766 FXUS61 KOKX 091808 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 208 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A humid airmass will remain in place through Thursday, allowing for the potential development of showers and thunderstorms. There is then a chance of daily showers and thunderstorms expected through Monday. A weak frontal system may pass to the north Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The area will continue to destabilize this aftn. SBCAPE generally 1000-2500 J/kg per the 17Z HRRR analysis, with CIN eroding. With sea breeze boundaries, a weak trof, and falling heights, isold-sct tstm initiation possible into the early eve. Storm motion is modeled to be around 5kt, so there is a localized flood threat with any storms that develop, especially if redevelopment occurs along storm outflows in a primarily multicellular environment. The NAM models DCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, so with the EL at 43k ft in the OKX 12Z sounding, any storms aoa that lvl could produce some svr lvl downbursts. Widespread shwrs and tstms expected tngt as an h5 trof comes thru and provides some solid upr lvl support. Perhaps some bowing segments for an isold svr risk. Bands of hvy rainfall could produce some areas of mainly minor flooding as well. Model focus of the hvy rain is generally ern areas of LI where FFG is highest, somewhat limiting the overall threat. However, if the bands were to set up further W over the urban corridor, there would be a flash flood risk. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Additional chances for shwrs and tstms on Thu as the upr trof and embedded shrtwv energy lingers in the area. Stuck with the NBM timing here, but if activity is robust early in the day as the NAM suggests, there could be limited action in the aftn where the airmass is worked over. However, if a mrng round doesn`t develop, more extensive activity seems more likely in the aftn hours. A bit cloudy with onshore flow, so high temps 70s and 80s with max apparent temps mainly in the 80s. As the upr trof axis passes E of the CWA Thu ngt, decreasing chances for rain. With lgt llvl flow, moisture will remain in place resulting in a humid ngt. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages - Showers and thunderstorms are a daily concern through Monday, thanks to a lingering boundary and plenty of moisture from the onshore flow. Western forecast areas are at the greatest risk, as daytime heating will boost instability. - The greatest uncertainty in the forecast period, particularly for temperatures and PoPs, remains Sunday through Monday. This is attributed to the varied handling of a weak frontal system by the ensembles. - Next week, temperatures are expected to warm up, reaching the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s. ML guidance is hinting at a low (10-30%) threat for severe weather that will need to be monitored, along with a frontal system late in the week. No major changes made to the NBM. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A stationary frontal boundary remains within the region through the TAF period. Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms later this evening into Thursday morning. There continues to be uncertainty with the exact timing of showers and thunderstorms. There is a chance of MVFR ceilings late tonight into early Thursday morning along the coast, with areal coverage and timing uncertain. Winds will generally be southerly this afternoon with sea breezes. Winds become light SW this evening to light and variable outside of the NYC metro terminals. A light southerly flow develops Thursday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely to refine the timing of showers and thunderstorms which could vary by a few hours compared to TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday afternoon: Chance of showers and thunderstorms into the early evening with MVFR possible. Otherwise VFR. Friday - Sunday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening near and northwest of the NYC terminals with MVFR possible. Monday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Outside of tstms, winds and seas are expected to remain blw sca lvls thru Thu. A weak pressure gradient into the upcoming weekend will keep winds and seas below SCA levels. && .HYDROLOGY... There is a risk for mainly minor urban and poor drainage flooding thru Thu with rounds of shwrs and tstms expected. Although not currently modeled, if the heaviest bands of rain set up over the more flood prone areas of NJ and the urban corridor, there will be a more substantial flash flood risk there. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A moderate rip current risk is forecast at all ocean beaches into this evening due to to incoming 3-4 ft/7-8s swell. The moderate risk continues for all but the NYC beaches for on Thursday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/EA NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...EA AVIATION...MET MARINE...JMC/EA HYDROLOGY...JMC/EA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...