037
FXUS61 KOKX 050341
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1141 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure based in the Atlantic remains but will gradually
weaken through Thursday night. A series of frontal systems affect
the region Friday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Smoke aloft expected to continue moving east, eventually east
of the area by tonight according to HRRR.

For tonight, high pressure remains offshore but weakens. Sky
conditions initially are mostly clear but an increase in clouds
is expected overnight. Guidance not indicating too much in the
way of low level clouds or fog overnight into early Thursday.
Cloud increase will be upper level clouds. With surface flow
remaining SW and the cloud increase, used consensus of short
term guidance for a relatively warmer solution. Lows tonight
into early Thursday stay mainly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains offshore based in the Atlantic but
continues to weaken. Areas of weak low pressure approach from
the south and west. Clouds will increase in coverage Thursday
and Thursday night.

SW flow continues with warm air advection also continuing. 850mb
temperatures are forecast to reach slightly higher values than
the previous day. SW flow will be relatively higher along the
coast with more gusts.

Forecast highs were from the NBM ranging from the 70s to near 80
across Eastern Long Island to upper 80s to near 90 for interior
and within NYC Metro. Dewpoints are on a rising trend as well,
with values in the 60s. Some daytime mixing is expected with the
SW flow to limit how high the dewpoints reach. Heat indices at
most stay mainly in the lower 90s. This stays well under heat
advisory thresholds.

With the approaching cold front and increasing instability,
there could be a few showers and thunderstorms to the north and
west of NYC in the mid afternoon into early evening. This is
indicated by several CAMs as well.

Any showers or thunderstorms are expected to diminish by mid to
late evening as the forcing will be weak and instability will
diminish with temperatures cooling. However, the airmass will
not change much as winds remain southerly along the coastal
areas and for the interior become northerly but stay quite
light. Forecast lows are also from NBM, ranging from lower 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An active long term period is expected as one upper trough passes
mainly to the north Friday night into Saturday. A weak ridge
quickly passes through during Sunday, with the flow mainly remaining
zonal across the region. Another, more amplified, trough affects the
region Monday into the midweek period. A brief dry period is
possible Sunday night into Monday. Otherwise unsettled weather is
expected. With the initial trough passing mainly to the north
Saturday, and increased humidity and precipitable water, there the
potential for periods of heavy rainfall across the interior, with
the best instability, and upslope flow. See the hydrology section
for details. Followed the deterministic NBM for the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore through tonight.

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

SW to S winds around 5 kt or less tonight shift more to the
southwest although some terminals away from NYC will have become
light and variable overnight. S to SSW winds increase Thursday
morning into the afternoon to around 10 kt to 15 kt, with the
strongest winds across KJFK, which may see gusts to around 20
from late afternoon through early evening with the typical low
level jet that sets up there this time of year.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday: VFR. SW winds 10 kt or less.

Friday: Possible MVFR/IFR with chance of showers/tstms.
Possible brief MVFR/IFR east of NYC terminals early Friday
morning in fog/stratus.

Saturday: Possible MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Chance of
tstms. Patchy fog early Saturday.

Sunday: Possible MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers.

Monday: VFR initially, then possible showers with MVFR
possible afternoon into night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecast, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
There may be a few gusts to near 25 kt on the ocean west of Fire
Island Inlet into early this evening but otherwise all waters
have below SCA criteria conditions in the forecast through
Thursday night. The pressure gradient overall will not be that
tight with wind gusts Thursday afternoon only to near 20 kt.
Ocean seas max height in the forecast through Thursday night is
4 ft.

Winds and seas remain below SCA levels across the forecast
waters Friday night. With a south to southeast flow Friday night
through Saturday, ahead of an approaching frontal system, ocean
seas likely build to 5 feet by late Saturday, and remain
elevated into late Saturday night. By late Saturday night and
into Sunday winds diminish and become east to northeast, and
ocean seas fall below 5 feet by early Sunday. Winds and seas
then remain below advisory levels through Monday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through Thursday night as much of the
timeframe is expected to be dry. Showers and thunderstorms
forecast for Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening
could deliver a quick downpour but will be temporally and
spatially limited. Coverage of convection just isolated to
widely scattered and just north and west of NYC.

No hydrologic concerns through Friday. Thereafter, with an
increasingly humid airmass in place, layer PW gradually increase
to 1 to 1.75 inches during Saturday, and then remains over 1
inch into the beginning of next week. Thunderstorms that do
develop have the potential of producing heavy rainfall,
especially Saturday. The best chances of thunderstorms is across
the Lower Hudson Valley, and into Northeastern New Jersey,
where upslope will enhance rainfall. This area is where there is
the potential for minor flooding in low lying, urban, and poor
drainage areas.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ067>073-075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JT
HYDROLOGY...JT