213
FXUS61 KBGM 161933
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
233 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front may bring some isolated rain or snow showers
across northern Oneida County Wednesday. Warmer air starts
pushing into the region by tomorrow night. Temperatures will
continue to warm through Thursday and then a strong frontal
system will push through Thursday night into Friday morning. A
period of heavy rain and strong gusty winds will be likely as
the system passes. Behind the front, much colder air and lake
effect snow showers are expected to develop late Friday and
persist into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

No major weather impacts are expected through the near term
period. A weak cold front sweeps through the northern portion
of the forecast area Wednesday and this may bring some isolated
rain/snow showers north of the I90 corridor. Some light wintry
mix is also possible, but confidence was too low to keep in the
forecast at this time as QPF amounts are very light and may
completely miss our CWA to the north. Will continue to monitor
this weak weather system, but at this time, any ice accretion from
freezing rain appears unlikely.

Warm air advection starts taking hold aloft Wednesday night was
ridging builds in. Cold air will likely remain at the surface
through the night with lows in the upper teens to low 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Strong cold front will push through the region Thursday night
through Friday.

Temperatures will warm through the day on Thursday, but high
temperatures will likely not be reached until Thursday night.
Non diurnal temperatures are likely with strong warm air
advection Thursday night into early Friday morning out ahead of
the cold front. Southerly winds really ramp up out ahead of the
incoming front to 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph by
Thursday night. Temperatures should surge to well above average
levels in the afternoon, likely reaching the low to mid-40s
before sunset.

Heavy rain moves in Thursday night and possibly could see a few
embedded thunderstorms. There is potential that rainfall amounts
will reach around or just over 1 inch. At this time, rainfall
and snowmelt does not appear like it will be enough to cause any
flooding issues. Strong low level jet of 70 to 75 kts at the
850mb level pushes in overnight, but forecast sounding are
showing a fairly strong low level inversion Thursday night and
it will be tough to mix winds down to the surface, but still
think its possible for gusts up to 40 mph in any convective
showers. Stronger winds are expected on Friday morning with
FROPA and advisory level criteria could be met.

By Friday morning, the sharp cold front will be racing east
across the area, bringing falling temperatures through the day.
Any left over precipitation will eventually changeover to snow
showers by Friday afternoon as 850mb temperatures reach
-10C by sunset. There could be some minor snow accumulations,
 especially for north-central NY into the NY Thruway corridor as
 some lake enhancement develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

No significant systems are expected in the long term period, but
several fast moving systems will be possible in zonal flow.

Lake effect snow and lowing snow is likely Friday night over
the northern Susquehanna and Mohawk Valley. Lingering lake
effect snow is expected to rapidly diminish Saturday morning as
a weak surface high briefly builds in from the south. The next
warm frontal clipper system will race into the area later in the
day, bringing a chance for light snow/snow showers over the
northern half of our CWA. This system will drag another cold
front through Sunday morning. NW flow off the lakes mean more
scattered lake effect snow showers in the forecast along with
seasonably cold and blustery conditions. It will be much colder Sunday
night and Monday behind the front, with a few lingering snow
showers possible. Highly fluctuating temperatures are possible
heading into early next week, with quick moving frontal systems
looking to pass north or over the area. This type of pattern
would bring some light snow to the area, with brief warm ups as
winds turn southerly, then quick cool downs as winds veer
northwesterly behind the fast moving shortwave systems.

Looking at 250 mb mean winds into the weekend and early
next week, flow becomes fairly zonal with the jet stream
centered over NY and PA. That means the flow will be fast, with
frequent shortwaves leading to unpredictability this far out.
The long term also is not looking as cold as the lowest
temperature anomalies retreat into the NW territories and Alaska
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The low deck of clouds from this morning lingers for a few
Central NY terminals, but is slowly eroding northward. VFR
conditions expected at all terminals by the next hour.

Weak LLWS is expected to develop at all terminals after 03Z
Wednesday or so, becoming a bit stronger and more widespread
after 06Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR ceilings possible across portions of Central
NY.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday...Strong frontal passage with
rain showers, possibly mixing with or ending as snow showers
along with associated restrictions. LLWS likely Thursday into
Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday...Scattered snow showers possible across Central NY
with occasional restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...KL