387
FXUS61 KOKX 230750
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
350 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build into and south of the region into
Tuesday. A cold front briefly stalls close to the area on
Wednesday before working slowly south Thursday into Friday across
the northern Mid Atlantic states. The front will then return north
over the weekend, stalling close to the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
* Extreme Heat continues for the entire area.
The area remains under a large building upper level ridge with
surface high pressure to the southwest. Low level moisture
remains extremely high with dew points in the middle 70s for
much of the area. As daytime heating begins, rapid warming of
the surface is expected to occur under mostly clear skies.
Temperatures are expected to rise well into the 90s for much of
the area with western portions of the area possibly hitting
100. Heat index values today will generally be in the 105-110
range for much of the area with the exception of the immediate
coast, mainly Long Island and SE coastal CT. Extreme Heat
Warnings continue for these areas.
Heat advisories are in effect for SE coastal CT and much of Long
Island. Opted to expand the heat advisory to northeastern
Suffolk given the extent of heating from the previous day
precluding the heating expected today and Tuesday.
Lows tonight will be in the 70s to near 80 for the NYC metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
* Extreme Heat headlines continue into Tuesday.
* Heat lessens Wednesday but still remains hot.
Not much of a significant change in the airmass expected for
Tuesday as compared to Monday. The most significant change is a
slight lessening of the afternoon dew points due to a bit more
mixing of the lower atmosphere. Despite lower dew points,
surface temperatures may actually end up being a few degrees
hotter than Monday in most places. NE NJ, the Lower Hudson
Valley, and the NYC metro may rise into the low 100s. Even Long
Island is expected to rise into the middle to upper 90s given a
light W/SW flow. The combination of slightly hotter temperatures
and slightly lower dew points will result in heat index values
nearly identical to Monday for most places, but perhaps hotter
for coastal locations, mainly Long Island. Lows Tuesday night
will be in the middle 70s for most to low 80s for the NYC
metro.
By Wednesday morning, the ridge begins to break down a bit and
push south as the mid-levels flatten out a bit. Mid-level energy
may approach the area from the west with a slow moving weak
surface front moving into the area from the north. This may
result in the increased chance for showers and thunderstorms to
develop during the afternoon and evening.
As for the heat, temperatures Wednesday will not be as hot as
Monday or Tuesday but will still be hot enough to possibly
result in heat headlines continuing, though more in the form of
Heat Advisories as opposed to Extreme Heat Warnings. Highs will
be in the low to middle 90s for most with upper 90s possible for
the more urban areas. Lows Wednesday night will be a touch
cooler than previous nights with lows in the upper 60s to middle
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
* A more unsettled weather pattern likely develops Thursday through
the upcoming weekend.
A confluent upper flow between the northern and southern branches of
the polar jet will allow high pressure across eastern Canada to
expand into the Northeast on Thursday. This will likely give a
stalled frontal boundary across the area the needed push to sag
slowly south into the Northern Mid Atlantic by Friday. This is where
it is expected to park itself before returning north as a warm front
on Saturday. There is some uncertainty in the 00Z global guidance as
to how far south the front initially gets and then when it returns
north on Saturday, which could have a significant impact on
temperatures. The NBM is showing a large range between the 25th and
75th percentiles for temperatures, especially away from the coast
for Thursday and Saturday. The forecast area resides at the southern
edge of the westerlies during this time. The magnitude of any
shortwave energy will largely determine the position of the
boundary. It will also be unsettled with high PW air in place and a
boundary with potential waves to focus showers and thunderstorms. It
is too early to be specific with details but bouts of heavy rainfall
across the area is a possibility. It will also remain quite humid
with dew points in the 60s.
NBM deterministic temperatures during this time are generally skewed
toward the 25th percentile (cooler) while the median is skewed
toward the higher (warmer) temperatures. Using the deterministic
values in the forecast, daytime highs are generally at or just below
normal, while lows are a bit above. This is due to the close
proximity of the front, cloud cover, and rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure remains in control.
VFR thru TAF period.
Light and variable winds will become light northerly toward daybreak
with seabreezes likely at all sites except KSWF. Speeds largely at
or under 10 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of seabreeze may vary by 1-3 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Late Tuesday Night: VFR.
Wednesday: Chance of showers/tstms in the afternoon/evening mainly
for KSWF/KHPN/KTEB/KEWR.
Thursday and Friday: Chance of showers/tstms mainly in the
afternoon/evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Friday night across all
of the forecast waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the rest of the
forecast period with dry conditions prevailing.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is the potential for isolated minor coastal flooding during
the times of high tide through the upcoming week. This is due to a
new moon July 25th and high astronomical. There is little wind
forcing at this time to produce much surge. The location that have
the nest chance to see coastal flood statement will be SW CT coast
and the back bays of southern Nassau.
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at all
the ocean beaches for both Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Increasing heat may result in record high temperatures through
Tuesday.
Monday`s Record Highs (June 23):
EWR 99 / 2024
BDR 91 / 2010
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 95 / 2024 and previous years
JFK 94 / 2010
ISP 91 / 1999
Tuesday`s Record Highs (June 24):
EWR 97 / 1966
BDR 94 / 1966
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 96 / 2013
JFK 97 / 2010
ISP 96 / 1966
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>010.
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ011-
012.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>075-176-
178.
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
NYZ078>080-177-179.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...