529
FXUS61 KOKX 081130
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
730 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure today gives way to an area of low pressure
passing to the south and east tonight into Monday. A slow moving
frontal system will then work across the area Tuesday into Tuesday
night. High pressure returns Wednesday and remains near the region through
early Friday. Another frontal system may affect the region late
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Will need to keep an eye for the potential for the need of a
dense fog advisory across parts of the NW zones early this
morning with light to calm winds combine with residual low
level moisture from yesterday`s rainfall. SPS has been issued in
the meantime to address the likelihood of at least patchy dense
fog. Visibilities should improve within a couple of hours of
sunrise.

High pressure center shifts through northern New England today, and
should be strong enough to keep us dry through this morning with
only shallow moisture in place. Low to mid level moisture then
increases this afternoon with weak shortwave lift arriving from the
south and west late in the day. Chance of light rain by the end of
the day, mainly for the western half of the forecast area.

A weak wave of low pressure then approaches from the south tonight,
remaining offshore. Added moisture and lift increase the chances of
rain for eastern portions of the area, meanwhile moisture
convergence and lift with an approaching warm front increase rain
chances for western portions. PoPs capped at 50% tonight.

NBM looked good for temperatures through the near term.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Disagreement among the models regarding the advancement of the
approaching low pressure wave during the day on Monday, which could
very well just weaken to the point of being part of a surface trough
or warm front that stalls nearby. Therefore kept in at least a
slight chance of rain. Most of the day will at least be dry.

Great Lakes closed low drifts across southern Ontario on Tuesday and
then shears NE through southern Quebec Tuesday night. Good model
agreement in an associated trough axis approaching Tuesday/Tue eve
and pivoting through late Tue night/Wed.

At the surface, a cold front approaches from the west while either a
trough or new weak wave of low pressure approaches from the SW.
Large scale synoptic lift from the approaching trough and modest
lift from the right rear quadrant of an upper jet streak combines
with +1.5 - 2 std PWAT for increasing shower activity from the west
Tuesday morning. Basin average model QPF is relatively light
overall, but there`s potential for locally heavy downpours and
elevated thunder, particularly N&W of NYC with the best co-location
of mid/upper forcing, weak elevated instability and orographic
enhancement of an E/SE low-level flow. Additionally, the storm
motion would appear to align with a slow moving cold front, which
would promote cell training. WPC has a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall dropping into portions of the Lower Hudson Valley during
this time. Best upper level forcing and instability seem to lag the
surface features, minimizing a localized flash flood threat farther
SE towards the coast. Due to weak instability, strong to severe
thunderstorm threat appears limited despite strong shear profiles.
Shower/thunderstorm activity should taper from W to E later Tue
aft/early eve as the surface wave, trough axis/cold front slide
through.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period starts with high pressure building into the
region on Wednesday in the wake of the front. The high will remain
over the area through much of Friday. Expect dry and warm
conditions. Temperatures on Wednesday will climb into the lower and
middle 80s. Temperatures will warm a few degrees for Thursday and
Friday with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Can not rule out some
90 degree temperatures in NYC/NJ metro area. Temperatures may be
cooler right along the immediate coast.

Another frontal boundary and low pressure system will move into the
area late Friday into Friday night and remain near the region
through the weekend. Expect unsettled conditions through this
period, however not confident both days will be a rainout.
Temperatures will be cooler for the weekend with highs in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A frontal boundary will remain stalled south of the area
terminals today.

Generally looking at VFR conditions prevailing this morning
however, there are some areas of sub-VFR in fog and stratus. It
will be another low confidence forecast day with low clouds
residing nearby along and just off the coast and over the ocean,
but most areas still expected to stay VFR for the first half of
the day. Sub VFR conditions (mainly MVFR) is then expected to
return at some point during the afternoon, with low confidence
in the timing of the arrival of sub VFR conditions. Confidence
growing for IFR or lower conditions with rain and drizzle
tonight into Monday morning.

Easterly winds are expected today, mainly 08-12kt. Winds remain
easterly, but diminish to 10kt or less tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible throughout the entire TAF period for changing
flight categories, especially during Sunday afternoon and early
Sunday evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: Becoming VFR with light E flow.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with shwrs and tstms. Varying winds
with a frontal sys.

Wednesday - Thursday: VFR with W flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions through at least Monday night. Swell may
help build ocean seas to 5 ft starting late in the day Tuesday and
continue into the night. There will be a potential for some 5
ft seas continuing on Wednesday, mainly in S swells as a result
of a slow moving frontal system. Also, some m marginal
nearshore SCA gusts possible during the day Wed in offshore flow
behind cold front. Any SCA seas should fall below SCA
conditions late Wednesday as high pressure builds towards the
water, continuing thru Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts through Monday night.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms Tuesday may produce a basin wide
1/4 to 3/4" of rain. Localized 1+" amounts possible, particularly
N&W of NYC, presenting a low and localized threat of flash flooding
during the daytime.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SE swells remain at 3-4 ft today, mixed with a long period SE
background swell and a building 2 to 3 ft E wind wave. This should
maintain a moderate to high risk of rips with a west to east sweep
of 3 to 4 ft, occasionally 5 ft breaking surf. An E to W longshore
current will likely become favored in the afternoon.

A moderate to possibly high rip risk likely on Monday with 3-4
ft ESE wind waves building, and a background of 1-2 ft SE/S
swells. E to W longshore current would be favored.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...