875 FXUS62 KGSP 142259 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 659 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Abundant moisture over the Southeast will keep scattered to numerous showers with mainly afternoon thunderstorms through Friday. As a somewhat shallow upper ridge continues over our region during the weekend and early next week, temperatures remain near normal. Afternoon thunderstorms become more isolated to scattered from Sunday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 106 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) A weak cold front crosses the area today, spurring a round of convection with potential to cause isolated nuisance flooding. 2) Muggy weather continues, with a little relief expected tomorrow behind the front. Largely quiet conditions at the moment. Patchy fog and low stratus was less pronounced this morning than previous mornings, and has largely scattered out at this point in time, leaving behind partly sunny skies and a developing cumulus field across most of the Upstate and NC mountains. Remnants of morning rainfall we received several hours ago are now well east of the I-77 corridor...leaving us dry, for the moment. Temperatures are on track to climb near or slightly cooler than yesterday`s highs...which is to say they`ll be near normal. A cold front presently draped across the Ohio Valley and extending into the Mid-Atlantic will sag south through the forecast period...within an otherwise unperturbed upper pattern. A z500 trough axis will steadily track eastward from its current position in eastern Texas through the day, but will not arrive in the Tennessee Valley until early Friday...so outside of the advancing front, there`ll be little forcing to trigger convective initiation. Like the previous few days, CAMs indicate that convection will begin on ridgetops in the NC mountains, then make a run at the low terrain, expanding into the Upstate and Foothills before collapsing farther east. Broken record here to say...that it still appears severe risk is low given an unimpressive parameter space with poor lapse rates, sbCAPE < 2000 J/kg, and insignificant dCAPE...and heavy rainfall is more of a concern. Even then, heavy rainfall shouldn`t be as big of an issue today given overall less shower/storm coverage than previous days, and less potential for training as storms generally follow the advancing frontal boundary. Tonight, subsidence behind the front will bring a swift end to convection, as well as inhibit the chances of low stratus development outside the mountains. Skies should remain mostly clear overnight, while winds turn out of the NNW. Fog and low stratus are still expected in the mountains. Little change is expected to dewpoints despite the front; modest drop in dewpoints can be expected during the afternoon Friday owing to subtle drying aloft behind the front...but profiles will overall be too moist for much dewpoint reduction due to mixing. Temperatures, meanwhile, will actually climb a category warmer than today, as low-level thicknesses subtly increase over the area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 125 pm Thursday: Saturday will be a bit of a transitional period for the Southeast, as it will be the last day before the subtropical ridge truly becomes the dominant synoptic weather feature for the region. Strong insolation and abundant low level moisture is forecast to yield robust instability during the afternoon, with forecast soundings featuring low LFCs in an uncapped environment. As such, at least climatological coverage of diurnal showers and storms is expected in our area, with scattered- to-numerous coverage (50-60 PoPs) forecast over the mountains and generally widely scattered activity expected across the remainder of the CWA. Instability is expected to be adequate to support a few strong-to-marginally severe pulse storms. By Sunday, the ridge axis extending from the upper anticyclone centered over the mid-Miss Valley is expected to nudge into the southern Appalachians and vicinity, resulting in increasingly warm and suppressed forecast profiles. This should result in considerably less coverage of convection Sunday afternoon/evening...and small PoPs of 20-30% are confined to the mountains south of I-40. Max temps are forecast to be around normal through the weekend, with min temps expected to be a couple of degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 pm Thursday: The axis of an upper ridge will remain over the forecast area through roughly the first half of the extended, resulting in seasonably hot conditions, with generally slightly-above normal temps forecast through the first half of the period. The first couple of days of the work week are also expected to be relatively inactive convectively speaking, with at most isolated-to-widely scattered activity forecast each day. By the middle of the week, heights are forecast to begin falling slightly across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, as a series of short wave troughs progress across southern Canada and the far northern Conus. This will allow for a slight cool down by Thursday (temps slightly below climo) along with increasing chances for diurnal convection. PoPs will generally range in the 50-60% range over the mountains Wed and Thu, with general 30-40% probabilities over the Piedmont and foothills. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: A few scattered showers and an isolated storm continue to linger across the area early this evening. Activity should dissipate shortly after sunset with a rather quiet overnight otherwise. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out at any given terminal, but confidence remains low outside of KAVL and potentially KHKY. Tomorrow will be similar with another round of scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Winds will be light and variable through the period. Outlook: Afternoon showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions are expected across the area through the weekend. Morning fog and low stratus are also possible, especially across the mountain valleys. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...JDL LONG TERM...JDL AVIATION...TW