934 FXUS61 KALY 162348 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 748 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A chilly northwest flow will remain in place tonight into Thursday morning. Temperatures will moderate to near normal levels Thursday afternoon with dry conditions. Friday starts out dry, although a warm front approaching late in the day could bring some showers and even a few thunderstorms into Friday night. Much warmer temperatures expected on Saturday as the warm front lifts north of our area. Highs could reach well into the 70s across lower elevations. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message: - West to northwest winds will continue to gust between 30-45 mph into this evening. Discussion: .UPDATE...Mostly cloudy skies continue across the region, with some snow showers across higher elevations of southern VT into the Berkshires, as well as across portions of the SW Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and NE Catskills. Overall coverage of snow showers should decrease over the next 1-2 hours as shortwave passes through. Clouds may briefly break in some valley locations over the next hour, however clouds may reform as subsidence inversion lowers with lingering moisture trapped beneath. Strong west/northwest winds may decrease slightly, with max gusts of 30-40 mph possible through around 10 PM, although some slightly stronger gusts may still occur during this time across the Berkshires. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. [PREVIOUS]...The center of an upper low continue to track north across the Canadian Maritimes into tonight, while a broad trough remains in place across the Northeast CONUS. With a decent pressure gradient remaining in place, northwest winds will still gust 30-45 mph at times into this evening. There have been a few wind gusts of 45-50 mph at KALB, but otherwise gusts have been < 45 mph. Even with the persistent wind, low temperatures look below normal ranging from the mid/upper 20s in the mountains to lower/mid 30s in the valleys. Along with NW flow, there will be enough moisture to result in upslope snow showers persisting into parts of the W. Adirondacks and S. Greens through at least the first half of tonight with an additional dusting to 1" in some spots. On Thu, high pressure to our west will gradually build eastward into our area during the afternoon. There will still be enough of a pressure gradient much of the day for NW winds to gust 15-25 mph, but not as strong as Wed. Subsidence should lead to plenty of sunshine by late morning. After a chilly start, temperatures will moderate to reach highs in the 50s in lower elevations with cooler 40s in the higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: - High confidence in well above normal temperatures Saturday. - Medium chances(40-70%) for showers with a low chance(20-30%) for thunderstorms on Saturday north/west of Albany ahead of a cold front. Discussion: High pressure moves east across the area Thu night, so winds will diminish. This will also lead to good radiational cooling conditions with clear skies and light winds, as low temperatures cool into the 20s to lower 30s. On Fri, high pressure will quickly shifts eastward off the coast with a warmer southerly flow developing around the departing high. So after a chilly start to the day, temperatures should warm into the lower/mid 60s in lower elevations. Clouds will increase in the afternoon ahead of a warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley region, with a chance of some light showers developing late in the day. Most of the day looks to be dry for much of the area though. The aforementioned warm front will continue to lift north/east across our area Fri night, brining additional chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms due to the presence of some elevated instability. Greatest probs for showers(50-70%) looks to be over the Adirondacks where the best forcing will be, with decreasing chances (20-40%) farther south/east. Low temperatures look much milder with mid 40s to lower 50s. On Sat, much of the region should get into a warm sector in wake of the warm front passage, although the system`s cold front will already be encroaching on the Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley during the afternoon with clouds/showers developing. However, farther south/east temperatures could get quite warm ahead of the cold front with a gusty SW breeze developing. NBM probs for highs > 70F are 70- 95% in lower elevations from around the Hudson Valley east. There is a slight chance for some thunder north/west of Albany as SBCAPE forecast to be in the 300-700 J/Kg range, but this is also dependent on if any sunshine can occur since low level moisture looks limited (dewpoints low/mid 50s). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message: - Active weather pattern next week with daily chances (15%) of light precipitation. Discussion: As the low pressure system heads east, Sunday is looking to be a pleasant Spring day with highs in 50s and 60s as surface high pressure builds in from the west. Winds could be breezy in the early morning hours and early afternoon, but diminish to light and calm for Sunday night. Depending on when the second cold front moves through and cloud coverage, temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning could range between 10 and 15 degrees than currently forecasted as latest National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.2 probabilistic data suggests temperatures could be in the low 30s and upper 40s. An active weather pattern continues Monday and Tuesday next week with daily chances of light precipitation, mostly in the form of rain as temperatures should remain above freezing. Monday night into Tuesday is looking most favorable for accumulating precipitation amounts of greater than 0.1 inches as latest probabilities range between 40 and 60 percent. Finally feeling like spring outside next week with highs in the 50s and 60s. Overnight temperatures don`t get too cold either with lows in the upper 30s across the western Adirondacks and in the 40s elsewhere. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Moisture wrapping around a departing storm system will bring occasional MVFR Cigs to KALB through this evening and more persistent MVFR Cigs at KPSF most of tonight, with VFR Cigs expected elsewhere. Cigs could occasionally dip into borderline IFR levels at KPSF later tonight. Any Cigs should lift by 10Z-13Z/Thu, with VFR conditions then expected through the day. West/northwest winds will remain strong through this evening, with sustained speeds of 12-18 KT and occasional gusts of 25-35 KT. Speeds/gusts will decrease after midnight to 5-12 KT with gusts of 15-23 KT. On Thursday, west to northwest winds will increase to 8-15 KT with gusts up to 25 KT expected by late morning into the afternoon, strongest at KALB and KPSF. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Minimum RH values Thursday drop to 20 to 30 percent... Thursday may be a day with elevated fire weather concerns as RH values drop to 20-30% for valley areas with wind gusts of 20-25 mph. We have coordinated with state partners with regards to fuels being dry enough to support an elevated risk of fire spread. This will occur in eastern NY for the Catskill, Upper Hudson and Middle Hudson fire weather zones. A Special Weather Statement will be issued this evening for fire weather concerns in NY for Thursday afternoon. On Friday, minimum RH values should not be as low as Thursday with 30-45% expected. Southerly winds will be increasing during the afternoon, with gusts of 15-25 mph developing. So it appears conditions will not be as conducive for fire spread. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...KL/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Webb AVIATION...KL FIRE WEATHER...KL/Main