595
FXUS61 KBUF 230715
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
215 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring mainly light snowfall through early this
morning, which will change to rain before ending across lower
elevations today. There may be a brief window of freezing rain in a
few locations across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes during the
transition, but any ice will be very minor and quickly melt as
temperatures rise above freezing. Mainly dry weather will then
return for Wednesday through Christmas Day with no travel impacts
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface low pressure will pass well north of the region late tonight
through Tuesday night. An associated warm front and wing of warm
advection and isentropic upglide will cross the eastern Great Lakes
from west to east tonight through Tuesday. Forcing and moisture both
improve overhead late tonight and early Tuesday as this feature is
crossing the eastern Great Lakes, so expect the shield of
precipitation to become better organized overhead, then move east
into the eastern Lake Ontario region by midday. The steady warm
front driven precipitation will end by midday across Western NY,
then taper off later in the afternoon east of Lake Ontario.

As far as precipitation type goes, expect mostly snow tonight
through early Tuesday morning, although the immediate lakeshores may
see some rain mix in as surface temperatures rise just above
freezing. Ongoing warm advection at the surface and through the
column will then allow for a change to rain from west to east on
Tuesday near the end of steady precipitation. Forecast soundings and
high-res guidance suggests there is a brief 1-2 hour window of
freezing rain potential across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes
where surface cold air will be a little slower to retreat. If any
ice materializes it will be brief and very light, with precip ending
or changing to rain quickly.

East of Lake Ontario, the higher terrain will remain mostly snow
through the event. There may be a brief window Tuesday evening where
the mid levels dry and warm, allowing for some freezing drizzle
across the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western
Adirondacks. This will then change back to snow overnight as wrap
around moisture increases and temperatures aloft cool. Wrap around
upslope snow and some lake enhancement will bring some additional
accumulations to the higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and
western Adirondacks overnight.

As far as accumulations go, the greatest amounts will be across the
Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks with 3-6" possible Tuesday
through early Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, accumulations will be
limited to 1-2". A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties for the moderate accumulations
across higher terrain, but impacts for most lower elevation
locations will be minor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Shortwave troughing along the New England coast Wednesday morning
will be supplanted by an area of sfc high pressure and weak ridging
aloft building southeast from the Great Lakes through Wednesday
night. Another passing shortwave across the Ohio Valley and a deeper
trough pivoting across Quebec Wednesday night into Thursday could
bring a few light light snows to far western NY and the North
Country respectively, though chances will be greater across the
latter. A secondary, stronger area of high pressure to the north
moving from central Ontario to Quebec will ensure dry weather
otherwise prevails for Christmas day and much of Thursday night. A
few light snow showers may reach WNY ahead of the next system late
Thursday night.

Temperatures will be seasonably cold with gradually subsiding winds
within the post-frontal environment Wednesday, then warm to near or
slightly above normal for Christmas. Colder air spilling southward
from Canada will lead to a chilly night Thursday night, with lows
near zero across the North Country in particular.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The quiet weather will be short lived as stout high pressure ridging
shifts east of the region Friday. In its wake, a sharp negatively
tilted mid-level shortwave will move into the Northeast with the
poleward exit region of a 250mb jet sneaking overhead. This will
cause a clipper sfc low to ride along a quasi-stationary boundary
draped across the lower Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. Precip
overspreading the area may start out as snow, but overall will
likely be a messy wintry mix with freezing rain certainly possible
as easterly flow around the cold Canadian high to the northeast
undercuts the system`s impinging warm nose. Chances for fzra appear
highest across the Southern Tier, with higher uncertainty further
north, especially around the I-90 corridor. Ptype should remain all
or mostly snow north to northeast of the Finger Lakes.

A general west to east drying trend is expected Friday night, though
chances for freezing rain or drizzle may linger across WNY (mainly
in the S. Tier). Mainly dry weather with just low-end chances for
showers Saturday as a progressive high pressure ridge crests over
the region.

This break will also be short lived as a deepening mid-latitude
cyclone near the Upper Midwest Saturday night tracks east through
early next week, with its longwave trough gradually enveloping the
entire Northeast. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in the exact
track and timing of this system, though rain is favored for most
areas Saturday night into Sunday morning with the potential
exception of the North Country which could see a wintry mix with
fzra. This will all change once the system`s arctic cold front plows
into the region from the west between Sunday evening and early
Monday. This will cause temps to plummet with a changeover to all
snow, a lake effect dominated pattern ensuing, and blustery winds on
top of it all. Far too early to begin speculating on potential
details, though long range ensembles generally advertise an initial
period of westerly flow becoming northwesterly in this regime.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front will cross the area from west to east today, with some
minor snowfall for most areas. At terminals...a mixture of cigs and
vsbys will be found across the region, with IFR in snow.

Tonight...cigs will slowly improve with MVFR to VFR at lower terrain
terminals, IFR across the S. Tier and Tug Hill region.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR CIGS in stratus early, improving to VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...MVFR/IFR with mixed precipitation likely.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will pass well north of the area today through tonight,
bringing another period of stronger winds and high end Small Craft
Advisory conditions to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through early
Wednesday, highest on Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR