477
FXUS61 KBUF 162331
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
731 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Stacked low pressure over Quebec will SLOWLY lose its grip on our
region during the course of tonight. While it will remain quite
chilly with temperatures falling into the 20s in most areas...clouds
will slowly clear out. High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will
move over our region on Thursday...supporting sun filled skies and
temperatures that will top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The
mercury will then soar into the 60s for Friday with the Genesee
valley and parts of the western Southern Tier possibly reaching the
lower 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cyclonic flow of moist chilly air will remain in place through
this evening...as a stacked low over eastern Canada will slowly
pinwheel further north across the eastern reaches of Quebec.
There remains just a few light rain or snow showers east of Lake
Ontario, but these will taper off during the evening hours. During
the course of the night though...an axis of high pressure over
the Upper Great Lakes will approach our region. Notably drier
air associated with this feature will support clearing skies
with unseasonably chilly air already in place...we can look
forward to the mercury dropping to between 25 and 30.

The swath of high pressure will cross our forecast area on Thursday.
This will allow for sun filled skies and higher temperatures with
readings readings generally climbing into the upper 40s to lower
50s.

Fair dry weather will persist Thursday night...as the area of high
pressure will push away to our east. It will not be as chilly...as a
non-diurnal temp trend will help to keep the mercury above freezing
over the western counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A flattening mid-level ridge will shift east across New England
Friday, then be gradually supplanted by a positively tilted
troughing back across the Great Lakes through Saturday night. A warm
front between these two features will first lift through the
forecast area on Friday, which in addition to bringing another 15-20
degree surge in high temps for the day, will likely bring a wealth
of clouds and some scattered showers. Models have overall been
trending overall drier across southern portions of the region as
this feature moves through, keeping the bulk of the shower activity
during the daytime hours closer to the southern Lake Ontario
shoreline and the North Country.

A pair of cold fronts will then move across the eastern Great Lakes
from the northwest late Friday night through Saturday. Several waves
of Gulf-based moisture advecting into the region ahead of these
features will result in more widespread showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms. A slow drying and cooling trend will then take place
later Saturday through Saturday night as high pressure builds back
in through Sunday, though there remains some uncertainty here in how
quickly this occurs and if any moisture/forcing manages to move into
WNY ahead of the next system.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A closed low pressure system will track out of the Upper Midwest
Sunday night and across the western/central Great Lakes through
Monday. This will result in another pair of frontal boundaries
moving through the forecast area with seasonably warm temps and a
few rounds of showers likely. This said, typical long range
uncertainties in exact timing and track of these features lends to
keeping PoPs close to deterministic NBM in Chc or low-end lkly
range through early Monday night. Another drying trend then expected
later Monday night through Tuesday night before the next weak system
may reach the area later Wednesday, though uncertainty is
considerable by this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There remains some lingering MVFR cigs across the region, but
there will be gradual west to east clearing tonight, which will
allow all TAF sites to improve to VFR this evening. VFR
weather can be expected under high pressure on Thursday.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR conditions...but with scattered rain showers outside of
the western Southern Tier. MVFR conditions at times with showers
likely east of Lake Ontario.
Saturday...VFR to MVFR cigs with rain showers.
Sunday...VFR.
Monday...VFR but with scattered showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories on the lakes will last through this
evening, with some variance in end times based on location.
Stronger winds will start to come down tonight, but remain
somewhat elevated Thursday, before finally subsiding Thursday
night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ043-
         044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Apffel/RSH
MARINE...Apffel/JM/TMA