602 FXUS62 KGSP 110546 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 146 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A more typical summertime pattern kicks off the new week as daily chances for afternoon thunderstorms return. Temperatures remain at or below normal, but gradually warm through the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM: Periods of drizzle and a bands of showers will move northeast across the area early this morning in southeasterly low level upslope flow and upglide. Patchy fog also develops. The weak damming high moves off shore through the period with a deepening moist southeasterly flow developing. This will keep upslope flow and isentropic lift across the area along with deepening moisture. Expect bands of showers to move northeast across the area through the day. Despite the southeasterly flow, clouds and precip will keep highs a few degrees cooler than on Sunday. This will keep CAPE muted as well. Still, a few TSRA will be possible given the weak instability and lift. Brief heavy rainfall will be possible in any storms or strong showers that develop. Still, the overall flood threat is low. These conditions continue overnight with similar clouds and shower activity. Lows will be around normal. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 125 AM EDT Monday: Not a whole lot of change with the short term as the typical summertime pattern continues. Synoptically, a trough over the central CONUS gets reabsorbed into the general flow aloft. By midweek, the southern CONUS is under very broad and weak flow. For the southeast including the CWA, high pressure off the coastline allow for continued moisture advection as surface winds become S/SW. Guidance keeps most of the south in a broad warm sector for the short term and into the next with PWATs well at or above the 2" mark. Thankfully, height rises are not as stout, keeping the temperatures from skyrocketing. Higher dewpoints, but temps remain closer to normal. Additionally, with the added moisture and increased instability, the chances for daily showers and thunderstorms also goes up. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons have categorical PoPs (70-85%) across the mountains and a chance elsewhere. Guidance keeps the QPF response rather low, which is to be expected for diurnally driven convection. However, any areas that receive multiple showers and thunderstorms could have an isolated risk of flash flooding. Will continue to monitor. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Monday: For the extended period, there isn`t a lot of variation from the previous forecast. The regions till remains under broad flow as the jet stream remains further north. By Thursday, guidance suggests slight height rises, which allow for the temps to increase a bit with heat indices reaching the low triple digits again, but only in a few isolated locations south of I-85. Guidance quickly lets off the gas for increasing heights and retreats from any reoccurring heat wave. So all in all, no strong signal for ridiculously hot temps or reaching any Heat Advisory criteria in the foreseeable forecast period. Meanwhile, this broad flow aloft keeps the area in the typical summertime pattern with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the period. The CWA remains in this open and very broad warm sector engulfing the south. For this, PoPs are more consistent and remain around chance (40-65%) for the mountains and slight chance (25-35%) elsewhere each afternoon through the end of the week. QPF is minimal but areas that receive multiple showers or thunderstorms could see an isolated flash flood risk. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR cigs and scattered showers are spreading across the area early this morning. Cigs drop to IFR before daybreak with vsby restrictions generally limited to brief periods of showers moving through. That said, KAVL and KHKY likely see a period of MVFR vsby even outside of showers. Periods of drizzle are also expected this morning. Wind will be mainly ENE during this time, but ESE at KCLT and light and variable at KAVL. As the boundary layer deepens and the wedge breaks down, the wind should come around to ESE or SE in the early afternoon. The lowest deck should scatter out and leave us with bkn MVFR ceilings at most terminals. Showers will be intermittent with temporary restrictions possible, but details will be left out for the time being. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible, but uncertainty in timing and coverage is enough to keep out of the TAFs at this time. IFR cigs return late in the evening with continued intermittent showers with light and variable winds. Outlook: Daily diurnal showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions return across the area each day this week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...RWH SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...RWH