135
FXUS61 KBUF 170223
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
923 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
We can expect milder temperatures the next couple of days as
progressively warmer air overspreads our region on the backside of
departing high pressure...with most areas seeing readings climbing
into the mid to upper 30s Wednesday, and then well into the 40s
Thursday. A weak cold front passing through the region Wednesday
will yield a few light rain or snow showers, especially east of Lake
Ontario. It will also become windy within this warming airmass, with
gusty winds late tonight and Wednesday morning...followed by a
period of stronger gusts Thursday night through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight our region will be situated within the warm advection regime
in between high pressure sliding east and off the Atlantic
coastline...and low pressure making its way from northern Ontario to
Quebec. This will result dry weather along with steadily rising
temperatures as we push through the night...along with increasing
winds as the pressure gradient tightens across our region.

A strong LLJ of 50 knots will be found along a weak cold front that
will drop across our region late tonight and Wednesday morning. Warm
air advection ahead of the front will limit mixing heights, along
with producing poor lapse rates. There is a small window right
behind the front Wednesday morning of southwest winds gusting
potentially to around 40 knots for the Niagara Frontier, but this
potential is still too low in confidence and duration for a wind
advisory at this time. Supporting sub 40 knot gusts is also the 12Z
CIPS analogs which display under 20 percent of observations with 40
knots within similar synoptic setups. Will continue with continuity
of southwest gusts along the lake Erie shoreline and northern
Niagara Frontier to 45 mph, with gusts slightly weaker to the
east...generally in the 25 to 35 mph range.

Otherwise Wednesday, a weak cold front passing across our region will
yield a few light rain and snow showers. Greatest chances will be
east of Lake Ontario, closer to lift ahead of a shortwave and within
deeper moisture. While up to an inch could accumulate across the
higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks...little if
any accumulation will occur elsewhere.

Behind the weak cold front will have another period of fair weather
for Wednesday night with a ridge of high pressure advancing across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level low centered over the northern Plains Thursday morning
will support deep and broad troughing across the central portions of
the CONUS. This low will eventually open up into a trough by
Thursday night as it passes eastward into the upper Great Lakes,
before finishing its eastward progression and becoming negatively
tilted across the Northeast by Friday night and further lift
northeast across New England Friday night. Meanwhile at the surface,
a strong surface low over the northern Plains Thursday morning will
slide east-southeast across southern Ontario, Canada and into
central Quebec Friday. There continues to remain uncertainty with
the exact timing and intensity with this surface low, but there
continues to be medium to high confidence that this low will pass by
to the northwest of New York State. Additionally, a low level jet of
60-55 knots will push across the region late Thursday into Thursday
night. Given the wind direction will be orientated out of the south,
strong downslope winds will be favorable with peak surface wind
gusts of up to 60mph possible on the north and northwest sides of
the higher terrain (Mainly impacting north of the Chautauqua Ridge
and north of the Tug Hill Plateau/eastern Adirondacks area). This
being said, a swift southerly breeze will be likely Thursday night
due to a tight surface pressure gradient.

Outside of the winds, timing of the cold frontal passage associated
with the aforementioned surface low continues to trend later and
later, with its passage now occurring Thursday night. Ahead of the
passage, strong warm air advection will support temperatures to soar
above average for the first time in a while. Highs Thursday will
climb up into the 40s with the cooler temperature readings found
across the higher terrain. Ahead of the cold frontal passage, expect
widespread rain to spill across the region late Thursday into
Thursday night. With this rain, limited instability a rumble or two
of thunder can`t be ruled out completely.

Cold air will quickly advect across the region in the wake of the
cold frontal passage Friday morning, changing rain to snow from west
to east. A secondary cold frontal passage late Friday morning will
support colder air to filter in across the region through Friday
night, resulting in breezy westerly winds, falling temperatures and
snow showers. Wind gusts up to 50mph are possible across western New
York Friday afternoon. Additionally, with the colder air arriving,
accumulating lake effect snow will be possible, with the best
chances lying east of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quasi-zonal flow across the region Saturday will give way to
troughing setting up over the Great Lakes region through Monday.
Quasi-zonal flow will then set up through the start of the week.
This all being said, a clipper system will pass north of the area
Saturday through Sunday, resulting in an unsettled period with
possible rain and snow showers. Colder air may fill in behind this
system, supporting some lake enhanced snow showers Sunday night
through Monday. Surface high pressure will then act to dry out
activity from west to east Monday and Monday night, before the next
system slides to the north of the area Tuesday, supporting renewed
chances for some widespread rain/snow.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The north-south oriented swath of MVFR-level clouds mentioned
earlier this evening has managed to hold together and spread
across all of far western New York...and is now affecting the
KBUF/KIAG/KJHW terminals. This will likely spread further
eastward and affect the KROC terminal between 04z-07z...with
some improvement expected after 06z-07z at KBUF/KIAG/KROC. At
KJHW and across the Southern Tier...MVFR ceilings will likely
linger through much of the night. Elsewhere...predominantly VFR
conditions should continue to prevail east of Lake
Ontario...including at KART.

A strong 50 knot LLJ will develop late this evening and last
into Wednesday morning...which will produce LLWS for times when
the surface winds are not gusting. Strongest surface gusts are
expected between 06Z and 15Z for KIAG and KBUF.

Otherwise a modest cold front will cross our region during
Wednesday. The combination of increasing low level moisture and
upsloping/lift surrounding the frontal passage will generate a few
light rain and snow showers east of the lakes on Wednesday...with
flight conditions also lowering to MVFR across the lower elevations
and IFR across the higher terrain (including KJHW).

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Improvement to VFR.

Thursday...VFR with a chance of showers late. Increasing winds.

Thursday night...Deterioration to MVFR/IFR with rain developing from
west to east. Strong wind gusts, especially in downslope areas.

Friday...Rain changing to snow showers from west to east early.
MVFR/IFR improving to VFR/MVFR in most areas, with lake effect snow
showers bringing local IFR east of the lakes. Very windy.

Saturday and Sunday...MVFR/VFR in scattered light snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front
will bring another round of strong winds to the lower Great Lakes
late tonight through Wednesday. Sustained winds will peak in the 30-
35 knot range. A low end Gale Warning remains in effect for Lake
Ontario from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon, with a high
end Small Craft Advisory in place for Lake Erie.

Strong low pressure will then move across Ontario and Quebec
Thursday through Friday, with a trailing powerful cold front
crossing the lower Great Lakes late Thursday night. Southerly winds
will increase to near gale force Thursday ahead of the cold front,
then swing around to westerly Friday behind the front with gales
likely on both lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042-
         062.
         Gale Warning from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
         LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/Thomas
NEAR TERM...JJR/Thomas
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JJR/Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock/JJR/Thomas