052 FXUS61 KALY 111743 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 143 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions return to eastern New York and western New England through much of the remainder of the week before chances for rain increase once again for the weekend. Temperatures will be rather variable over the coming days with seasonable to above normal values expected today and tomorrow before trending back to below normal levels Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .Update...As of 1:30 PM EDT...Clouds have increased across the region as we have hit our convective temperature, but it remains dry across the region with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s for valley areas and upper 60s to around 70 in the high terrain. Overall, little change to the previous forecast, which remains in good shape. Please see below for more details... .Previous...After an extended period of dreary weather, a much needed reprieve begins today as surface high pressure builds northeastward beneath zonal flow aloft. Plenty of sunshine, fairly deep mixing, and modest height rises will yield a noticeable increase in temperatures compared to recent days with highs looking to reach the low 70s to low 80s. And, with a bit of a breeze to mitigate high humidity, conditions will be made to feel rather pleasant and much more like June. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Tranquility persists this evening and into the overnight with low temperatures falling to the mid 50s to low 60s. Though skies will remain mostly clear, outside of areas north of Albany where a minor increase in cloud cover and a possible stray shower (Adirondacks) is anticipated ahead of an incoming cold frontal boundary, fog development is not likely given the drying of soils from ample sunshine during the day. The aforementioned cold front will track through the region from northwest to southeast Thursday, though a lack of moisture will mitigate any precipitation. In fact, the primary impact of this front as far as Thursday is concerned is an increase in magnitude of the breeze in comparison to today. Highs will remain near to above normal with values in the upper 60s to mid 80s. By Thursday evening, the primary cold front will have cleared our southern-most zones, but looks to stall just to our south. Weak troughing developing aloft and unsettled surface conditions could allow some light showers to develop within the southeast Catskills, southern Mid-Hudson Valley, and southern Litchfield County overnight, but most of the activity will occur to our south and west. Lows Thursday night will fall to the mid/upper 40s to upper 50s. Much of the day Friday will remain dry as waves of low pressure develop upstream along the stalled boundary to our south. As these eastward-propagating waves interact with a weak shortwave aloft Friday evening into Friday night, an area of rain will develop and spread into the region from southwest to northeast. There are still some differences in the guidance pertaining to the timing and spatial spread of rain, but rainfall rates generally look to be light. Highs Friday begin the downward trend towards below normal heading into the weekend with upper 60s to upper 70s likely. Lows Friday night will fall to the upper 40s to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Message: -Marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday due to a moist airmass interacting with a nearby slow moving frontal boundary. Discussion: A nearly stationary frontal boundary will be located just south of the region for Saturday, with a wave of low pressure sliding along the front. This surface boundary will be aided by a weak upper level disturbance moving across the Ohio Valley. With a south to southwest flow in place, plenty of moisture will be streaming over the boundary and into the region. Mean PWAT values from the latest NAEFS look to be around 1.50 inches, which is about 1-2 STD above normal. This is a good setup for some locally heavy downpours over the Northeast, although the exact placement of the heaviest showers is still difficult to determine this far out. WPC has the region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and considering the recent rainy pattern, moist soils and typical setup for heavy rainfall, repeated showers could bring some localized hydro issues for Saturday. Will go with NBM POPs, showing likely showers for much of the region. Rumble or two of thunder can`t be ruled out, but strong storms aren`t anticipated with our area on the northern side of the boundary and temps in the 70s, along with plenty of cloud cover. Some showers could linger into Sunday, although the boundary may shifting further south into the mid Atlantic through the day, so the main threat may shift south of the area. Will keep POPs in the chance range, although a fairly cloudy sky may keep temps in the 60s to low 70s for Father`s Day. Another disturbance will be approaching from the Great Lakes for early next week. This will keep the threat for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Monday into Tuesday, although it won`t be a steady rainfall and probably won`t be raining this entire time. Temps will be slightly below normal, but still comfortable in the 70s for highs for most areas. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR flying conditions through this afternoon as some diurnally driven clouds with ceilings around 5-6kft from scattered cumulus populate the skies. As we cool below our convective temperature by 22 - 00 UTC, the cumulus should dissipate resulting in mainly clear skies. A secondary cold front passes through the terminals tonight by 06 - 09 UTC resulting in additional SCT-BKN cigs around 3.5 - 5kft but most should remain dry. Slightly breezy conditions this afternoon with sustained west- southwest winds 5-10kts with gusts up to 20kts. While winds decrease by 22 - 01 UTC tonight, sustained winds remain around 3-5kts overnight. Included potential for low-level wind shear by 06 UTC at all terminals as a strong low-level jet tracks overhead with winds at 2kft around 40kts. LLWS diminishes by 12 UTC as sfc winds become gusty. Expecting sustained westerly winds around 10-12kts with gusts up to 20kts. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant NEAR TERM...Gant/Main SHORT TERM...Gant LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Speciale