082 FXUS65 KABQ 262336 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 536 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 523 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - Moderate heat risk will impact the lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico today, then the lower elevations of the Rio Grande Valley westward Sunday. Cooler temperatures are forecast next week. - After a downtick in storm coverage this weekend, monsoon moisture will begin to spread northward over New Mexico again late Sunday into Monday. Then, a monsoon burst will surge into the region Tuesday through Thursday with locally heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding possible, especially around burn scars, urban areas, and poorly drained areas. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Storms lingering over eastern NM this evening will taper off after sunset. Convective outflows may produce erratic wind gusts this evening in Chaves, Roosevelt, and Curry counties given the higher DCAPE values present with the drier air today. Min temps tonight will be similar to the past couple nights with light winds and clearing skies. The easterly wave crossing deep south TX today will be located near Coahuila by Sunday morning while a 595dm H5 high center takes shape over north-central NM. Deepening return flow into eastern NM will allow surface dewpoints to climb back into the upper 50s and low 60s with PWATs rising >1.25" across southeast NM. Moist, southeasterly upslope flow into the Sacramento Mts, mid-level deformation between the approaching easterly wave and upper level high, strong daytime heating, and orographics will allow storms to develop around Ruidoso Sunday afternoon. Storm motions are likely to be toward the north/ northwest off the high terrain. Confidence is too low for a Flood Watch at this time given the storm motion and dependence on storm redevelopment to the south and east of Ruidoso to provide repeat storms. Localized max ensemble QPF from the HREF average 0.25" to 0.50" while probability matched mean values are closer to 0.25" over the high terrain. The NBM only shows 90th percentile values near 0.10". A few storms are also possible farther north and east along the Caprock toward Clovis and Tucumcari and perhaps to the lee of the Sangre de Cristos thru Sunday evening. Max temps will be very warm for central and western NM beneath the strong upper high with moderate heat risk likely. Moisture will then continue deepening to the north and west Sunday night as the easterly wave moves west into southern Chihuahua. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 All of next week looks active for northern, central, and western NM as the monsoon plume becomes established from south to north across the region. This is also the climatologically most active period for the monsoon with the highest daily average dewpoints and Flash Flood Warning products. The aforementioned easterly wave will be absorbed into the broader south-north flow regime between a ridge to the east and a trough along the west coast. Model PWATs rise to near 1.15" at KABQ Tuesday thru Thursday. Storm coverage will increase farther to the north between the Cont Divide and the central mt chain beginning Monday. Some of this activity will be locally heavy with NBM 90th percentiles showing footprints >1.2" between the Gila region and Grants and from the Sandia/Manzanos southward to the Sacramento Mts. A Flood Watch will be more likely Monday for parts of the area, especially burn scars. NBM 90th percentile footprints then increase above 1.5" Tuesday thru Thursday while spreading farther north into the northern mts and northeast NM. Day-to-day variability in storm coverage and intensity will depend on low predictability features like remnant mesoscale convective vortices, outflow boundaries, morning cloud cover, and the eventual placement of the sheared-out inverted trough over the region. The latest WPC 7-day QPF shows a broad area with 0.25 to 0.75" over northern, central, and western NM with locally higher values >2" possible. Eventually, extended guidance shows a 595dm H5 high drifting west from TX toward southern NM late in the week. This may focus the moist instability axis more into northern and western NM by Friday and Saturday. This may also open the door for northwest flow aloft and convectively-aided backdoor cold fronts to impact northeast NM. Temps may also trend hotter for central and southeast NM. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 As expected, showers and thunderstorms have been much more subdued and confined to the south central mountains and southeastern plains of New Mexico today. Much of the activity has already diminished with a few gusty outflow boundaries persisting through the early evening before winds settle more and skies clear after sunset. Moisture will start to increase in southern New Mexico late tonight into Sunday, leading to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon near KSRR, KROW, and KCVN. Storms will be capable of brief downpours and gusty downburst winds. Hot temperatures with many areas reaching the mid 90`s will lead to high density altitude readings suggestive of poor aircraft performance for some. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1236 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Sunday will be another very dry day for the northwest half of NM with slight southwest breezes, above normal temps, and min humidity near 10%. The southeast half of NM will see an increase in storm coverage with potential for small footprints of rainfall >0.25" along with gusty and erratic outflow winds. A substantial moisture surge will move north into the entire state Monday with greater storm coverage along and west of the central mt chain. Rainfall footprints will still be rather small but with amounts >0.50" possible, especially near the high terrain. Tuesday thru Thursday may be the peak coverage days with locally heavy rainfall just about anywhere within northern, central, and western NM. Storm motion will be slow and erratic toward the north/northeast. Friday and Saturday also have potential to be active days for parts of region with very slow storm motions. Total precip amounts of 0.25-0.75" are expected with locally higher amounts >2" by the end of next week in areas that haven`t seen much rainfall this summer. The threat for burn scar flash flooding will remain moderate to high all week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 59 94 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 46 91 47 92 / 0 0 0 20 Cuba............................ 56 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 30 Gallup.......................... 50 91 53 92 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 53 88 56 87 / 0 0 10 30 Grants.......................... 53 92 57 90 / 0 0 5 20 Quemado......................... 56 89 60 88 / 0 5 20 40 Magdalena....................... 62 89 63 86 / 0 10 10 50 Datil........................... 56 87 58 84 / 0 10 10 40 Reserve......................... 54 94 57 92 / 0 10 10 60 Glenwood........................ 59 99 62 95 / 0 10 10 70 Chama........................... 48 85 50 85 / 0 5 0 30 Los Alamos...................... 61 87 62 84 / 0 5 0 50 Pecos........................... 58 87 58 85 / 0 5 5 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 86 56 85 / 0 5 0 40 Red River....................... 47 76 47 75 / 0 10 0 40 Angel Fire...................... 39 79 42 78 / 0 10 0 40 Taos............................ 51 89 55 87 / 0 5 0 30 Mora............................ 52 84 53 82 / 0 10 0 40 Espanola........................ 59 95 61 92 / 0 5 0 30 Santa Fe........................ 62 89 62 86 / 0 5 5 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 92 61 90 / 0 5 0 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 95 70 92 / 0 0 5 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 96 68 93 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 98 67 96 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 96 68 95 / 0 0 5 20 Belen........................... 62 97 65 96 / 0 0 0 20 Bernalillo...................... 64 97 66 95 / 0 0 5 30 Bosque Farms.................... 62 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 20 Corrales........................ 66 97 67 96 / 0 0 5 30 Los Lunas....................... 63 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 65 93 65 91 / 0 0 0 30 Rio Rancho...................... 66 97 67 95 / 0 0 5 20 Socorro......................... 67 98 68 95 / 0 5 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 89 60 86 / 0 0 5 40 Tijeras......................... 63 93 63 90 / 0 0 5 40 Edgewood........................ 56 92 58 89 / 0 5 0 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 92 55 89 / 0 5 0 30 Clines Corners.................. 58 86 58 82 / 0 5 5 30 Mountainair..................... 59 89 58 86 / 0 5 5 40 Gran Quivira.................... 59 88 58 85 / 0 5 10 40 Carrizozo....................... 64 90 63 87 / 0 20 10 40 Ruidoso......................... 59 83 56 79 / 0 30 10 50 Capulin......................... 55 87 57 84 / 5 5 0 10 Raton........................... 53 90 55 88 / 5 5 0 20 Springer........................ 52 92 55 90 / 5 5 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 55 87 55 84 / 0 5 0 30 Clayton......................... 64 94 65 90 / 5 0 5 0 Roy............................. 59 90 60 86 / 5 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 64 97 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 93 63 88 / 0 5 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 65 93 65 89 / 5 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 68 95 67 92 / 10 20 0 0 Portales........................ 68 95 67 93 / 10 20 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 67 95 67 91 / 5 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 71 97 71 93 / 5 20 5 5 Picacho......................... 62 92 62 87 / 5 20 10 20 Elk............................. 60 89 58 85 / 0 30 10 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...52