993
FXUS61 KBUF 170740
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
340 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring fair dry weather through tonight. A few
showers will be possible Friday as a warm front works through the
Lower Lakes. A better chance of showers and storms Friday night into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Skies quickly clearing as high pressure builds into the Lower
Lakes. We can look for mercury readings to drop to between 25F
and 35F by sunrise.

Sun-filled skies today which will help to push temps into the upper
40s to low/mid 50s.

Tonight...fair dry weather. Lows mainly in the 30s.

Increasing clouds Friday with a chance of a showers as a warm front
crosses the Lower Lakes. Otherwise...much warmer with highs in the
60s east of Lake Ontario, to low to mid 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday night through Saturday night a sharp mid level trough will
move east across Ontario and Quebec. The strongest forcing from
height falls and DPVA will remain north of the US/Canadian border,
with more modest height falls and an associated surface cold front
spreading across the eastern Great Lakes late Friday night through
Saturday evening. Sufficient moisture and forcing along the
advancing cold front will produce a few rounds of showers across the
region, and there may be just enough instability to support a few
widely scattered thunderstorms as well.

The surface cold front will push south and east of the area late
Saturday night, with showers tapering off from northwest to
southeast. Surface high pressure will build from the upper Great
Lakes Saturday night to the eastern Great Lakes Sunday, bringing a
mainly dry second half of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will drift slowly east across eastern NY and
New England Sunday night, maintaining mainly dry weather as clouds
increase ahead of the next system.

A mid level closed low ejecting out of the 4-corners region this
weekend will traverse the mid section of the nation, reaching the
western Great Lakes Monday and then southern Quebec Tuesday. This
system will capture a narrow plume of Gulf moisture, with forcing
ahead of the mid level trough and associated cold front supporting a
chance of showers again Monday through Monday night. Rain chances
will decrease Tuesday through Wednesday, although lingering weak
troughing across the Great Lakes and New England may still support a
low chance of a few spotty showers.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunny skies with VFR across all terminals today. VFR will continue
tonight.

Outlook...
Friday...VFR with a chance of a few showers.
Friday night...VFR to MVFR with increasing chances of rain showers.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers and a chance of a thunderstorm.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. A chance of a shower across the Southern Tier.
Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building over the Lower Lakes will allow for lighter
winds today through tonight. Southerly winds pick up Friday but area
advertized to remain just below SCAs levels.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LOZ043-
         044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR