970
FXUS61 KOKX 022351
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
751 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure remains through midweek. High pressure
then weakens, allowing for a frontal system to approach from the
west. The associated cold front enters within the area late this
week and may linger nearby through the weekend before moving
east of the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Updated for current conditions.

Surface trough moves across this evening. High pressure then
builds thereafter but will have its center well south of the
region. This will keep a relatively warmer airmass in place.
Despite light northerly winds and mostly clear sky conditions,
lows tonight expected to be several degrees warmer than the
previous night, ranging from mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Offshore high pressure remains with dry conditions continuing.
The region becomes established with a persistent SW flow. Warm
air advection will increase as a a result. Tuesday`s forecast
highs are about 5 to 8 degrees warmer than the previous day,
ranging from upper 70s to lower 80s for a majority of the
region. Tuesday night, likewise, expect the warming trend to
continue as lows just will be mainly from lower 50s to lower
60s.

Side note, there has been recent smoke aloft reported from
Canadian wildfires. This has resulted in some haze in the sky
but not significant enough to result to reduce visibilities at
the surface. The HRRR model shows a relative increase in smoke
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night so perhaps another hazy
sunset is in store for Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The synoptic ridge pattern gradually shifts to more of a trough
structure with rain eventually returning to the forecast late
week and towards the weekend.

At the surface, offshore high pressure remains dominant
Wednesday but eventually weakens Thursday into Friday. A frontal
system from the west then approaches with its associated cold
front. This cold front lingers around the area after it moves in
before eventually shifting east of the area late weekend towards
early next week. Rain shower chances highest Friday through
Saturday night and then these rain shower chances lower
thereafter.

Warming trend continues to start with the warmest forecast
temperatures Wednesday through Friday, with upper 80s to near
90 for some locations. Lower temperature trend thereafter with
more rain shower chances in the forecast and eventually more
northerly flow late weekend into early next week.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday, Friday as
well as the first half of the weekend. The more trough synoptic
pattern will allow for greater moisture in the atmosphere with
higher PW values. With warmer temperatures forecast Thursday and
Friday, more low level instability would be available for
thunderstorm growth.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds tonight into Tuesday morning, then moves quickly
offshore Tuesday afternoon.

VFR.

Sea breezes end early this evening, with the winds then becoming
light and variable at all the terminals by the overnight. A
light NW flow develops Tuesday morning before winds briefly
become light and variable before becoming southerly by
afternoon, with sea breeze enhancement. The exception is KSWF
which will remain light and variable much of Tuesday with a
light westerly flow in the afternoon.

Smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires is likely, especially during
Tuesday. Low level visibility will not be impacted.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Possible MVFR/IFR with chance of showers/tstms.

Saturday: Possible MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Chance of
tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
Only minor changes to the winds through tonight, mainly lowering
wind speeds.

Conditions expected to remain below SCA thresholds on all waters
through Thursday night.

Thereafter, conditions trends go up with seas on the ocean. So,
SCA will become more probable Friday through the first half of
the weekend on the ocean. Non-ocean zones are forecast to remain
below SCA thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through midweek. Late week, there are low
probabilities for thunderstorms and forecast models indicates PW
values near 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Some locally heavy rain is
possible, especially with thunderstorms, with minor flooding
possible.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk for the development of rip current at the
ocean beaches Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/MET
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...