474
FXUS61 KOKX 220955
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
555 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build into and south of the region into
early this week. A cold front moves near the area Wednesday and
weakens with multiple weak waves of low pressure moving along
it for the latter half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Increased PoPs this morning for much of the northern half of the
area as a decaying MCS approaches. It should continue to weaken
slowly into the morning but rainfall with thunder and lightning
is becoming increasingly possible.
* Extreme Heat Warning for much of the region from this afternoon
through 8 PM Tuesday including NYC.
* Heat Advisory is in effect today and an Extreme Heat Watch on
Monday and Tuesday remains, for portions of Long Island and
coastal Middlesex and New London Counties.
A large upper level ridge continues to build into the area from the
southwest with surface high pressure building in as well. A
shortwave pushing through southeastern Canada has forced the
development of an MCS that is making its way southeastward through
Upstate New York. Despite its progression toward the area this
morning, there remains substantial uncertainty in its ability to
maintain itself as it approaches this morning. The MCS is moving
into a less favorable environment and while CAMs disagree as to the
exact track and continuance of the MCS, the chance exists for
showers and thunderstorms to move into the area this morning.
SPC has much of the area in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms and now the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and
western CT in a slight risk for the potential of this MCS to
produce primarily damaging winds. It is important to note that
this is entirely conditional on the ability of this complex to
sustain itself.
At a minimum, it appears likely that the morning may be more cloud-
covered than previously expected. This additional cloud cover may
limit the extent of heating during the day, though clearing of the
skies is expected into the late morning and early afternoon as high
pressure continues to build in.
Today will be the beginning of what may very well be a record
setting heatwave for some locations. Forecast highs are in the upper
80s along the coast to low to middle 90s for much of the area. Heat
index values will be generally 100-105 for much of the area. For
areas closer to the coast, heat index values of 95-100 will be
expected. Lows tonight will be in the low to middle 70s for most,
upper 70s for the NYC metro.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
* Extreme Heat continues Monday and Tuesday when the peak of the
heatwave is expected.
The heat continues on Monday with high temperatures expected to once
again be in the 90s though the upper 90s are expected for most
immediately away from the coast. Temperatures in the low 100s
are possible for NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Heat Index
values Monday will peak in the 105-110 range inland and 95-105
along the coast.
Lows Monday night will not offer much relief as low temperatures
will only be in the 70s with more urban locations possibly not
dropping below 80.
Slightly higher temperatures are expected Tuesday as compared to
Monday, though dew points may be slightly lower so heat index values
will be comparable. High temperatures for much of the area Tuesday
may approach 100 or rise into the low 100s away from the coast.
Given a westerly flow, coastal areas like Long Island may rise into
the middle to upper 90s as well. This will likely be the hottest day
for the coastal areas. Lows Tuesday night will once again be in the
middle to upper 70s.
Given the expected excessive heat, an Extreme Heat Warning is in
effect through Tuesday. The highest heat index values will occur
each afternoon, but especially on Monday and Tuesday. An Extreme
Heat Watch remains in effect for portions of Long Island and coastal
New London County in CT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
* Wednesday should be the the last day of heat/humidity for this
week.
* A more unsettled weather pattern likely to develop for later this
week as a frontal boundary remains nearby.
Upper ridging over the Northeast will weaken somewhat during mid to
late week. This will likely make Wed the last day of the heat wave,
and put the area closer to the southern belt of the westerlies, with
a cold front sagging toward the region along with chances for
showers/tstms. With H8 temps as high as 19C in the NYC metro area
late day Wed, temps are likely to get close to the upper 90s in the
urban corridor of NE NJ, with lower/mid 90s most elsewhere, and
mid/upper 80s for the immediate CT coastline and also the south
shore and east end of Long Island. With afternoon dewpoints in the
mid/upper 60s this yields heat index values 95-100 for most of the
area, not nearly as oppressive as Mon/Tue but still at advisory
levels.
Otherwise, less ridging and the approach of a cold front Wednesday
which could very well stall out thereafter will present a more
unsettled weather pattern, with chances for showers/tstms. Multiple
model guidance sets continue to indicate a cooldown, with high temps
in the 80s on Thu, upper 70s/lower 80s Fri, and mid/upper 70s for
Sat which is slightly below normal. &&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain mostly in control. Light winds overnight
increase to WSW around 10 kt after daybreak, then to 10-15G20-25kt
by afternoon, highest at the NYC metros. Winds then diminish
tonight.
A thunderstorm complex moving SE across upstate NY is progressing
toward the Hudson Valley and western CT, and should arrive after
daybreak. PROB30 to KSWF/KHPN/KBDR to account for this may have to
be start earlier (10Z-11Z). Restrengthening is possible thereafter
as the activity moves southward, and the NYC metros/KISP may also
eventually need to include thunder impacts for later this morning
into the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Thunder impacts may need to be added for late morning into the
afternoon. Low confidence.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late tonight through Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Chance of showers/tstms in the afternoon/evening
mainly for KHPN/KSWF.
Thursday: Chance of showers/tstms mainly in the
afternoon/evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain mostly in control. Light winds overnight
increase to WSW around 10 kt after daybreak, then to 10-15G20-25kt
by afternoon, highest at the NYC metros. Winds then diminish
tonight.
A thunderstorm complex moving SE across upstate NY is progressing
toward the Hudson Valley and western CT, and should arrive after
daybreak. PROB30 to KSWF/KHPN/KBDR to account for this may have to
be start earlier (10Z-11Z). Restrengthening is possible thereafter
as the activity moves southward, and the NYC metros/KISP may also
eventually need to include thunder impacts for later this morning
into the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Thunder impacts may need to be added for late morning into the
afternoon. Low confidence.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late tonight through Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Chance of showers/tstms in the afternoon/evening
mainly for KHPN/KSWF.
Thursday: Chance of showers/tstms mainly in the
afternoon/evening.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the central and eastern
ocean zones through this evening for 25kt gusts and wave heights
near 5 feet. Sub-SCA conditions are expected thereafter through the
middle of the week as high pressure settles over and south of the
area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no expected widespread hydrologic concerns with any
possible convection this morning, though isolated poor drainage
issues are possible in any heavy thunderstorm this morning.
There are no hydrologic concerns through the rest of the
forecast period with dry conditions prevailing.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With an increase in onshore swell (3 to 4 ft) and southerly winds
(SW 10-15 kts), a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for all
ocean beaches today.
Winds lighten and become more variable tonight into early Monday
with a resumption of light southerly flow Monday afternoon (5-10
kts). Onshore swell decreases for Monday (2 to 3 ft). There is a low
risk of rip currents forecast for Monday for all ocean beaches.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Increasing heat may result in record high temperatures through
Tuesday.
Today`s Record Highs (June 22):
EWR 101 / 1988
BDR 93 / 1949
NYC 98 / 1988
LGA 99 / 1988
JFK 94 / 2012
ISP 94 / 2012
Monday`s Record Highs (June 23):
EWR 99 / 2024
BDR 91 / 2010
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 95 / 2024 and previous years
JFK 94 / 2010
ISP 91 / 1999
Tuesday`s Record Highs (June 24):
EWR 97 / 1966
BDR 94 / 1966
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 96 / 2013
JFK 97 / 2010
ISP 96 / 1966
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
CTZ005>010.
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
CTZ011-012.
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for CTZ011-012.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
NYZ067>075-176-178.
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ078-080-177-179.
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NYZ078-080-177-179.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for NYZ078>081-177-179.
NJ...Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Monday for NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...