) along the
coast).

Outlook: An approaching front will bring greater chances for sub-VFR
flight cats with increased rain chances Thursday night/Friday. VFR
conditions will return late Friday and remain pred-VFR through the
weekend as high pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 145 PM Wed...

Key Messages:

 - Gale conditions likely for the Gulf Stream waters Thursday
   night to early Friday as next cold front approaches, with SCA
   rest of the marine waters. Gale Warning in effect for
   coastal waters from Oregon Inlet to Surf City.

Through tonight...Latest obs show SW-W winds 5-15 kt nearshore
and 10-20 kt gusting to 25 kt offshore, with seas 2-4 ft.
Offshore gradient increases this afternoon, and will continue
with targeted SCA for gusts of 25-30 kt on the Gulf waters from
Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout where SST`s are in the 60s to 70s.
Rest of the marine domain benign with 5-15 kt expected. Winds
diminish to 10 kt or less overnight.

Thursday into Friday...Cold front approaches on Thu with srly
gradient inc to 10-20 kt. Thu night flow inc further ahead of
strong front approaching, with srly winds of 25-35 gusting 35-40
kt along the Gulf Stream, though remaining 15-25 kt with ocnl
higher gusts elsewhere as shallow but stout marine inversion in
place with recent arctic outbreak. With the gales developing
Thu night, seas quickly build to 6-12+ ft and peak during the
late night hours. Winds turn wrly to nwrly on Friday behind the
cold front and may remain elevated in the 15-25 G 30 kt range
before diminishing prior to the weekend. Upgraded to Gale
Warnings for the central and southern waters, and SCAs for the
sounds and northern waters.

Saturday through Sunday...Pleasant boating conditions look to be
in place for the weekend with high pres overhead on Sat leading
to light/vrb winds. The high passes offshore Sat night into Sun
with return swrly flow inc on Sunday into the 15-20 kt offshore
waters, 5-15 kt nearshore and the sounds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to noon EST Friday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Saturday
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-
     154-156.
     Gale Warning from 8 PM Thursday to noon EST Friday for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...CQD