129 FXUS61 KBGM 051800 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... It will mainly dry Tonight into tomorrow, with temperatures on the rise, reaching the upper 80s and low 90s tomorrow into Monday. A more active weather pattern returns early next with a chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 200 PM Update Strong upper level ridging through the near term will lead to increasing humidity and temperatures through Sunday. Today, most of the area will remain dry but satellite shows some cumulus clouds in western NY and north central PA indicating some weaker capping. The high res models have been more consistent with developing convection this afternoon across the western Southern Tier and Southern Finger Lakes. Precipitable water (PWAT) values are increasing from west to east with NYSM profiler data showing over 1.3 inch values already over far SW NY and BUF`s 12Z sounding was at 1.4 inches. This is inline with what models have for this morning with the PWAT increasing to 1.5 to 1.7 inches west of I-81 by 5 pm. Wind vectors at the surface and 500 mb are not too favorable for backbuilding luckily but storm motions will be slow and warm cloud depths are over 10,000 feet. Rainfall rates of over 2 inches per hour are possible for brief periods of time so isolated flash flooding is possible for the western Southern Tier into the Southern Finger Lakes. Tonight into tomorrow, better low level moisture advects in with increasing dew points. Dew points rise back up to around 70 by tomorrow morning and with plenty of sun, temperatures rise back into the 90s. Forecast soundings show dry air just above the boundary layer so areas south of the Lake Ontario plain, will have some drier air mix in during peak heating helping to alleviate some of the mugginess. Fore areas along I-90 in the lake plain, warm lake temperatures and marshes will help boost afternoon dew points and keep them elevated despite the dry air trying to mix in. Heat advisories were issued for Onondaga through Seneca counties. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 200 PM Forecast... The short term remains hot and muggy with an increasing threat of heavy rain. Tropical Storm Chantal is looking to make landfall in the Carolinas early Sunday and the remnants slowly drift inland into Monday. Given that models tend to under do the latent heat release in these smaller tropical systems, an incoming trough will likely slow down as the upper level ridge is strengthened. Looking at PWAT fields in models and ensembles, the deep tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Chantal will be advecting into the northeast. Right now it is looking close with timing on arrival of deeper moisture and the front but there is concern that as the trough slows down, odds will be better that the widespread >2.0 inch PWAT arrives in time. Moisture transport vectors will also be aligned with the front moving in with the through which would favor training of storms and back building. Location of heavy rain is uncertain due to the rainfall being convectively driven but 2 to 4 inches of rain in less than 3 hours is likely somewhere in our region if the front continues to slow down. In addition to the heavy rain, wind shear is also elevated, with ensemble spread of 0-6 km shear between 25 and 35 knots and ensemble mixed layer CAPE up between 500 and 1000 J/kg so a few strong to severe thunderstorms cant be ruled out. The heavy rain potential could linger into Tuesday if the front stalls or slows to a crawl which some of the global models are starting to trend towards. This will have to be watched as areas that receive heavy rains on Monday could see additional heavy rains on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 200 PM Forecast... The long term remains unsettled with temperatures still on the warm side with elevated humidity continuing. Another shortwave trough swings through mid week and with still some lingering moisture from the remnants of Chantal, additional heavy rain is possible Wednesday and Thursday. Shear remains elevated with the shortwave passing through, remaining around 20 to 35 knots so there is at least a low risk of severe thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday. Into next weekend, the GEFS and EPS ensemble 500 mb heights are both hinting at greater odds of ridging. Despite the ridging, low level moisture remains in place so instability will build each day. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. ELM may have a shower or thunderstorm pop up near the terminal this afternoon into the evening but the better chances remain west so no showers or thunderstorms were included in the TAF but amendments will be made if necessary. If it does rain at ELM this afternoon, then fog would be likely tonight. Outlook... Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a low chance for showers or a thunderstorm. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ016>018. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG/MJM NEAR TERM...AJG SHORT TERM...AJG/JTC LONG TERM...AJG/JTC AVIATION...AJG