576
FXUS61 KOKX 071737
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
137 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure passes by to the east this morning, then a cold
front moves through the area this afternoon into evening. Weak high
pressure then briefly follows for Sunday, followed by an area of low
pressure passing to the south and east Sunday night into Monday. A slow
moving frontal system will then work across the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night. High pressure returns Wednesday and remains near the
region through Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A slowly moving cold front approaches from the west today. It
enters the western portion of the forecast area this afternoon
and exits to the east this evening. Showers likely across much
of the area, and some embedded thunderstorms will be possible as
well. CAPE and shear expected to be modest, so severe storms
are not anticipated.
PWATS remain climatologically a little higher than normal, but cell
training and back-building will be mitigated by the lack of
alignment between moisture field and steering winds aloft. Given the
amount of rain that occurred yesterday combined with the rain
potential for today, still cannot rule out isolated flash flooding
in the vicinity of Orange and Putnam Counties, but any hydrologic
impacts across the entire forecast area would likely be limited to
minor urban and poor drainage flooding. WPC continues to show a
marginal risk of flash flooding over the far NW portion of the area.
A low rain threat will be ongoing after sunset mainly east of the
city, then dry overnight. Ample low level moisture will also bring
the possibility of low stratus or fog development late tonight
mainly for the coast, but fog still possible elsewhere away from the
city with light to calm winds.
NBM looked good for temperatures through the near term for the most
part. Adjusted high temps upward slightly in the city and the urban
corridor of NE NJ based on early morning temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure will be in place at the start of the day, but
then weakens with the approach of a broad area of low pressure
approaching from the south and west. It should be dry through early
afternoon, then rain chances begin over the western half of the area
late afternoon. Models depict a couple of circulations passing
nearby from Sunday night into Monday - one to our NW, and a somewhat
stronger low center passing offshore to our SE. The moisture will be
sufficient, and there should at at least some shortwave lift too, so
rain chances are 30-40% for Sunday night. Rainfall for the most part
would be light, and with dry mid-levels it could even be just a
chance of drizzle late at night.
Looks like there will be some ridging aloft during Monday with the
longwave pattern amplifying during the day. This in turn will help
put a lid on shower activity as well as slow the eastward
progression of a cold front over the eastern Great Lakes Region.
Only a slight chance of a shower over the western half of the area
during the day. Chances then increase Monday night as the cold front
draws closer, but remain no higher than 50%.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period starts off with a slow moving frontal system
approaching and moving across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night.
The best chances for rain at this time looks to be during the day
time, with lower chances Tuesday night. Will continue to mention a
chance of thunder, however, instability looks to be marginal at this
time. The cold front pushes across the region Tuesday night.
High pressure then builds into the region on Wednesday in the wake
of the front and remains over the area through Friday. Expect dry
and warm conditions for the second half of the week. Another low
pressure system may impact the area on Saturday.
With cloud cover and rain, temperatures on Tuesday will only be in
the lower and middle 70s. However, temperatures warm for the second
half of the week as high pressure and drier conditions return.
Temperatures on Wednesday through Friday will be in the 80s area
wide. Temperatures may be slightly cooler right along the immediate
coastline.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold frontal passage occurs late this aftn. The front stalls
offshore on Sun.
MVFR or lower with rain ahead of the fropa. Isold tstms
possible, especially right ahead of the front. Tempo for heavier
shwrs, and any tstms would likely occur within this tempo
period.
Becoming mainly VFR tngt, but ern areas may drop back to IFR
with fog and low CIGs returning. Lowering clouds off the ocean
on Sun, but most areas still expected to stay VFR.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amds possible for timing of the wind shift with the front. A few
shwrs may linger behind the fropa. Isold tstms possible,
especially with the line developing across PA.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Rest of Sunday: Mainly VFR in the aftn. Chance for rain Sun ngt
with MVFR or lower.
Monday: Becoming VFR with light E flow.
Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with shwrs and tstms. Varying
winds with a frontal sys.
Wednesday - Thursday: VFR with W flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Patchy dense fog anticipated over some of the eastern waters
until mid-morning. Not anticipating any advisories however.
After collaboration with the surrounding offices, have decided
to go with a SCA on the ocean waters today into this evening.
Waves likely in the 4-5 ft range during most of this time. Winds
otherwise remain below advisory thresholds through Monday.
Expect sub-advisory conditions to continue through Tuesday.
Waves of low pressure passing to the south and a southerly swell
will keep seas on the ocean 3 to 4 ft. Chances increase for
marginal SCA conditions for seas around 5 ft Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Seas should then fall below SCA conditions late
Wednesday into Wednesday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Rain amounts today into early evening probably average around a half
of an inch, but higher locally higher amounts remain possible. See
the near term section above for potential impacts.
No widespread hydrologic impacts otherwise for tonight through
Monday.
Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night may produce at
least minor nuisance flooding. Low confidence at this time regarding
potential impacts this far ahead in time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A building SSE swell will increase to 5 ft 8-9S today.
This is expected to produce 3 to 5 ft breakers in the surf
zone and increase the rip current risk to high. Thus, a High Rip
Current Risk remains in effect today into this evening for all
locations along the oceanfront.
Swells diminish some on Sunday. A moderate rip current risk is
forecast for most locations, however a high risk should remain
along the oceanfront of eastern Suffolk County.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...