639
FXUS62 KMHX 231131
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
731 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area through early this week
with mainly dry conditions but dangerous heat and humidity.
Potential for thunderstorms returns mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Monday...
Key Messages
- A notable Eastern U.S. heatwave begins Monday
- Heat headlines are in effect
- Anomalously warm overnight temperatures will offer little
relief from the heat
Anomalous upper level, and surface, ridging will remain over the
Eastern Seaboard on Monday, with building low-level thicknesses that
will mark the beginning of an impactful heatwave for the Eastern
U.S. that is expected to last several days.
Anomalous warmth beneath the ridge is forecast to support highs
topping out in the mid to upper 90s for all areas away from the
immediate coast. For coastal communities, highs are expected to top
out in the upper 80s to near 90. Those temperatures combined with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s should support a widespread area of
heat indices ("feels like" temperatures) in the 105-110 degree
range. Heat Advisory remains in effect for the day today as a result
of these heat indices for today and tonight.
Ridging overhead and stronger subsidence in place will limit the
chance of thunderstorms on Monday. A weak surface front is forecast
to slide south along the coast late in the day today. Most guidance
keeps the forecast area dry given the subsidence aloft, but an
isolated shower is not impossible along this boundary if the forcing
is strong enough. Have kept the forecast dry for now given the low
chances depicted in the evening guidance/ensembles.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...While heat indices will fall below 105
overnight, there will be little relief from the heat as
overnight lows are forecast in the upper-70s to near 80. Given
these anomalously warm overnight temperatures and accompanying
muggy conditions (dewpoints in the mid-70s), the heat advisory
will run through the overnight hours.
Despite muggy conditions, drier low- to mid-level air above the
boundary layer is expected to limit any fog potential, similar to
Sunday night. Thus, expect the overnight hours to be calm and mostly
clear.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Mon...
Key Messages
- Dangerous heat and humidity lasts through midweek. Heat
indices are likely to reach 110-115 degrees Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons.
- The heat forecast for late week has turned slightly less
oppressive, as it looks like the heat ridge across the
Eastern US will break down faster. Still heat indices will
reach 100-105 the rest of the week and possibly this weekend.
Tuesday and Wednesday...A very strong upper level ridge will
remain mostly stationary over the region through the end of the
week. Beneath this ridge, low level heights will soar and with
very light flow due to a weak pressure gradient, the entire area
(even the coast) will be well above normal with with some near
record temperatures possible through Wednesday. Highs are
expected in the mid to upper 90s these days, with some locations
possibly hitting 100 degrees. When factoring in the humidity,
dangerous heat conditions will develop each afternoon with heat
indices hitting 110-115 degrees.
Latest forecast trends show the ridge potentially weakening as
early as Wednesday afternoon, which would allow for possibility
of some afternoon/evening thunderstorms. If this occurs,
extreme instability will be present, and there would be some
potential for strong/severe storms.
Thursday through Sunday...An orb of upper level energy will bump
the ridge of high pressure to the west by late this week, which
will not only reduce the low level thicknesses (and high
temperatures) but also introduce a more supportive environment
for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. These will be mostly
airmass storms with little organization, and coverage is
expected to be scattered at best.
Even though heights will be slightly reduced, high temperatures
will be above normal, with highs expected in the low to mid 90s
through this weekend, and heat indices will peak between 100
and 105 each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday night/...
As of 730 AM Monday...Good flying conditions today with VFR
conditions expected over the next 24 hours as high pressure at
the surface and ridging aloft should keep a lid on any
thunderstorm potential over the next 24 hours. Not out of the
question to see an isolated shower along a weak frontal boundary
that is forecast to sag south through the area today, but few
guidance solutions depict any shower formation. Any showers that
do form are expected to be isolated and short- lived, so have
opted to leave any mention out of TAFs this cycle. Beneath the
high, slightly drier low-levels are expected to limit the risk
of BR/FG tonight. Winds will be light and variable through the
period.
LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through
the period as high pressure builds in from the west. By midweek
isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms are possible, and could
bring some restrictions to terminals if they pass nearby.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday night/...
As of 3 AM Monday...Good boating conditions today with high
pressure over the area keeping winds relatively light through
tonight. A weak front is forecast to slide south through area
waters today. Southwesterly winds ahead of this front are
expected to be a bit higher (especially in the afternoon with
the typical bump due to the afternoon/evening thermal gradient),
but only about 10-15kt. Behind the front, light and variable
winds are expected, with seas of 2-3 ft expected through Monday
night across area waters.
LONG TERM /Tuesday though Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Fantastic boating conditions are expected this
week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. The
pressure gradient will remain quite weak through Wednesday,
which will allow sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind
strength and direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts
are expected each morning, with winds increasing each afternoon
and evening to S/SW 10-15 kts in response to a developing sea
breeze. By Thursday, a more consistent pressure gradient will
develop with winds becoming SW at 10-15 kts through Friday.
Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through late week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
High Temperature Records at select climate sites from Monday
(6/23) through Wednesday (6/25).
**Please note...due to a large data gap from 1940-1955, the
Greenville COOP records likely do not reflect the "true" record
high for these days.
Record High Temperatures for Monday (6/23)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
New Bern 98/1988 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 90/2018 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville** 100/1933 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 96/1998 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 101/1911 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 99/2010 (NCA ASOS)
Record High Temperatures for Tuesday (6/24)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
New Bern 100/1944 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 95/1944 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville** 100/2010 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 97/1948 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 98/1952 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 98/2010 (NCA ASOS)
Record High Temperatures for Wednesday (6/25)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
New Bern 101/1952 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 96/1952 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville** 100/1921 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 96/1948 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 101/1952 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 98/1981 (NCA ASOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-
198-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/ZC
MARINE...SGK/ZC
CLIMATE...MHX