414 FXUS62 KRAH 050623 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 220 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A developing area of low pressure along the GA/SC coast will track northward over eastern portions of the Carolinas through tonight, then shift off the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 910 PM Wednesday... Minor changes with this evenings forecast update. The plume of moisture is located off the SC coast this evening and expected to move inland overnight. While the rain has held off with the deep dry layer intact according to the 00z sounding from GSO, it is still expected to slowly creep into the region overnight and bring steady rain through early Thursday morning. Areas across the region are expected to have periods of heavy rain during the morning commute before becoming more scattered in coverage. Lows overnight will be in the low 60s north to mid/upper 60s south. As of 330 PM Wednesday...Deep dryness was observed in both the GSO and MHX RAOBs this morning, and the initial rain shield that will be falling from lowering high through mid-level ceilings early tonight will have a difficult time overcoming sub-cloud dryness. While a few sprinkles may result this evening, measurable rain is unlikely to materialize until later tonight-Thu morning, when low-level forcing and moisture transport increase into the srn half of cntl NC, and probably into the Triangle around the time of the Thu morning commute. Low temperatures in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 410 PM Wednesday... *Wet, with a risk of a short-lived tornado or two and isolated instances of flash flooding A shortwave trough from the srn Appalachians to the e-cntl Gulf will deamplify while lifting newd and across and offshore the Carolinas and srn Middle Atlantic. It will be immediately preceded by an area of diabatically-amplified mid-level vorticity from the area of precipitation and embedded convection now centered over the Savannah Basin, and an associated plume of PWs of around 2.0" and 150% of normal. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop late tonight from the Heart of GA to cntl SC, then track generally and slowly newd across the srn Piedmont and wrn Sandhills of NC on Thu and cntl and nrn Coastal Plain Thu night. Rain will become increasingly-widespread, and moderate to heavy at times over the srn half of cntl NC, early Thu morning, then spread newd within a zone of low-level frontogenesis and isentropic ascent and moisture transport that will all maximize along and immediately northwest of the track of the slow-moving surface low. Despite widespread, multi-layered cloudiness, surface theta-e advection ahead of the low will support the development of weak surface-based instability. Additionally, despite generally weak deep layer flow, strongly veering wind profiles from ely at the surface to wswly at 3 km will support clockwise-curved hodographs between 0-3km and 150- 250 m2/s2 effective helicity and supportive of mini-supercells. Such environments, particularly ones with low LCLs like that forecast for Thursday, are characteristic of tropical tornado environments and are similar to that which supported the back-to-back days of tornadoes in Edgecombe Co. in May. Rain and storms will gradually edge ewd and out of cntl NC Thu night, with clearing and areas of fog, perhaps dense, possible over the far nw through srn NC Piedmont Fri morning. Clouds and precipitation will otherwise keep temperatures Thu about 8-10 F below average and in the 70s, followed by seasonably mild and humid lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 PM Wednesday... KEY POINTS: - Unsettled weather during much of this long term period with lowest rain chances on Friday and highest rain chances on Tuesday. Above- climo rain chances the remaining days. - Temps near to slightly above normal. The long term period will be defined by daily, mostly diurnal, shower and thunderstorm chances each day, as slowly-evolving broad upper trough transits across the NE quadrant of North America, all while sending shorter-wavelength disturbances across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast states. A series of relatively weak cold fronts accompanying each of the upper short waves will approach and stall or fizzle out across our area during this time, all of which will contribute the daily shower/tstm chances. Of the days in the long term, the driest day (PoP <20%) will be Friday, thanks to our area briefly being in the subsident region behind the departing sfc low that was noted in the near and short term periods. The wettest day (PoPs in the likely range) may end up being Tuesday given that the sharpest of the short waves will be passing by that day. PoPs for the remaining days in the long-term will generally be in the chance range, again, mainly diurnal in nature. Daytime temps during this time will generally be around or slightly above normal (highs in the mid to upper 80s) given that the longwave trough axis and frontal positions will remain mainly to our west most of the period. Night-time lows will be several degrees above normal (upper 60s to around 70) due to the extensive cloud coverage. Finally, for those with outdoor activities this weekend... the best chance for rain both Saturday and Sunday will be mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, while the overnight and morning hours should be mostly dry. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 220 AM Thursday... A developing area of low pressure along the GA/SC coast will track northward over eastern portions of the Carolinas through tonight, then shift off the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Friday. Tropical moisture lifting northward in association with this system will support increasing showers from the south between 09 to 15z. Rain may become heavy at times during the afternoon and early evening, with scattered thunderstorms also possible, especially at KFAY, and to a less extent at KRDU and KRWI. Flight restrictions are expected to deteriorate to IFR at most terminals, with some brief periods of LIFR possible. If the heavier rain/showers remain east of the KINT and KGSO, those sites could remain MVFR or even experience low-end VFR conditions. Between 00 to 03z Friday, bulk of rain and storms will shift east of the area, with only isolated showers possible across the eastern terminals. As the area of low pressure shifts towards the coast, drier air on the back side of the system will allow the sub-VFR ceilings at KINT and KGSO to improve to VFR. However, ceilings at KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI ceilings are expected to remain LIFR to IFR until after daybreak Friday. Outlook: Scattered showers/storms will be possible around the Triad terminals Fri afternoon/evening. A series of fronts moving into and stalling over the region will bring an unsettled period Sat through Wed for showers/storms each afternoon and potential for sub-VFR fog/stratus each morning. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL/MWS NEAR TERM...CA/MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...np AVIATION...CBL/Hartfield