879
FXUS62 KRAH 180610
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 105 AM
EST Thu Dec 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A wedge front will develop and become quasi-stationary over the
western Piedmont of the Carolinas and Virginia today and tonight,
then be overtaken by a cold front that will sweep across the region
Friday morning. Following high pressure will migrate quickly
eastward and across and offshore the Southeast through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

A warming trend continues today with weak high pressure centered off
the coast to our south. This afternoon, southwesterly winds should
continue to gust up to around 25 mph in the south and east,
diminishing around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. High
temperatures this afternoon should peak in the low 50s in the
northwest to the low 60s in the southeast, which is up to 10 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Tonight, temperatures look to
drop generally into the mid 30s to around 40, with some locations in
the northeast dipping below freezing. By late morning, light rain
will start to approach the region from the southeast ahead of the
next frontal system, however any rain currently looks to hold off
until after sunrise Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wednesday...

By Thursday morning, strong low pressure will be over the northern
Plains, with a cold front extending south into Texas. In addition,
there will be a weak low along the North Carolina coast with a
coastal front. Both synoptic and high-resolution models are showing
rain moving in from the southwest Thursday morning more quickly than
previous runs, although it does not appear that the morning rain
will be particularly heavy. The chance for rain and amounts will
increase through the afternoon into the overnight hours, with
widespread rain across the region Thursday night as the cold front
approaches central North Carolina. With limited instability, the
chance for a thunderstorm appears to be limited to southernmost
locations in the forecast area, with thunderstorms likely remaining
to the south and east of the region. Rainfall should be between a
half inch and three quarters of an inch - helpful rainfall
considering the drought, but not enough to change the drought status.

The temperature forecast remains tricky. Temperatures in the Triad
now appear that they will be higher than previously thought, rising
into the mid 50s. The high temperature forecast for the rest of the
forecast area remains mostly unchanged, with values as high as the
upper 60s in the southeast. As for overnight temperatures, while
locations in the southeast will fall to around 60 degrees in the
evening, most other locations should have the temperature remain
nearly steady state during the overnight hours.

Friday: A trailing northern-stream trough and attendant cold front
will move east across the area through midday Friday. A weakening
band of pre-frontal convection should exit the eastern counties by
mid to late morning, followed by strong synoptic-scale subsidence
and clearing for the second half of the day. The west-to-east
frontal passage will result in a broad range of highs, from the
lower to mid 50s across the northwest to the lower to mid 60s across
the southeast. Friday night will be chilly, with lows ranging from
the mid to upper 20s north to the lower 30s south, then seasonable
Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1140 PM Wednesday...

* Dry (mostly), with unseasonably mild conditions Sun and Wed that
  will bookend a couple of days of unseasonably cool ones Mon-Tue

An amplified but moisture-starved shortwave trough will progress
from the lwr Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada Sun-Sun night. A
prolonged period of wnwly flow will follow and prevail around a sub-
tropical high and low amplitude ridge that will progress from Baja
CA to the nrn Gulf and Gulf Coast states through mid-week. Within
that regime, a mid-level frontal zone and band of WAA and lift will
progress across the Appalachians and Middle Atlantic on Tue.

At the surface, cntl NC on Sun will likely be between a couple of
frontal zones that will progress across the OH Valley/Middle
Atlantic and Southeast, respectively, with the former a moisture-
starved one that will likely move south and across cntl NC Late Sun
into early Sun night. Following, continental Polar high pressure,
strong and near 1040 mb over OH/WV at the start of the period, will
weaken while building across and offshore the srn Middle Atlantic
Mon-Tue, then settle into the Southeast on Wed. The presence and
influence of the cP high and associated dry air will favor both
cooler than average temperatures and mainly dry conditions, with the
exception to the latter being a chance of light rain or sprinkles
accompanying the aforementioned mid-level WAA regime and ceilings
over the far nrn NC Piedmont on Tue. Return flow around the high
will favor moderating/milder temperatures for Christmas Eve.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 AM Thursday..

VFR to continue at GSO/INT through 12Z and RDU/FAY/RWI through
around 18Z

Low level moisture will increase rapidly today ahead of a strong
system approaching from the west. Expect to see low clouds and
showers increasing from CLT to GSO/INT this morning by 15-18Z, with
ceilings falling to IFR this afternoon widespread rain sets in
several hours.  In addition, fog is expected to develop and could
become dense around INT and GSO this evening and overnight.

To the east, the lowering of ceilings will be a little slower with a
few scattered showers late this morning and this afternoon, followed
by a trend towards IFR tonight by around 00Z.

The system will also bring strong winds, initially aloft in the form
of low level wind shear this evening, but with time we expect
southerly wind gusts to around 20kt  to more frequently reach the
surface, and more isolated 25 to 30 gusts  will possible later
tonight and early Friday as the cold front moves through the area.
Outlook: The front will sweep west to east through Friday morning
ushering in drier air with sites returning to VFR by early to mid
Friday morning. Post-frontal nwly gusts of 20 to 25 kts will be
possible Friday afternoon especially at KRDU/KRWI. High pressure and
associated VFR conditions will then persist through the remainder of
the extended period. A dry cold front may produce gusty nwly sfc
winds Sunday night/early Monday morning in the 20 to 25 kt range.

Outlook: The front will sweep west to east through Friday morning
ushering in drier air with sites returning to VFR by early to mid
Friday morning. Post-frontal nwly gusts of 20 to 25 kts will be
possible Friday afternoon especially at KRDU/KRWI. High pressure and
associated VFR conditions will then persist through the remainder of
the extended period. A dry cold front may produce gusty nwly sfc
winds Sunday night/early Monday morning in the 20 to 25 kt range.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...LH
SHORT TERM...Green/CBL
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS