327 FXUS61 KBGM 030127 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 927 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the region into the middle of the week. A cold frontal boundary and several waves of low pressure will move through the region at the end of the week with more showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Slightly adjusted the sky cover to account for the haze with the evening updates. Remainder of forecast discussion below on track. Temperatures starting to drop off fairly quick now too. 10 AM Update... The near term is expected to remain dry with a strong upper level ridge building in. 500 mb heights will be building from around 550 dm this morning up to almost 585-590 dm by Tuesday night. Temperatures will warm rapidly today and tomorrow with above average temperatures expected (Last time temperatures were more than a degree warmer than average was May 17th). Despite the ridge building in, surface high in place and light winds with clear skies will make for efficient radiational cooling tonight. Given that we are warming up much warmer than last night and surface dew points have been slow to fall with the evaporation largely keeping up with dry air mixing down from aloft, frost is not a concern. Tomorrow night is a similar story though with highs in the 80s and return flow developing aloft as the ridge axis moves east, lows will be much warmer than the last few days. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 300 PM Update... Strong ridging to start off the short term on Wednesday will lead to the warmest day of the year so far. Lower elevations across the region may make a run for 90 degrees. Forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon do show some good instability developing but a strong subsidence inversion should keep the region capped. Given the heat and the wet grounds, there is a small chance there ends up being just enough heating for a thunderstorm or two to develop in NY but given the low probability, was kept out of the forecast grids for now. Late Wednesday night into Thursday there is better chances for showers and thunderstorms as the ridge continues to break down and move east with a low amplitude trough digging into the Great Lakes. A weak front drops through Thursday sparking off showers and thunderstorms. Timing of the front on Thursday is uncertain as it can range from early morning to late afternoon. The later in the day that the front can progress through, the better the environment will be for some severe thunderstorms. Right now looking at the Ensemble members for both the EPS and GEFS, there is about a 30% chance that we can get over 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and shear greater than 30 knots. A few showers and storms could linger into Thursday night as there is indications that the front may stall. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 300 PM Update... The main concern in the long term is the weekend with a potential tropical system forming under a cut off low off of the Carolina coast. Ensemble upper level flow shows a trough trying to dig in and if the tropical low can form and move north, there is a chance that the trough could stall with deep moisture advecting into it. Either way with a trough digging in for the weekend we are looking at showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Sunday may be drier if the tropical low does not form or strengthen much allowing the trough to continue to progress east. The warmer and more unsettled pattern will continue into early next week. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... No changes from the 18Z TAF set discussed below. High pressure has built in with VFR conditions expected over the next 48 hours at all terminals with light winds. ELM has a small chance at fog tonight with the clear skies but given the short nights and dew points getting low this afternoon, confidence was too low to put in this period. Outlook... Tuesday night into Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Smoke or haze aloft possible at times. Thursday through Saturday...Chance for showers and associated restrictions, mainly in the afternoons. && .CLIMATE... The forecast high at Binghamton is forecasted to be 85 degrees on Wednesday 6/4. This would break the old record of 84 set back in 1951. Both Syracuse and Scranton forecasted highs are expected to be well under the record values. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK NEAR TERM...AJG/MWG SHORT TERM...AJG LONG TERM...AJG AVIATION...AJG/MWG CLIMATE...MWG