501
FXUS61 KBUF 232257
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
657 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
There will be little relief from the heat tonight as a very warm and
muggy airmass lingers, with Tuesday again featuring another hot and
humid day. Most areas will remain dry, although an isolated
afternoon or evening thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in a few
locations. Temperatures will not be as hot for the second half of
the week, though it will remain very muggy with a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms possible each day Wednesday through the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A strong/hot ridge remains parked over the eastern US tonight, with
highly anomalous mid level heights and temperatures parked over the
eastern Great Lakes. Expect clear skies overnight, with sultry
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s in most locations.

This pattern will continue into Tuesday resulting in the third
consecutive day of well above normal across the region. Tuesday`s
temperatures will be slightly cooler than Monday as the upper level
ridge begins to retreat southward, but still expecting the heat
index to reach well into the 90s for most areas away from the
immediate lakeshores, with low 100s again in the normally warmer
areas from just south of Lake Ontario eastward into Central NY, and
in the valleys of the Finger Lakes region. A southwest flow off Lake
Erie will once again keep the immediate Buffalo Metro area cooler,
with similar cooling found at the east end of Lake Ontario.

By late Tuesday afternoon, a cold front extending south from a low
pressure system passing overtop of the ridge will bring a modest
increase in cloud cover and a slight chance of a few isolated
thunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings
suggest the strong cap will hold in most areas with still very warm
mid level temperatures. Most of the deep moist convection will stay
across southern Ontario, with the best chance of scattered storms
found in the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks late
afternoon and early evening. Stable lake shadows over and northeast
of Lake Erie will keep much of our area dry, with just a very low
chance of an isolated thunderstorm well inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Headed into Tuesday evening, a few showers and thunderstorms may
remain into the early evening hours, especially west of Rochester
and back towards Lake Erie. The frontal boundary will position
itself near the PA/NY border overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday
and extend westward towards the Midwest. This will provide some
relief across portions of western NY by keeping the more humid air
slight farther south, but showers and thunderstorms will still be
possible across the Southern Tier in the vicinity of the front
Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance suggests the front pushes
slight farther south into PA, but still MLCAPE will approach up to
1000 J/kg across Cattaraugus and Allegany Co with relatively weak
shear. Moist skinny CAPE profiles, PW values climbing above 1.5",
and  slow storm motions parallel to the boundary will support heavy
rainfall and the potential for localized flooding, especially in
complex terrain. Latest NAEFS guidance shows PW value
standardized anomaly over 2 sigma.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A low amplitude ridge will be in place across much of the eastern
two-thirds of the CONUS the end of the work week. Weak troughing
will be across the Canadian Maritimes and the Northern Plains.
Surface low pressure over Northern Plains will likely move northeast
into Ontario and Quebec provinces through the end of the week. An
associated stationary front will be near the southern half of the
forecast area Thursday and Friday, then the front will move north as
a warm front for the weekend. Anomalously high PWATS are forecast in
vicinity of the front. There are low chances for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday through Thursday night, and mainly across
western NY. An increasingly warm and humid airmass ahead of an
approaching cold front will increase chances for showers and
thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Any storms will be capable
of heavy rain.

Warm and humid weather will continue Thursday through Sunday,
however it won`t be as oppressive as the heat early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Mainly clear skies will
continue tonight through Tuesday morning. A 35+ knot low level jet
will propagate across the eastern Great Lakes tonight, bringing some
modest low level wind shear overnight.

A weak cold front will begin to approach from the north late Tuesday
afternoon, while the strong ridge aloft begins to settle a little
farther south. Most areas will stay dry and VFR, although a few
isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out later in the afternoon
and evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...A few showers and thunderstorms likely
at times. Mainly VFR, with local/brief restrictions in thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to settle into the southeast US through
midweek, while low pressure moves east across central/northern
Ontario and Quebec. The gradient between these two features will
maintain light to moderate west to southwest winds through Tuesday
with a moderate chop at times on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

A weak cold front will then move south across the area Tuesday
night, with winds becoming northeast Wednesday through the end of
the week, with a light to moderate chop possible at times. A few
rounds of thunderstorms are possible starting later tomorrow
afternoon and lasting through the end of the week, with locally
higher winds and waves near storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A dome of heat will settle upon the Lower Great Lakes this week
with temperatures both daytime and through the night pushing
towards record values. Below are the temperature records for our
three climate sites of Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown. Both
Buffalo and Rochester have been keeping temperature records
since 1871, and Watertown has been keeping temperature records
since 1949.

...Date......Maximum Temp(F)....Warm Minimum Temp (F).

Buffalo

...June 23rd......92/1964..........72/1957
...June 24th......92/1949..........72/2013

Rochester

...June 23rd......95/1888..........74/1888
...June 24th......96/1949..........70/2014

Watertown

...June 23rd......91/1975..........71/1957
...June 24th......91/1999..........71/2013

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ001>008-010>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/Thomas
NEAR TERM...Brothers/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Brothers
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/Thomas
CLIMATE...Thomas