182 FXUS62 KRAH 122349 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 748 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface trough will lead to persistent warm, humid, and showery conditions into Wednesday. The Bermuda high-pressure will help maintain these conditions through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 239 PM Tuesday... * Showers and storms will continue through the afternoon and evening hours. * Isolated flash flooding is possible, especially across the urban areas. As high pressure off the coast weakens, southeasterly flow will veer to a southwesterly flow this afternoon and evening. PW values are still well above normal (2+ inches) and in addition to slow moving storms and higher rain rates within some of the cells, areas of flash flooding are possible this afternoon and evening. Earlier this morning some storms just outside our area had rain rates as high as 2-4 inches/hour, and the environment has not changed much since this morning. Therefore expecting some slow moving clusters to produce high rain rates again this afternoon and evening. CAPE values aren`t impressive, thus severe threat is near zero but a few storms could produce stronger winds gusts. One thing to note is that the amount of rain the area has seen over the past few days soil beneath trees could be softened enough where some trees could fall over due to the amount of rain, not wind gusts. A short lull from the precip overnight will be accompanied by low stratus through early morning. Most models are showing another round of precip entering the area (mainly across the western piedmont) pre-dawn and spreading across the region again through Wednesday morning. Temperatures this afternoon temps should remain in the 80s with overnight lows in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 239 PM Tuesday... * Marginal risk of flash flooding expected. Numerous showers and embedded storms are possible Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will continue to bring warm, moist air to the region on Wednesday. A few shortwave troughs are expected to move through the region Wednesday, bringing the risk for scattered to numerous showers and embedded storms to the region Wednesday afternoon into evening. PWs will remain above normal (2+ inches), so any slow- moving or training storms will have the ability to cause flash flooding. Thus, WPC has the entire CWA under a moderate risk of flash flooding. The latest HREF LPMM shows areas of 1.5-2.5 inches of rain in the northern half to central portions of the CWA. High temperatures should stay in the 80s, with low 80s in the north to mid-to-upper 80s in the south. Low temperatures overnight should be in the low-to-mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 239 PM Tuesday... * Marginal risk of flash flooding for the entirety of the CWA on Thursday and Friday, and the southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills on Saturday. * Near normal temperatures expected through the weekend, returning to slightly above normal to start the work week. Thursday and Friday, another series of shortwave troughs moving over the ridge look to bring more unsettled weather to the region. This will allow for mostly scattered showers and storms both afternoons and evenings. Due to already moist conditions and elevated PWs (2+ inches), isolated flash flooding will be possible each afternoon. Thus, WPC has the entire CWA under a marginal risk of flash flooding Thursday and Friday. Saturday through Tuesday, drier air is expected to filter into the region due to upper level ridging and multiple cold fronts that look to stall or weaken over the mid-atlantic. This will lessen rain chances for the rest of the extended period. Saturday afternoon and evening looks to have the best chance of rain over this period, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible. WPC has southeastern portions of the CWA under a moderate risk of flash flooding where the best chance for showers is located. Isolated diurnally induced showers may be possible each afternoon Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures should be near normal for the remainder of the work week. Maximum temperatures are generally expected in the mid-to- upper 80s each afternoon from Thursday through Sunday, with the possibility of a few locations in the south reaching low 90s on Friday. Monday and Tuesday should begin to warm to above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows each night should generally be in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 748 PM Tuesday... Scattered, mostly light showers with plenty of MVFR to IFR cigs will persist much of the night. There is a likelihood of lower ceilings late tonight at all sites and a few hours of IFR ceilings have been included in all TAFs. In addition, various members of the HREF indicate precip moving back into the Triad before daybreak. Conditions should improve area-wide to VFR by 15Z. Outlook: Outside of mainly diurnally driven showers and storms and morning fog/stratus, conditions should be VFR through the TAF period. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...CA SHORT TERM...Helock LONG TERM...Helock AVIATION...Badgett/Leins