666 FXUS61 KBUF 050859 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 459 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening cold front will slowly cross the region today, with some showers and thunderstorms. Additional showers or a thunderstorm will be possible through Friday night, this as the cold front stalls not to far from the area. High pressure will eventually begin to build in Saturday, which will bring dry weather to the region through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front extends from IN/OH northeast across Lake Erie and Ontario. This front will ever so slowly sag into the region today, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Timing wise...it won`t be until late this morning and into this afternoon (peak heating) when SBCAPE values climb to +1000 J/KG that convection will re-ignite. The focus will `likely` be with potential lake breezes or even an embedded convective shortwave rippling along this front. That said...the greatest threat for storms will be found across the S. Tier, Finger Lakes, and a small portion of the eastern Lake Ontario region. Overall...the SVR storm potential still looks limited but not zero. We still could see a potent storm or two produce strong gusty winds, and also heavy rainfall. Given PW values pushing +1.5 inches any slow or repeated convection moving across vulnerable areas could produce localize flash flooding. Tonight...the front will lose its forward progression and then stall not to far from the area. This will keep chances for some showers across the area. Additionally...we may also see some pockets of fog develop, especially for those areas that see rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday morning, the passing cold front will generally be located in the vicinity of NW PA and extend to the Finger Lakes and to just east of Lake Ontario. This is the area where the best potential for showers and thunderstorms is expected as the front slowly pushes east before stalling. The potential for showers and thunderstorms will focus on these areas as a wave of low pressure and increase in synoptic moisture ride northeast along the stationary front, during the late morning and afternoon. While some thunderstorms are expected, strong to severe potential will be limited with the greater instability on the warmer side of the front and the marginal shear values on the cooler side of the front. Moderate to at times heavy showers will be possible as PWat values increase to 1.50 inches or more, especially on the warmer side of the front. Rainfall amounts will range from a few hundredths of an inch from over/near the Lakes Erie & Ontario to over half an inch for areas of the Western Southern Tier to Northern Finger Lakes to areas east of Lake Ontario. The front will start to slowly track east again, but showers will linger through the night on Friday, tapering off from west to east Saturday morning. High pressure and a drier airmass will push into the region by late Saturday morning and into the afternoon. The area of high pressure will continue to build east, tracking just north of the forecast area Saturday night, resulting in dry weather into the start of Sunday morning. Temperatures wont change much with the passing front, with Friday the cooler of the two days. Rain cooled afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 60s for the Western Southern Tier and portions of the Finger Lake, with the rest of the area in the low to mid 70s for the day. Saturday afternoon highs will reach slightly warmer values into the low to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers make a return starting Sunday afternoon into the overnight and continues on and off for much of the period. This will occur as a large trough develops over the Great Lakes early in the week and lingers into the middle of the week. Still plenty of uncertainty among guidance this far out for timing, etc., but nearly all guidance agrees on the overall pattern and potential for showers for most of the week. Temperatures for the period will remain mostly within a few degrees of normal, either warmer or cooler, depending on the day and frontal boundaries passing across the region. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR will hold for many of the TAF sites. One thing of note...guidance suggest we might see some low MVFR-IFR stratus briefly sneak in at KIAG/KBUF/KROC and KART after 10Z this morning. Have added this too the TAF sites mentioned above. Otherwise...attention turns to the convection to our west. Lastest CAMs show this might get in to far WNY after 12Z. Although...most of it will be in a weekend state when it arrives. A better chance of storms will potentially come as early as 15Z but `likely` hold off until closer to peak heating. Still looking like storms will fire along potential lake breeze boundaries or a convective shortwave tracking along the front. Best chance to see these storms will be across the Southern Tier, Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. That said...with any of the stronger storms expect brief localized restrictions. Tonight...the cold front is advertised to stall not too far from the area. Given its close proximity and moisture we may see some scattered showers, and also low stratus/fog formation overnight. Outlook... Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Saturday...MVFR with a chance of showers early for eastern TAF sites. Sunday...VFR. Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible. && .MARINE... A cold front will cross the lakes today but winds are expected to remain light with minimal wave action. The front will stall southeast of the lakes by tonight with light northerlies less than 10 knots. Winds and waves will continue to remain well below SCA levels Friday through the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...SW AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR