751 FXUS62 KMHX 170817 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 417 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the week. The next cold front may approach the area this weekend or early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 200 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGES - Dry and quiet weather today - Mild temperatures inland, but cooler along the OBX A weak, dry cold front is still slated to slide south along the ENC coast this morning. For most, this should come through with little to no fanfare. However, along the OBX, the increased onshore flow behind the front is expected to lead to breezy and noticeably cooler conditions compared to the rest of ENC. There, highs are expected to top out around 60, which is roughly 10 degrees below normal for mid April. Elsewhere, highs will be in the 60s and 70s which is right around normal for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGES - Not as cool tonight, with patchy fog possible In the wake of today`s seabreeze, a continued southerly flow will help to draw a more moist airmass north into ENC through the night. This may allow patchy, shallow fog to develop for some, although the risk of impactful fog is very low (<10% chance). One factor that is likely to offset the fog potential is an area of mid and high level clouds that will be streaming southeast across the area associated with a dampening upper level shortwave. While the clouds will help offset the fog potential, they should also help keep temperatures from falling as much as they otherwise could. In light of this, lows tonight are expected to be 5-10 degrees warmer tonight compared to this morning for most areas. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3:30 AM Thursday...Dry conditions will persist until the start of next week when a lingering front will bring multiple days of low-end rain chances. Friday - Sunday...A broad upper ridge will increase heights over ENC through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will move eastward and become centered off the NC coast. These features will support dry conditions with above average temperatures. Coastal plain highs near 80 and OBX highs near 70 on Friday will increase to the mid-80s and mid-70s on Saturday. Sunday will be nearly a copy/paste temperature forecast with areas closer to the coast potentially warming up just a couple of degrees. Monday - Wednesday...Conditions will become more unsettled at the start of next week as the upper ridge breaks down and the pattern becomes more progressive. Late Monday/early Tuesday, a mid-level closed low will move eastward across the Great Lakes. The weak surface cold front associated with this feature will support slight chance to low-end chance PoPs that will stick around through Wednesday as the front lingers in the area. PWATs ramp up to over 1.5" Monday night and Tuesday, potentially bringing much needed rain to ENC, most of which is suffering from moderate drought conditions. Highs will remain near 80 across the coastal plain and low- to mid-70s at the beaches. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Friday/... As of 115 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGES - VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours A weak cold front is still expected to move south through ENC overnight, with a slight bump up in northeasterly winds by sunrise Thursday. Northeasterly winds will then become southeasterly later this afternoon and early this evening as the daily seabreeze advances inland through all of ENC. In the wake of the seabreeze, low-level moisture will gradually increase, which may open the door for BR/MIFG Thursday night. Right now, the probability of this occurring is LOW (<10% chance). LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the period with winds gusting to 15-20 kt each afternoon. The forecast remains dry until Monday afternoon/evening when a slight chance of showers is introduced due to a passing cold front. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 200 AM Thursday... KEY MESSAGES - Relatively quiet boating conditions through tonight A weak cold front is still expected to slide south through the ENC waters this morning, accompanied by a modest bump up in northeasterly winds (10-20kt). Looking upstream across the coastal waters of Virginia, there doesn`t appear to be a significant uptick in winds quite yet, and it is possible that guidance is overdoing the bump up in winds with this front. Regardless, marine headlines are not anticipated with this front. For the coastal waters, seas of 1-3 ft this morning may build to 2-4 ft in the wake of today`s weak cold front passage. Seas then lay back down to 1-3 ft by tonight. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 3:15 AM Thursday...High pressure will become centered off the NC coast on Friday, veering the winds to the SSW and increasing to around 15 kt with building 2-3 ft seas. Winds remain SWerly on Saturday but increase in magnitude as the pressure gradient over ENC becomes pinched between the Bermuda High and the low over southern Quebec. Gusts will be strongest across the northern waters (25+ kt), but all waters will be near SCA criteria by Saturday afternoon/evening. During this time, seas will build to 3-4 ft (5 ft near Gulf Stream). The pressure gradient will relax on Sunday with SW winds at 10-15 kt, gusts near 15-20 kt, and 2-3 ft seas through the remainder of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 200 AM Thursday... A weak, and dry, cold front is still forecast to slide south through ENC this morning, with a bump up in northeasterly winds possible. Inland, the airmass will be very dry, with the relative humidity (RH) expected to fall into the 20s and 30s percent. Later this afternoon into this evening, the seabreeze will advance inland all the way through ENC, and is expected to lead to a southeasterly wind shift and higher RH. Despite the dry airmass in place today, the lack of stronger winds should limit fire concerns. For any ongoing, or planned, burns, please be mindful of the NE to SE wind shift with the seabreeze today. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...OJC AVIATION...RM/OJC MARINE...RM/OJC FIRE WEATHER...MHX