445
FXUS61 KALY 050505
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
105 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be another very warm and humid day today with
some scattered afternoon thunderstorms, some of which may contain
gusty winds.  More showers and thunderstorms are expected again on
Friday, although temperatures won`t be quite as warm.  Some
additional showers may linger into Saturday, before drier and less
humid conditions return for later in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 105 AM EDT...Upper level ridge axis is still located
right along the eastern seaboard, although the flow aloft will
be flattening the ridge out through the day today and into
tonight. At the surface, high pressure is located the mid
Atlantic States and it will slowly drift eastward by tonight as
well. IR satellite imagery continues to show fairly clear skies
over the area, with just some thin high cirrus around. It will
stay fairly clear for the rest of the overnight and into the
start of the day on Thursday. With a muggy air mass in place
(dewpoints in the low 60s), some patchy fog may develop in
sheltered areas where the wind has gone calm, although larger
valley areas will see a light southerly breeze, which should
help prevent any widespread fog from forming. The short duration
of the overnight will help limit the extent of the fog as well.
Lows will mainly be in the 60s.

Thursday will start out warm and humid before a weak cold front
and upper-level shortwave approach from the west. Temperatures
will once again reach the 80s for most areas with some valley
areas approaching 90. Heat index (or feels like temperatures)
will be near the actual air temperature with dewpoints in the
60s. Instability will build into the afternoon with CAPE values
reaching 1000-1500 J/kg. 0-6km shear will be greatest for areas
north and west of Albany (around 30-35 kt) with lower values
south and east. The instability, shear and approaching shortwave
and cold front/prefrontal trough will support at least isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening hours. Dry mid-levels and possible inverted-v signatures
could support some strong winds gusts with the strongest storms
along with some small hail. We remain outlooked in a Marginal
Risk for severe thunderstorms by the Storm Prediction Center.

The front looks to stall over our region Thursday night as its
forward progression slows as an area of low pressure drifts up
the Southeast coast toward coastal North Carolina. Additional
shortwave energy tracking across the region and in proximity to
the front could support some additional rain showers overnight.
Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
We will be located within a developing longwave trough Friday
into Saturday. Multiple shortwaves will round the base of the
trough while additional low pressure systems track across the
nearly stalled frontal bounday over our region. Plenty of
moisture and forcing will result in additional rounds of showers
and thunderstorms both days. Some of these storms could bring
some locally heavy rainfall. We are outlooked in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall (potential flash flooding) for both
Friday and Saturday by the Weather Prediction Center. There
could be enough instability and shear for some stronger storms
on Friday, especially for southern areas. Will continue to
monitor trends. Even less instability is expected on Saturday so
no severe thunderstorms are expected on this day.

It will not be as warm on Friday compared to Thursday with highs
in the 70s to lower 80s. Saturday will be even cooler with highs
in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak upper level ridging looks to build near or north of our
area on Sunday, but there are some indications an upper level
shortwave will undercut the ridge across the mid-Atlantic. This
system could pass close enough to bring some additional showers
on Sunday. PoPs have increased to 25 to 40 percent for Sunday.
Thereafter, a larger and more potent upper level low will
approach from the Great Lakes early next week. This will send
another low pressure system and cold front toward our region.
This will support additional rain showers and possibly some
thunderstorms later Monday and on Tuesday. We may turn post
frontal by Wednesday but additional showers are possible being
located underneath the upper level low/cold pool aloft.
Temperatures during this period look to run slightly above
normal values with highs generally in the 70s to lower 80s and
lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06z Friday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as
of 12:50 AM EDT. VFR conditions will continue at ALB/POU through at
least early tomorrow afternoon. At GFL/PSF, there could be a brief
period of mist/fog for a couple hours around sunrise this morning,
so have included tempo groups at both sites. Highest confidence is
at GFL, where IFR vsbys were mentioned. Lower confidence at PSF, so
will keep vsbys to MVFR at this time and amend if needed. Any
fog/mist quickly dissipates early this morning, with VFR conditions
then continuing through early afternoon. Mainly VFR conditions
prevail through the afternoon and evening tomorrow, although there
will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms around
during the afternoon and evening. Chances for a shower/storm to move
over one of the terminals look too low for inclusion of prob30
groups at this time, although we did introduce VCSH groups at all
terminals with this TAF package. Brief MVFR to IFR vsbys possible
within any showers/storms. Showers/storms dissipate shortly after
sunset with prevailing VFR conditions at all terminals through at
least 06z.

Winds will be generally light and variable through mid-morning, then
increase to around 5-8 kt from the S/SE, becoming more W/SW tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Winds generally diminish to less than 5 kt
after sunset tomorrow evening. While not quite expected to reach
LLWS criteria, winds at 2000 ft will be from the west at 25-30 kt
through around 10-11z this morning at ALB/POU/PSF.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ063>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Main