776 FXUS62 KGSP 082357 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 757 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms return late Monday with a quieter pattern emerging through mid-week. Another round of unsettled weather could return toward the end of the week and into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 609 PM: No major changes to the forecast this evening. Convection has failed to develop, even in the NC Piedmont, where some of the CAMs continue to depict ongoing showers / thunderstorms that don`t exist. Instead...a widespread cu field remains in place but with little sign of any vertical development. Otherwise...a fair weather night is expected with a weak high pressure ridge moving in at the sfc. Mtn valley fog will be possible. Low temps will be a degree or two above normal. As for Monday, with the weak high moving overhead and some short-wave ridging, the balance of the day will be fair with low precip chances. That changes as we work thru the afternoon and another wave/MCV rotating around the bottom of the trof across the Southeast will begin to affect our region. Precip probs increase from the west into the late afternoon. The main concern there would be the severe storm potential, what with a Slight Risk on the Day 2 Convective Outlook across parts of the region. At this point, the buoyancy and shear look more favorable to our south and west, with the gradient across the Lakelands and along the TN/NC border into early evening, though some southwesterly advection of shear and buoyancy are noted. Temps will be warm once again. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Showers and Thunderstorms Return Monday Evening into Early Tuesday Morning 2) Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms May Develop Tuesday Afternoon and Early Evening but Confidence is Low 3) Drier Conditions Return Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Night A cold front will approach out of the west Monday evening into late Monday night before tracking across the forecast area Tuesday. This will allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front Monday evening into Monday night and with the 12Z CAMs are in fair agreement that widespread convection will develop, have likely PoPs (60% to 70%) for most locations during this timeframe. A few strong to severe storms are possible Monday evening into late Monday night, with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. However, an isolated,brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out but confidence on the tornado threat is low. Drier conditions will develop from west to east during the early morning hours Tuesday as activity pushes east. However, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop directly along the front late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. With low confidence on this being low, capped PoPs to chance (20% to 25%) on Tuesday. Sfc high pressure builds in behind the departing front Tuesday evening and will linger over the forecast area through Wednesday night allowing dry conditions to return. Cooler highs return on Tuesday, ending up near normal to just below normal. Highs warm up a few degrees on Wednesday, becoming near normal to just above normal. Lows each night will end up a few to several degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: 1) Dry Conditions May Linger through Thursday 2) Unsettled Weather Returns Friday and Lingers into the Weekend 3) Warm with Above Normal Temps Expected Sfc high pressure will linger over the area on Thursday but will slowly retreat northward. How far north the high retreats will determine how quick moisture will return to the area from the south. The latest GFS and Canadian keep dry conditions across the CWA through Thursday while the latest ECMWF shows moisture returning from the south throughout the day. Thus, capped PoPs to chance (15% to 25%) for now with models not being in great agreement. Global mode guidance generally agrees that unsettled weather returns Friday and lingers through the weekend. Thus, have high-end chance to low- end likely PoPs (40% to 60%) in place each day. Moisture may linger each night so capped PoPs to chance (25% to 50%) during the overnight hours. Highs each day will end up a few degrees above normal, with lows each night ending up several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Gusts have abated for the evening, and all sites have long gone VFR. Isolated showers over the northwestern Piedmont aren`t expected to directly impact any of the TAF sites...although they may linger in the vicinity of HKY over the next 1-2 hours. Showers will vanish after sunset, and generally clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail overnight. The exception will be the mountain valleys...with KAVL expected to develop MVFR to IFR fog leading up to daybreak. This should scatter out quickly after the sun comes up, however...and give way to, once again, VFR conditions most of the day. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours Monday, but coverage appears too low to warrant a mention in the 00z TAFs. In the final hours of the TAF period, a decaying MCS will approach from the west Monday night, and coverage should ramp up sharply. This isn`t captured in the 00z TAFs for the most part, except for KCLT, where a PROB30 for TSRA has been introduced. Outlook: Active weather will continue most of Monday night, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected. This activity will push east by Tuesday morning, giving way to VFR conditions thereafter. There will be potential for late night and early morning fog and low stratus restrictions each day. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...MPR/PM SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...MPR