772 FXUS62 KRAH 092352 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 752 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances will move through the Mid Atlantic region through Tuesday night, bringing stormy weather, particularly this evening through Tuesday evening. The shower and storm chances will push southeast and decrease Wednesday, as high pressure approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Monday... * Shower/storm chances will increase late today and esp this evening. A few strong to severe storms with locally heavy rain and damaging wind gusts remain possible across southern sections. Forecast is on track, with scattered tcu and high thin clouds giving way to increasing rain chances tonight. GOES layer WV imagery continues to show deeply dry air over central and eastern NC, and 12z soundings and recent hi-res models showing below-normal PW over the area, with a neutral to sinking column behind a weak shortwave trough that exited off the Mid Atlantic this morning. The morning CINH has vanished with increased heating and mixing under fair to clear skies resulting in the current marginal to moderate SBCAPE over the area, 500 J/kg W ranging to ~2000 J/kg in our E. Extrapolation of upstream activity and the latest CAM runs still support convection both approaching and initiating in our S late toward evening, perhaps associated with an onshore-moving sea breeze augmented by the increasing CAPE. Current effective bulk shear from RAP-based analyses remains marginal but is likely to improve to 35- 40 kt by this evening, as the approaching shortwave trough over E KY/TN/MS swings around the base of the large mid level gyre centered over MI. Temps have already warmed to above-normal readings in the mid 80s to lower 90s, under strong insolation and with minimal cloud cover so far. As evening approaches, the shortwave trough coupled with influence from nearby MCVs and mid level height falls will boost forcing for ascent amidst improving mid level cyclonic flow over NC and rebounding PWs, to support scattered to numerous showers and storms, moving in from the S and W this evening and persisting overnight, although no one location will see rain this entire time. The coverage doesn`t support a widespread flooding threat, although any clusters of slow-moving or meandering storms could produce locally high rainfall totals. While neither the expected skinny SBCAPE or bulk shear are expected to be particularly high, we could still see a few discrete cells produce damaging wind gusts, as these cells feed on 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE with the rising bulk shear, but waning SBCAPE with loss of heating should curb this threat to just isolated occurrences. With skies trending mostly cloudy to overcast, expect warm lows tonight in the mid 60s to lower 70s. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Monday... Tonight`s shortwave trough and 2+" PW area will persist into Tue morning but shift ENE by midday, along with the higher coverage of convection, placing areas NW of Hwy 1 in a brief relative precip lull. The mid level low over N MI into central ON early Tue will swing NE into QC, with the broad and increasingly baggy trailing trough axis still extending SSW through the E Ohio Valley to the Deep South. As a result, as the steering flow becomes roughly parallel to the associated surface cold front, this front is likely to lose its propulsion and hang up somewhere over the W Piedmont. Skies should be generally mostly cloudy to overcast through much of the day, esp in the E, limiting insolation and heating and thus likely keeping CAPE marginal at most. But we`ll still be beneath the right entrance region of the upper jet core with non-zero DPVA, and with mid level flow remaining cyclonic at about 25-35 kts, a few embedded strong water-loaded storms may still occur, esp in the E where the higher PW will reside and where rain coverage will be greatest. After a short period of just 20-40% pops W-to-E in the morning, expect a trend to good chance (W) to likely (E) pops, highest pops along and E of Hwy 1, with rain chances trending down and out W to E Tue night. With clouds limiting heating, expect lower highs, in the 80s areawide. As the surface front drifts a bit E and becomes more SW-NE oriented Tue night, some lower dewpoints should start to work into the Triad, as weak surface high pressure attempts to build in from our NW overnight. Expect lows from the low-mid 60s NW to upper 60s-around 70 SE. -GIH && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 205 PM Monday... By Wednesday morning, the cold front should have pushed through the forecast area and be hung up somewhere along the Atlantic coastline. Recent model guidance has shifted the axis of precipitation slightly farther to the west, and have accordingly increased the chance of precipitation slightly, although it will still primarily be southeastern counties that will have the chance for rain. As the boundary pivots on Thursday, the chance for storms will also pivot, generally bringing a chance of thunderstorms to the south of US-64. By Friday, the chance of storms should return to all locations as the boundary lifts to the north through North Carolina during the day. As central North Carolina returns to the warm sector over the weekend, have gone with likely showers and thunderstorms, capping at high chances on Monday due to convective uncertainty a week out. Temperatures will be warm throughout the extended forecast, with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 90s and lows ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 752 PM Monday... 24 hour TAF period: An initial cluster of storms are currently sliding just southeast of KFAY early this evening. This cluster will likely continue ene and slide south of KRWI. Beyond this initial cluster, additional showers and storms upstream over the mountains and western SC will migrate into central NC through early tonight. These showers and storms may cause brief restrictions and gusty conditions at any of our terminals generally between ~02 and 06Z. Showers and storms should move east of the area or dissipate overnight. However, sub-VFR stratus will develop at all terminals (generally MVFR to IFR range) and linger through ~15 to 17Z Tuesday. Additional showers and storms are then possible later Tuesday afternoon and evening. Outlook: A cold front will move into and possibly stall over, the area Tue eve night behind the convection, with largely dry, VFR conditions expected in its wake through at least Wed night. Chances for aft/eve convection increase from Thu-Sat, accompanied by the usual restrictions. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Luchetti/KC