063 FXUS61 KOKX 261127 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 727 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the area through early Sunday. A weak frontal system then approaches Sunday. High pressure returns to the area for Monday into Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the west on Tuesday afternoon and moves offshore Tuesday evening. A second cold front follows late Wednesday into early Thursday with high pressure returning to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The cold front has pushed offshore this morning and winds have shifted north/northwest as high pressure builds to the north. As a result, a drier airmass continues to work into the region bringing dewpoints some 5-10 degrees lower than on Friday. Dry conditions are expected for the day with a bit more comfortable temperatures and humidity levels, with highs in the mid 80s for most, and the upper 80s for the urban corridor. Given the lower dewpoints, heat indices today will be near the actual temperature. High clouds will be on the increase this afternoon into this evening in advance of the next frontal system to impact the area Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak upper ridging becomes more of a zonal flow aloft as a shortwave approaches from the west. Aforementioned surface high pressure is slow to move east Sunday morning as a trough/warm front and associated low pressure system approach from the west. Precip chances thus increase on Sunday morning from west to east as the front slides near the area. Instability per BUFKIT soundings looks weak in the AM, so any thunder looks isolated initially. Mid and low level dry air also looks to remain entrenched for at least part of Sunday AM, so precip may have some difficulty initially. Model soundings do show an appreciable increase in PWAT, with over 2" by Sunday afternoon along with a modest increase in instability (MUCAPE 500-1000J) and shear (0-6km shear values ~30kts) with the approaching shortwave. SPC maintains a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for the area on Sunday. With cloud cover around, highs will be mainly in the low 80s, with a more humid feel as dewpoints rebound into the low 70s by Sunday evening under the southerly flow. An increase in heat and humidity on Monday as weak ridging builds back in behind the departing shortwave. Dry weather is expected. However, h850 temperatures approach 20-21C Monday afternoon with dewpoint in the mid 70s (per NBM). Thus, heat indices of 100-105 for northeast NJ and 95-100 elsewhere look possible once again. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The NBM was followed with no changes. Key Points: * High heat and humidity will continue on Tuesday, potentially lingering into Wednesday. The peak of the heat currently looks to occur on Tuesday with max heat index values 100 to around 105F. Wednesdays heat index values remain below 100. * A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening with a weak cold front. The threat for showers and thunderstorms continues Wednesday, potentially lingering into Thursday as a stronger cold front moves into the area. * Temperatures trend down to end the week with potential of below normal temperatures. Humidity levels also should be much lower than the first half of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure briefly builds into the region today. A warm front approaches the area from the west tonight. Winds will start off from the north-northeast around 10 kt or less. Winds will veer through much of the day becoming southeast by afternoon with speeds 7-10 kt. Tonight, winds become light at most terminals from the south. A few showers will be possible after 06z tonight. MVFR cigs will be possible late in the TAF period. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of winds veering today may vary by 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Sunday: MVFR conditions possible, especially in any showers or thunderstorms. Monday: VFR. Tuesday - Wednesday: Mainly VFR with possible MVFR or lower in showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A brief period of 20 kt gusts are possible in wake of a frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday morning. Otherwise, sub SCA conditions are likely through Monday. A relatively weak pressure gradient Tuesday through the end of the week will lead to conditions staying below SCA levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal system could produce locally heavy downpours on Sunday that result in nuisance flooding. WPC maintains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, but the overall widespread flood threat appears low at this time. There are currently no hydrologic concerns next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A moderate rip current risk continues today with a mixture of lingering 1 to 2 ft S wind swell and a developing 3 ft wind wave. Based on RCMOS and NWPS guidance, the moderate rip risk continues on Sunday, with lingering 1 to 2 ft S wind swell and a developing 3 ft wind wave. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/DBR NEAR TERM...DBR SHORT TERM...DBR LONG TERM... AVIATION...BC MARINE...BC/DBR HYDROLOGY...BC/DBR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...