425
FXUS61 KBUF 161921
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
221 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a surface ridge of high pressure our region will enter a
period with not as cold airmasses, with temperatures for much of the
region tomorrow rising above the freezing mark. A weak cold front
passing through the region tomorrow will yield a few light rain or
snow showers, especially east of Lake Ontario. It will also become
windy within this warming airmass, with gusty winds late tonight and
tomorrow morning...followed by a period of stronger gusts Thursday
night through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The last of lake effect flurries east of Lake Ontario are ending
this early afternoon. Low stratus is eroding from the south slowly,
with a mix of sunshine and high clouds to our south.

Attention will turn to a warming airmass behind a surface ridge of
high pressure along with increasing wind gusts.

A strong LLJ of 50 knots will be found along a weak cold front that
will drop across our region late tonight and tomorrow morning. Warm
air advection ahead of the front will limit mixing heights, along
with producing poor lapse rates. There is a small window right
behind the front tomorrow morning of southwest winds gusting
potentially to around 40 knots for the Niagara Frontier, but this
potential is still too low in confidence and duration for a wind
advisory at this time. Supporting sub 40 knot gusts is also the 12Z
CIPS analogs which display under 20 percent of observations with 40
knots within similar synoptic setups. Will continue with continuity
of southwest gusts along the lake Erie shoreline and northern
Niagara Frontier to 45 mph, with gusts slightly weaker to the
east...generally in the 25 to 35 mph range.

Otherwise tomorrow, a weak cold front passing across our region will
yield a few light rain and snow showers. Greatest chances will be
east of Lake Ontario, closer to lift ahead of a shortwave and within
deeper moisture. Little to no snow accumulation expected.

Behind the weak cold front will have another period of fair weather
for Wednesday night with a ridge of high pressure advancing across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level low centered over the northern Plains Thursday morning
will support deep and broad troughing across the central portions of
the CONUS. This low will eventually open up into a trough by
Thursday night as it passes eastward into the upper Great Lakes,
before finishing its eastward progression and becoming negatively
tilted across the Northeast by Friday night and further lift
northeast across New England Friday night. Meanwhile at the surface,
a strong surface low over the northern Plains Thursday morning will
slide east-southeast across southern Ontario, Canada and into
central Quebec Friday. There continues to remain uncertainty with
the exact timing and intensity with this surface low, but there
continues to be medium to high confidence that this low will pass by
to the northwest of New York State. Additionally, a low level jet of
60-55 knots will push across the region late Thursday into Thursday
night. Given the wind direction will be orientated out of the south,
strong downslope winds will be favorable with peak surface wind
gusts of up to 60mph possible on the north and northwest sides of
the higher terrain (Mainly impacting north of the Chautauqua Ridge
and north of the Tug Hill Plateau/eastern Adirondacks area). This
being said, a swift southerly breeze will be likely Thursday night
due to a tight surface pressure gradient.

Outside of the winds, timing of the cold frontal passage associated
with the aforementioned surface low continues to trend later and
later, with its passage now occurring Thursday night. Ahead of the
passage, strong warm air advection will support temperatures to soar
above average for the first time in a while. Highs Thursday will
climb up into the 40s with the cooler temperature readings found
across the higher terrain. Ahead of the cold frontal passage, expect
widespread rain to spill across the region late Thursday into
Thursday night. With this rain, limited instability a rumble or two
of thunder can`t be ruled out completely.

Cold air will quickly advect across the region in the wake of the
cold frontal passage Friday morning, changing rain to snow from west
to east. A secondary cold frontal passage late Friday morning will
support colder air to filter in across the region through Friday
night, resulting in breezy westerly winds, falling temperatures and
snow showers. Wind gusts up to 50mph are possible across western New
York Friday afternoon. Additionally, with the colder air arriving,
accumulating lake effect snow will be possible, with the best
chances lying east of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quasi-zonal flow across the region Saturday will give way to
troughing setting up over the Great Lakes region through Monday.
Quasi-zonal flow will then set up through the start of the week.
This all being said, a clipper system will pass north of the area
Saturday through Sunday, resulting in an unsettled period with
possible rain and snow showers. Colder air may fill in behind this
system, supporting some lake enhanced snow showers Sunday night
through Monday. Surface high pressure will then act to dry out
activity from west to east Monday and Monday night, before the next
system slides to the north of the area Tuesday, supporting renewed
chances for some widespread rain/snow.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 18Z TAFS a deck of MVFR stratus is quickly eroding from
the south, leaving now much of WNY VFR ceiling heights. We will
return to VFR flight conditions regionwide by this evening as
winds become more southerly, and southwesterly. A strong 50 knot
LLJ will develop later tonight and through the end of the TAF
cycle, which will produce LLWS for times when the surface winds
are not gusting. Strongest surface gusts are expected between
06Z and 15Z for KIAG and KBUF.

A few light rain and snow showers upon this front, with increasing
low level moisture lowering cloud bases to MVFR the final 6-9 hours
of the TAF cycle, with higher terrain (KJHW) likely dropping to
IFR ceiling heights.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon...A period of MVFR/higher terrain IFR ceilings,
with a chance for a few rain/snow showers, especially east of Lake
Ontario.

Thursday...VFR with a chance of showers late. Increasing winds.

Thursday night...Deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing from
west to east. Strong wind gusts, especially in downslope areas.

Friday...Rain changing to snow showers from west to east early.
MVFR/IFR improving to VFR/MVFR in most areas, with lake effect snow
showers bringing local IFR east of the lakes. Very windy.

Saturday and Sunday...MVFR/VFR in scattered light snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cold front
will bring another round of strong winds to the lower Great Lakes
late tonight through Wednesday. Sustained winds will peak in the 30-
35 knot range. A low end Gale Warning has been issued for Lake
Ontario from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon, with a high
end Small Craft Advisory for Lake Erie.

Strong low pressure will then move across Ontario and Quebec
Thursday through Friday, with a trailing powerful cold front
crossing the lower Great Lakes late Thursday night. Southerly winds
will increase to near gale force Thursday ahead of the cold front,
then swing around to westerly Friday behind the front with gales
likely on both lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042-
         062.
         Gale Warning from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
         LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock/Thomas