676 FXUS61 KBGM 261858 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 258 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front pushes through this afternoon and evening, with scattered rain and even a few wet snow showers over the higher elevations tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure then builds over the area Sunday into Monday with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 230 PM Update... A cold front will push through the area this afternoon and evening, with winds shifting to WNW-NW and increasing between 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph tonight into Sunday. Colder air pushes in on NW flow overnight and wraparound moisture arrives as the closed mid/upper level low spins east through the Adirondacks and southern New England. 850mb temperatures drop to around -2 or -3C late tonight, and surface temperatures reach the mid-30s to lower 40s. There is some potential for snow flakes across to mix in across the higher elevations of CNY late tonight into early Sunday morning...but no accumulation expected. Clouds and light rain/drizzle linger Sunday morning, before the upper level low slides off the New England coast and ridging builds in from the west. Clearing skies expected Sunday from late morning to afternoon...lingering longest over the Catskills where the clouds may not break for some sun until late afternoon. Further back to the west, abundant sunshine is expected Sunday by afternoon, but it will still be cool with breezy NW winds. Highs will be in the 50s for most locations...except perhaps low 60s for the Chemung river valley and Wyoming Valley locations. Winds will weaken Sunday night and with clear skies, radiational cooling will drop lows into the mid to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 240 PM Update... Upper level ridge moves into the region on Monday along with high pressure. Another quiet day is in store with temperatures warming into the upper 60s to low 70s. Clear skies are expected throughout the day and overnight hours. Winds will remain calm and variable during the day before shifting south Monday evening as the ridge progresses east. This will keep temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s overnight. Clear skies and light winds may allow temperatures to fall a few degrees lower. Cold front moves in behind the upper ridge on Tuesday bringing a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms to the region. Southwest flow will advect a warm and unstable air mass ahead of the front. Model soundings show potential for strong to severe storms with CAPE values up to 1,500 J/KG. Other favorable parameters include 40 to 45 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, favorable mid level lapse rates and steep low level lapse rates. Soundings also show a cap in place for most of the day, but as temperatures warm mid afternoon the cap is expected to break. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 70s with partly sunny skies. Timing of the frontal passage appears to be late afternoon into early evening. There is still some uncertainty in the timing and how far east instability reaches. SPC has most of our region in a slight risk for severe storms with exceptions over the Western Catskills, Wyoming Valley and Pocono mountain region as instability doesn`t reach that far. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 240 PM Update... Ridge builds back in by Wednesday with high pressure west of our region. This will keep conditions dry with skies expected to clear by the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler behind the front with highs ranging in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the region. As the ridge slides east, our region again gets placed in southwesterly flow. This will allow warm moist air to get advected back into the region by Thursday. A short wave moving along with ridge will bring an initial round of showers Thursday, but the main round is expected to move through Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures will gradually warm as the week progresses with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s Thursday and Friday. Models begin to diverge by Saturday making the weekend forecast a bit uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold front pushes through the region today with showers and associated restrictions. By late evening and into the overnight period, lingering low clouds and possibly light rain showers or drizzle will continue to produce CIGs to MVFR Fuel Alt for most taf sites and possibly a period of IFR early Sunday morning. Winds will be out of west-northwest increasing to 20-25 kts. These gusty NW winds continue through the evening and overnight hours with a few gusts above 30 knots possible. Outlook... Sunday afternoon...Becoming mainly VFR. Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday...Potential for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...MPK