887 FXUS65 KABQ 222033 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 233 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 138 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 - Elevated fire weather conditions will persist over parts of northwest New Mexico and the upper Rio Grande Valley until sunset. - The coverage of showers and storms with heavy rainfall will increase over eastern New Mexico today and Monday then spread to much of northern and central New Mexico Monday night through Wednesday. A few storms over eastern New Mexico may be strong to severe today and Monday. - While many locations will receive beneficial soaking rainfall, isolated locations along and east of the Continental Divide may receive heavy rainfall that produces excessive runoff and a high risk of flash flooding. Burn scars will be extremely vulnerable to flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 138 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 There were only minor changes to the ongoing forecast thru Monday night. The focus for the rest of today into tonight will be strong to severe storms developing over eastern NM. Low level moisture continues to advect northward on deepening southerly flow across the plains. Storms have already begun firing up along the high terrain of Lincoln County. This activity will grow downstream into an unstable airmass with surface-based CAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg over the Caprock and NM/TX border. Marginal bulk shear values of 20 to 30kt will support some hail so damaging winds are the main threat. PWATs are climbing closer to 1.5" over southeast NM so the threat for localized flooding is also possible from cells with very heavy rainfall this evening. Convective outflow and backing of vertical wind profiles will help to force moisture farther north and west toward the central mt chain late tonight. Low stratus may impact eastern NM overnight along with a few light showers. An upper level trough entering southern NV Monday and a sprawling upper level ridge over the eastern U.S. will allow 700-500mb flow to become more southerly while increasing over NM. Guidance is in good agreement that ascent will increase while a 55-65kt speed max ejects northward across western NM. Meanwhile, moist southeast surface winds over eastern NM will converge along the central mt chain with drier south-southwest winds over central and western NM. Bulk shear in this environment is more impressive than today with similar CAPE values so a few strong storms are likely again. Convective initiation is expected over the Ruidoso area by late morning then over more of the central highlands and eastern plains by the afternoon. Given the high PWAT environment, storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall and there is a high risk for flash flooding in the Ruidoso area. Outflows from storms over eastern NM are likely to develop additional storms along the central mt chain and nearby Rio Grande Valley by late afternoon. Confidence is not high enough that heavy rainfall will impact areas as far north as the HPCC burn scar to issue a Flash Flood Watch at this time. Meanwhile, the focus for excessive rainfall may shift to southeast NM Monday evening where the storms from the Ruidoso area build into a large convective complex while moving southeast across Chaves and Roosevelt counties. Meso-beta heavy rainfall analysis shows this cluster propagating southeast at less than <10 mph with localized max QPF amounts from hi-res ensembles >3". An expansion of the Flash Flood Watch may be warranted for areas farther east of Ruidoso Monday. The rest of Monday night will feature scattered showers and storms spreading north into more areas along and east of the Continental Divide and the Rio Grande Valley. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 138 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Tuesday is still the day to watch for significant impacts from widespread showers and storms with torrential rainfall. The latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook has expanded the `Moderate Risk` for flash flooding to more of central NM while PWATs are near record values for late June. Models are also coming into better agreement that surface-based instability will be place over much of NM with mid level convergence, positive vorticity advection, and stretching of the theta-e ridge axis across central NM. Hi-res models are still showing storms erupting by early afternoon over all the high terrain before spreading northward and expanding into nearby highlands and valleys. Conditions will be favorable for stationary and training storm cells as they latch onto the higher terrain while building slowly east/southeast before moving northward in the mean flow. Flash Flood Watches are almost a certainty at this point (>80% likelihood) for a large area of central NM. There is still a low chance (<20%) that too much cloud cover, cooler temps, and a lack of proper timing from forcing aloft limits instability available for greater coverage of storms with heavy rainfall. There is also uncertainty with respect to the potential for strong to severe storms over the region once storms do form. The moisture gradient over western NM will be closer to more sunshine and the forcing with the trough approaching from the Great Basin. The Continental Divide may serve as a more unstable initiation point for storms. This area of storms is shown by several models merging with storms farther east into a large area of heavy rainfall over central NM Tuesday night. Forecast confidence begins to deteriorate during this period since there are several key features that still need more time to pin down on guidance, including the arrival of a warm-core low sliding north from northern MX and timing/placement of the upstream upper level trough. Nonetheless, the threat for flash flooding still exists Tuesday night with potential for some main stem rivers and their tributaries to begin rising within central NM. The latest NAM12 trends have the heavier QPF focused along and east of the central mt chain Tuesday night. This can be seen in the NBM QPF trends over the past few runs as well. The overall pattern remains relatively unchanged Wednesday so more storms with heavy rainfall are likely, especially for areas along and east of the central mt chain. Additional Flash Flood Watches are very likely (>60%) with more severe to extreme burn scar flooding possible. Extended models still show the upper level trough washing out over the southern Rockies Thursday then eventually giving way to another upper level ridge building over the southwest U.S. Friday. Remnant moisture over NM will still keep chances for showers and storms in the picture Thursday and Friday. Storm motions will become very slow so any additional rainfall on already saturated soils may keep the flood threat going thru the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Central and western NM will remain under the influence of very dry, hot, and breezy southwest winds today. SHRA/TS are expected to fire up along the east slopes of the Sacramento/Capitan Mts around 1pm then move northeast across eastern NM thru sunset. Some of these storms may become severe with downburst wind gusts in excess of 50KT, hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall, especially along the Caprock and near the TX/NM border. SHRA/TS will persist well into the evening around KROW while deep moisture surges northward into the area. Widespread MVFR low cigs are possible from near KLVS eastward across much of eastern NM after midnight. However, confidence on areal coverage of broken cigs is still low to moderate at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Marginally critical fire weather conditions will persist over far northwest NM and the upper Rio Grande Valley through sunset. Very dry and hot conditions will continue Monday across the west however winds are likely to trend lighter than recent days. The focus will shift to widespread wetting rainfall this week as a very rich tap of monsoon moisture surges north into NM. Showers and storms will increase over eastern NM today then build more into central NM Monday and Monday night. A few storms will produce torrential rainfall with footprints >1.5" possible, leading to a high risk of burn scar flash flooding. The most widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected Tuesday and Wednesday along and east of the Continental Divide. There is still some uncertainty regarding the primary focus area for the heaviest rainfall depending on the timing and depth of an upper level trough over the Great Basin. Nonetheless, forecast confidence is moderate to high that many areas south and east of the ABQ metro will pick up 1 to 2" with locally higher amounts in excess of 4" possible. This will very helpful for taming current wildfires and mitigating the severity of any additional fires going forward. However, the burn scar flash flood threat may become extreme. There is still a threat for additional slow-moving storms with heavy rainfall Thursday and perhaps Friday over central and southern areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 52 90 58 87 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 42 86 48 81 / 0 0 10 30 Cuba............................ 50 85 54 77 / 0 5 20 60 Gallup.......................... 44 87 47 83 / 0 0 0 20 El Morro........................ 47 85 51 79 / 0 0 5 50 Grants.......................... 46 89 52 79 / 0 5 10 60 Quemado......................... 49 86 53 81 / 0 0 10 50 Magdalena....................... 57 86 62 78 / 0 20 40 90 Datil........................... 50 85 54 75 / 0 10 20 80 Reserve......................... 48 90 50 84 / 0 0 10 40 Glenwood........................ 54 93 56 88 / 0 5 10 40 Chama........................... 42 80 47 75 / 0 0 20 50 Los Alamos...................... 57 83 59 75 / 0 20 40 70 Pecos........................... 53 81 57 72 / 5 30 50 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 81 53 75 / 0 10 20 70 Red River....................... 42 72 45 67 / 0 20 30 70 Angel Fire...................... 38 75 44 69 / 0 20 30 80 Taos............................ 47 85 52 77 / 0 20 30 60 Mora............................ 48 78 51 70 / 5 30 50 80 Espanola........................ 55 91 60 82 / 0 20 30 70 Santa Fe........................ 56 85 59 75 / 0 30 50 80 Santa Fe Airport................ 55 88 60 79 / 0 30 40 80 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 92 66 81 / 0 20 50 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 62 93 66 83 / 0 20 40 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 95 66 85 / 0 20 40 70 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 61 93 66 85 / 0 20 40 70 Belen........................... 60 95 65 86 / 0 20 40 80 Bernalillo...................... 61 95 65 84 / 0 20 40 70 Bosque Farms.................... 59 94 64 85 / 0 20 40 70 Corrales........................ 61 95 66 85 / 0 20 40 70 Los Lunas....................... 60 94 65 85 / 0 20 40 70 Placitas........................ 60 90 64 80 / 0 20 40 80 Rio Rancho...................... 61 94 65 84 / 0 20 40 70 Socorro......................... 64 96 68 87 / 0 20 40 80 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 85 58 75 / 0 30 50 80 Tijeras......................... 57 89 60 78 / 0 30 50 80 Edgewood........................ 53 86 57 76 / 0 30 50 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 86 56 77 / 0 30 50 90 Clines Corners.................. 55 79 56 71 / 5 30 60 90 Mountainair..................... 56 85 58 76 / 0 30 50 90 Gran Quivira.................... 56 84 57 77 / 5 40 60 90 Carrizozo....................... 62 85 62 78 / 10 50 60 90 Ruidoso......................... 58 76 56 70 / 20 70 60 90 Capulin......................... 55 75 56 73 / 10 50 40 70 Raton........................... 54 80 55 76 / 5 40 30 70 Springer........................ 56 82 58 78 / 5 40 40 80 Las Vegas....................... 53 80 56 72 / 10 30 60 80 Clayton......................... 63 82 61 79 / 20 50 50 40 Roy............................. 60 79 59 74 / 20 40 60 70 Conchas......................... 66 87 65 81 / 20 40 70 70 Santa Rosa...................... 63 83 62 78 / 20 40 60 80 Tucumcari....................... 67 84 64 82 / 30 50 70 50 Clovis.......................... 67 82 65 83 / 50 60 60 30 Portales........................ 66 83 64 84 / 50 70 60 30 Fort Sumner..................... 66 85 64 82 / 30 60 60 60 Roswell......................... 71 87 69 85 / 40 70 60 50 Picacho......................... 63 83 62 77 / 30 70 60 80 Elk............................. 61 82 59 75 / 30 80 70 90 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Monday morning through Wednesday evening for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42