563
FXUS61 KBGM 242351
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
751 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will moves through the region tomorrow, which will
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could
be strong in Northeast PA and the southern Catskills. Mainly
dry weather is expected on Saturday before additional showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With a strong ridge of high pressure in place, temperatures
early this afternoon have warmed into the mid to high 80s. Dew
points have been running slightly below forecast as mixing
occurs but upstream observations across Ohio into western PA
have dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s that will be
advecting in later today into tonight. Looking at the day cloud
phase on GOES, it does look like there is some deeper convection
building in the cumulus across the Twin Tiers into the
Catskills. If the cloud tops begin to glaciate, chances of
precipitation may need to be added for later this afternoon and
evening along I-88 and south. There is also a line of showers
that have developed across the Great Lakes though given the
subsidence inversion in place under the upper level ridge, these
thunderstorms are not expected to make it into our region.

Tonight is looking warm with lows only getting down into the
low 70s as the upper level ridge axis progresses east with warm
air advection strengthening. Some elevated instability under
falling 500 mb heights late tonight across the Finger Lakes into
the Western Southern Tier could lead to a few thunderstorms
developing around sunrise. Shear is good in the early morning
but with surface stability, it may be hard to get severe wind
gusts from reaching the surface but hail is possible in the
morning. Confidence is low that storms will even form so no
outlook for severe was requested.

Tomorrow, a broad, low amplitude trough moves through with an
associated cold front that brings showers and thunderstorms to
most of the region. With increasing cloud cover ahead of the
front as well as the speed of the front a little faster than
previous days, temperatures were lowered across NEPA and the
Southern Catskills. This brought heat indexes below 100 for the
aforementioned areas so no headlines for heat were issued for
tomorrow. Severe thunderstorms tomorrow are also looking
isolated at best, mainly in the Catskills and NEPA where there
is the most heating. Mid level lapse rates continue to be in the
5 to 5.5 C/km range with will prevent any updrafts that develop
from accelerating and may even aid in slowing down updrafts.
CAPE values are still good, getting into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
range for MLCAPE and shear is still around 30 knots so that is
still enough to get a few microburst to form. Still with the
lack of mid level lapse rates, it will be tough to get any good
hail cores to form to get more widespread damaging winds or
hail. SPC has cut back on the marginal risk to mainly encompass
NEPA into the Catskills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The trough axis that brought the unsettled weather Friday
moving to the east on Saturday with another ridge building in.
Dry air in place at the surface Saturday will help keep the
humidity down despite temperatures climbing back up into the mid
to upper 80s. A strong ridge of high pressure in the plains
with 500 mb heights approaching 600 dm puts us on the edge of
the ridge as we head into Sunday.

Sunday has unsettled weather return as a surface low moves into
the region around the edge of the strong southern US ridge. The
origins of this surface low looks to be from a large MCS that
develops in the plains Friday night into Saturday. The evolution
of these types of surface lows have a large amount of
unpredictability prior to the formation of the MCS but almost
all models have an MCS becoming an MCV this weekend as it moves
into the northeast. The path of all these MCVs is all over the
place in the CAMs and global models. If the low can pass into
the Great Lakes and into northern NY, that puts us in the warm
sector and increases our chances of severe thunderstorms but if
the low can pass through the region or just to the south, then
heavy rain and flash flooding will be the greater concern. Some
of the models even have the MCV missing completely to the south
but those are outliers right now.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
In the long term early next week, we remain on the edge of the
strong Southern US ridge keeping us unsettled on the edge of the
ring of fire. One thing to watch next week is Tuesdsay as
global models are hinting at an elevated mixed layer advecting
in. Even models that mix out the EML, there still is mid level
lapse rates greater than 6 C/km in the 700mb to 500 mb range so
that is still fairly good. Any MCS that forms in the northern
plains may be able to sustain itself as it moves into the
northeast early next week that could bring widespread winds. The
EPS and GEFS ensembles have a corridor of higher than average
precipitation anomalies that move through our region signaling
that we will likely remain on the edge of the strong ridge for a
while keeping storm chances high, even beyond this 7 day
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Conditions will VFR through the overnight hours. A frontal
system drops in from the north early Friday morning and will
bring ceilings down to Fuel Alt/MVFR. Along the front, there
will be showers and scattered thunderstorms. Prob30 groups were
added to most terminals except SYR and RME as thunderstorms
chances are much lower due to a less favorable environment.
This front is fairly quick to move through and all terminals
will be back to VFR by the end of the TAF period.

Southwesterly winds become calmer overnight. As the front moves
through, winds will be briefly westerly before settling out of
the northwest Friday afternoon. There will be some gusts around
15 kts tomorrow as well, though winds may be slightly stronger
along the front or if within any storms that move directly over
a terminal.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday Night through Sunday...Occasional restrictions
possible in showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, restrictions from scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ015>018-
     022>025-036-037-055-056.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...BTL