193
FXUS61 KBUF 220738
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
338 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A soaking rain moves into the region today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A soaking rain moves into the region today.

A potent shortwave trough, that is partially convectively enhanced,
will track across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes into WNY
through the day today. Out ahead of this trough, showers associated
with a west to east oriented ribbon of vorticity and warm front is
pushing into southwestern NY early this morning. This area of
showers will continue to push northeast into the areas south of Lake
Ontario through daybreak. Most guidance breaks up the showers with
northeast progress into the area as associated vorticity weakens.
Another area of rain will then fill in from southwest to northeast
starting around and shortly after daybreak as the more potent
shortwave energy approaches the area.

Steady rain is expected for most of the area into the afternoon.
Rainfall may be moderate to at times heavy as the trough crosses the
area and an influx of moisture accompanies it. A warm front will be
draped across the area as the trough crosses the region, which will
also help to increase forcing as well, supporting the widespread
rain. Some thunderstorms will be possible, mainly near the NY/PA
border, where more instability will be available, heavier downpours
will  be possible with any thunderstorms. The sfc low associated
with the system will track across Pennsylvania later in the day,
along the axis of a larger trough extending south out of Canada.

The back edge of the steadier rain and showers should move out of
the WNY area by late afternoon, and out of the North Country by the
early to mid evening time. Guidance is still in disagreement with
the ending of the steadier showers by +/- a few hours of the times
mentioned above. A few showers will be possible through the
evening after the steadier rain tapers off. With low level
moisture remaining across most of the area tonight, mist and/or
drizzle will be possible as well for at least the first half of
the night tonight.

Higher rainfall amounts have shifted slightly north, but the main
axis of higher rain still remains across the Western Southern Tier
to the Finger Lakes, where around an inch of rainfall will be
possible. Rainfall amounts will lower to a half inch or less for the
western Lake Ontario shoreline and North Country.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will persist through around daybreak, although
light rain will advance northeast across western NY through the
early morning hours. CIGS will then deteriorate to MVFR/IFR from
southwest to northeast through midday/early afternoon. IFR/LIFR will
be most common across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and
Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region (KJHW/KROC), with mainly MVFR
CIGS found elsewhere through the day. A steady rain (moderate at
times) will also advance northeast across the area during this same
timeframe with a mix of mainly VFR/MVFR VSBY.

Steady rain will taper off from west to east late this afternoon
through this evening. IFR/MVFR CIGS will persist into the evening
hours, however a gradual northwest to southeast improvement is
expected through the overnight hours. However, a plethora of
lingering low level moisture will likely lead to areas of
MVFR/IFR/LIFR VSBY in fog and stratus intersecting the hilltops
across the higher terrain, especially south of Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Becoming VFR.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
The wind will become northeast and increase during the day today as
an area of low pressure tracks south of the region. Winds this
afternoon will remain mostly below SCA levels with a light to
moderate chop on the lakes. One area that is expected to be very
close to lower end SCA levels is the Ripley to Dunkirk portion of
Lake Erie. An SCA may be needed for this zone for the afternoon
hours today.

After this afternoon, winds and waves are expected to remain below
SCA levels through at least the middle of the week, but choppy
conditions will be possible at times.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...SW