791 FXUS61 KALY 251832 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 232 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly move southward across the region today, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler and less humid conditions will follow in the wake of the front for tonight into Saturday along with fair weather. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Saturday night into Sunday as a warm front approaches from the southwest. Hot and humid conditions will then return to the area on Monday and Tuesday of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Messages: * Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for the southern Hudson Valley and NW Connecticut through this afternoon. * Hot and humid conditions return early next week with a medium chance (30%-60%) of feels like temperatures over 95 on Monday and Tuesday. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in effect for the southern Hudson Valley and NW Connecticut where MLCAPE greater than 1500 J/kg in conjunction with 0-6 km shear of 30-40 knots will continue to support splitting thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds. While the watch is in effect through 9 PM, the most likely timeframe for severe thunderstorms will be over the next 2-4 hours. A few lingering showers/thunderstorms may occur with the actual cold front this afternoon across the upper Hudson Valley and Capital Region, but they are expected to end by this evening. Clearing skies will support radiational cooling which should allow temperatures to drop into the 40s across portions of the Adirondacks, with 50s to low/mid 60s elsewhere. Fair weather is expected through the day on Saturday ahead of a low pressure system that will move through the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms look to track into the western Mohawk Valley/eastern Catskills prior to daybreak Sunday, with showers/thunderstorms then spreading eastward and affecting most areas Sunday morning, especially along and south of I-90. While some locally heavy downpours will be possible, the likelihood of flash flooding is low (5%-10% chance). Warm and humid conditions forecast to return to the area on Monday and Tuesday of next week. High temps are forecast to climb into at least the lower 90s in valley areas on these days. However, there is some uncertainty as to how widespread temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Therefore, there is currently a medium chance (30%-60%) that feels like temperatures will be greater than 95 degrees and require Heat Advisories to be issued. The greatest chances for these hazardous conditions looks to be south of the Capital Region. A cold front looks to move through Wednesday, which will result in a medium chance for showers and thunderstorms followed by a return to near normal temperatures for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions are primarily expected through the upcoming TAF period. A cold front moving through the region early this afternoon will bring isolated to scattered showers and storms, which continue to be addressed with PROB30 groups for all terminals. Brief drops to MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in heavier showers and storms. Overnight, expecting fog development at KGFL where high end IFR visibilities have been added for this TAF. Lower visibilities are possible, and will be addressed in subsequent TAFs. KALB may also see some fog, though confidence on categorical impacts to visibility is low at this time. Any fog will burn off by 26/12-13z. Southerly winds around 5-10 kts initially will become westerly after the front around 5-10 kts. Light & variable winds will continue overnight through the remainder of the period. Outlook... Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ052-053-059- 060-064>066. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TH/KL DISCUSSION...TH/KL AVIATION...Speck