563 FXUS61 KBGM 242351 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 751 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will moves through the region tomorrow, which will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong in Northeast PA and the southern Catskills. Mainly dry weather is expected on Saturday before additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... With a strong ridge of high pressure in place, temperatures early this afternoon have warmed into the mid to high 80s. Dew points have been running slightly below forecast as mixing occurs but upstream observations across Ohio into western PA have dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s that will be advecting in later today into tonight. Looking at the day cloud phase on GOES, it does look like there is some deeper convection building in the cumulus across the Twin Tiers into the Catskills. If the cloud tops begin to glaciate, chances of precipitation may need to be added for later this afternoon and evening along I-88 and south. There is also a line of showers that have developed across the Great Lakes though given the subsidence inversion in place under the upper level ridge, these thunderstorms are not expected to make it into our region. Tonight is looking warm with lows only getting down into the low 70s as the upper level ridge axis progresses east with warm air advection strengthening. Some elevated instability under falling 500 mb heights late tonight across the Finger Lakes into the Western Southern Tier could lead to a few thunderstorms developing around sunrise. Shear is good in the early morning but with surface stability, it may be hard to get severe wind gusts from reaching the surface but hail is possible in the morning. Confidence is low that storms will even form so no outlook for severe was requested. Tomorrow, a broad, low amplitude trough moves through with an associated cold front that brings showers and thunderstorms to most of the region. With increasing cloud cover ahead of the front as well as the speed of the front a little faster than previous days, temperatures were lowered across NEPA and the Southern Catskills. This brought heat indexes below 100 for the aforementioned areas so no headlines for heat were issued for tomorrow. Severe thunderstorms tomorrow are also looking isolated at best, mainly in the Catskills and NEPA where there is the most heating. Mid level lapse rates continue to be in the 5 to 5.5 C/km range with will prevent any updrafts that develop from accelerating and may even aid in slowing down updrafts. CAPE values are still good, getting into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range for MLCAPE and shear is still around 30 knots so that is still enough to get a few microburst to form. Still with the lack of mid level lapse rates, it will be tough to get any good hail cores to form to get more widespread damaging winds or hail. SPC has cut back on the marginal risk to mainly encompass NEPA into the Catskills. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The trough axis that brought the unsettled weather Friday moving to the east on Saturday with another ridge building in. Dry air in place at the surface Saturday will help keep the humidity down despite temperatures climbing back up into the mid to upper 80s. A strong ridge of high pressure in the plains with 500 mb heights approaching 600 dm puts us on the edge of the ridge as we head into Sunday. Sunday has unsettled weather return as a surface low moves into the region around the edge of the strong southern US ridge. The origins of this surface low looks to be from a large MCS that develops in the plains Friday night into Saturday. The evolution of these types of surface lows have a large amount of unpredictability prior to the formation of the MCS but almost all models have an MCS becoming an MCV this weekend as it moves into the northeast. The path of all these MCVs is all over the place in the CAMs and global models. If the low can pass into the Great Lakes and into northern NY, that puts us in the warm sector and increases our chances of severe thunderstorms but if the low can pass through the region or just to the south, then heavy rain and flash flooding will be the greater concern. Some of the models even have the MCV missing completely to the south but those are outliers right now. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... In the long term early next week, we remain on the edge of the strong Southern US ridge keeping us unsettled on the edge of the ring of fire. One thing to watch next week is Tuesdsay as global models are hinting at an elevated mixed layer advecting in. Even models that mix out the EML, there still is mid level lapse rates greater than 6 C/km in the 700mb to 500 mb range so that is still fairly good. Any MCS that forms in the northern plains may be able to sustain itself as it moves into the northeast early next week that could bring widespread winds. The EPS and GEFS ensembles have a corridor of higher than average precipitation anomalies that move through our region signaling that we will likely remain on the edge of the strong ridge for a while keeping storm chances high, even beyond this 7 day forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Conditions will VFR through the overnight hours. A frontal system drops in from the north early Friday morning and will bring ceilings down to Fuel Alt/MVFR. Along the front, there will be showers and scattered thunderstorms. Prob30 groups were added to most terminals except SYR and RME as thunderstorms chances are much lower due to a less favorable environment. This front is fairly quick to move through and all terminals will be back to VFR by the end of the TAF period. Southwesterly winds become calmer overnight. As the front moves through, winds will be briefly westerly before settling out of the northwest Friday afternoon. There will be some gusts around 15 kts tomorrow as well, though winds may be slightly stronger along the front or if within any storms that move directly over a terminal. Outlook... Friday night and Saturday...Mainly VFR. Saturday Night through Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms. Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday...Mainly VFR, restrictions from scattered showers and thunderstorms possible && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ015>018- 022>025-036-037-055-056. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG SHORT TERM...AJG LONG TERM...AJG/BJG AVIATION...BTL