937 FXUS62 KRAH 042313 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 713 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool Canadian high pressure will extend into the region from the north through mid week, although a series of upper level disturbances moving over the region will bring increasingly wet and unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 210 PM Monday... * Generally dry through tonight E of Hwy 1, while patchy light rain moves into the west late. * Lows will a bit higher than this morning but still below normal. The cool surface high centered near James Bay early this afternoon will continue to extend down through central NC as it drifts slowly E through tonight, keeping the surface frontal zone suppressed well to our S. While GOES layer WV imagery shows fairly dry air over most of central NC, a plume of higher moisture corresponding to an area of above-normal PW is evident from the central Gulf NNE through GA, and as this continues to advect with the mean flow into the western Carolinas tonight, the column will become increasingly saturated, esp above 850 mb, from the mountains into the W Piedmont. Forcing for ascent will also ramp up in the form of a mid level perturbation near the AL/GA border projected to track NE over W NC through tonight, as well as a shot of moist isentropic upglide at 295-305K, and the recent CAM runs agree fairly well on light rain spreading into western sections, mainly W of Hwy 1, starting this evening. It`s not assured that cloud bases will be low, and lingering relatively dry air in the low levels (resulting from the surface ridge) may help limit amounts through tonight. Expect pleasant weather for the rest of the afternoon, with highs ranging from near 80 to 85, plentiful sunshine, and dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s. High and mid level clouds will increase from the S and W through tonight, helping to curb cooling a bit as our low level CAA briefly lessens. Lows 59-67, slightly above this morning`s lows. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Monday... Slightly above normal PW will continue to overspread central NC gradually Tue, yielding an increasing cloud trend, thickest west. Continued weak but deepening forcing for ascent will include slackening but eastward-expanding moist upglide in the low levels, periodic mid level perturbations moving through W and central NC from SSW to NNE, and modest upper divergence in the right entrance region of a reloading jet from the S OH through New England. The resulting light precip, mainly over the N and W Piedmont within the deeper moisture and better lift, is likely to induce a mesohigh that will sharpen the wedging surface ridge, and this plus the circulation around offshore surface lows (including TS Dexter) should help enhance low level CAA into the N/W Piedmont, maintaining a feed of lower dewpoints into the CWA and reinforcing the stable pool. Statistical guidance for highs over the Triad region has trended steadily down in recent runs, which makes sense in this regime, so have nudged temps down in our NW to around 70, while keeping highs in the upper 70s/low 80s along the Hwy 1 corridor with low-mid 80s SE, although if cloud cover ends up more than expected, these could be too warm. Regarding pops, will have chance to low-end likely W of Hwy 1 with slight or no pops E Tue morning, before expanding chance pops areawide except slight chance NE Tue afternoon. Instability (even elevated) is lacking, so expect primarily a stratiform precip character, although an isolated storm could sneak into the SW. Will carry chance pops W and slight chance in the Coastal Plain Tue night, although confidence in forecast details begins to slip as forcing features aloft become weaker in the light steering flow. Expect lows from the low 60s NW to upper 60s/near 70 SE with increasing chances for low clouds and fog overnight. -GIH && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 135 PM Monday... * There is a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday and Thursday, with isolated flooding possible, mainly in urban areas. * Mainly diurnally driven showers and storms expected each day through Monday. * Below normal temperatures continue, with gradual moderation through the weekend and into early next week. Aloft, a mid-level trough will gradually weaken but remain over and just west of the Appalachians through the week, while high pressure sits over the Desert Southwest. A weak area of low pressure will sit off the Southeast US coast will drift generally wwd to nwwd mid-late week, possibly moving inland over the Carolinas late week/weekend. At the surface, high pressure will continue ridging swwd over the Foothills through the week and weekend. While the ridge could extend across portions of the wrn and nrn Piedmont of NC, generally expect it to be shunted nwwd as the coastal low approaches and moves inland. For temperatures, as noted above, near to below normal highs and near normal lows should generally prevail, albeit moderating through the period. However, with the wedge airmass expected to be in place on Wed, there will likely be a large range in highs, with a sharp gradient between the Triad and Triangle. The range and gradient should both decrease through the end of the week. Highs could return to near normal by Monday. As for precipitation, generally expect more stratiform rain north of the wedge boundary (though there could be some elevated instability), with increasingly convective character east/south of it, especially as the low approaches the Carolina coast and moves inland Fri-Sun. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 711 PM Monday... 00Z Tuesday update: Latest guidance suggests better chances for prevailing MVFR/IFR ceilings at KINT/KGSO early Tuesday morning and possibly lasting through the end of the 24 hr TAF period. Updated KINT/KGSO to reflect these trends. Also added -RA to KRDU/KFAY late Tuesday morning/early afternoon. Previous 18Z discussion: VFR conditions will persist for much of the 24 hour TAF period. However, multi-layer cloudiness will expand across central NC this evening and overnight. A wave of light rain/drizzle may reach KINT/KGSO overnight. Associated low-level moisture could produce periods of sub-VFR ceilings at these terminals through mid Tuesday morning. However, confidence isn`t high enough to prevail sub-VFR conditions. KRDU/KFAY/KRWI shouldn`t be impacted by this low-level moisture plume. Any lingering sub-VFR ceilings at KINT/KGSO should lift by mid to late Tuesday morning, but additional light rain may be possible through the end of the 24 hour TAF period. Outlook: Areas of stratiform rain and flight restrictions will probably develop at INT/GSO Tue, then continue at times through most of the upcoming week. Some convective elements and embedded thunder may also result there by early Wed. Probability of rain and flight restrictions will be less at ern sites. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...Luchetti/MWS