383
FXUS64 KEPZ 081752
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1052 AM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1050 AM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

 - Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will run near or a little
   below average, then for Wednesday through Friday our high
   temperatures will run a degree or two above average.

 - After Sunday we will be dry through Friday before rain chances
   return to the forecast for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1050 AM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

The upper level trough that brought us rain showers yesterday,
continues to linger south of our area. The low is still close
enough to give us a fair amount of clouds, especially the further
south and east you go. We could even see some rain showers creep
into Hudspeth County later this afternoon, but the rest of the
region will stay dry. Today`s highs will be warmer than Saturday,
but we will still run several degrees below average. By Monday
afternoon the upper level trough will still be moving very slowly
as it lumbers into central Texas. That means the clouds will
continue to linger across the region, especially for locations
east of the Rio Grande. High temperatures on Monday will climb a
few degree higher, but we will still have high temperatures a few
degrees below average for this time of year.

For Tuesday and Wednesday a developing upper level ridge will be
getting itself organized along the west coast. As the ridge
builds to the east we will finally see the clouds banished from
our region and high temperatures will get up back up to seasonal
averages or maybe a degree or two above average. Like the trough,
the upper level ridge will be slow to move across the area so our
sunny skies, light winds and high temperatures near average will
continue through Friday. For next weekend, the extended models
continue to show an upper level trough moving into the southwest
U.S. The EC model is about 12 to 24 hours faster which brings rain
into the region on Saturday, while the slower GFS model brings
the rain in on Sunday. High temperatures both days will run at or
a little below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 AM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

The upper level storm system that brought us the rain yesterday
and some clouds today will be slow to move off so we will continue
to see a fair amount of clouds at KDMN, KLRU and KELP tonight and
into the morning hours of Monday. While we will continue to see
ceilings of around BKN050, I`m not expecting any MVFR ceilings
tonight. Winds at KDMN will stay a little elevated as the east
flow tumbles over the Florida Mountains through this afternoon,
but the rest of the region will have light east or northeast
winds. The clouds will finally clear out of the region but not
until late Monday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 AM MST Sun Nov 8 2026

We will see generally quiet fire weather conditions over the next
5 days. The upper level storm system that brought us rain on
Saturday continues to linger just south of the area. This storm
system will finally move off to our east on Monday and take the
remaining clouds with it. The rest of next week will be sunny and
dry with generally light winds. Another upper level storm system
will approach the region for next weekend and bring with it
another round of rain. Min RH`s today through Tuesday will be
above 30% each afternoon. Then we will see a little drying for
Wednesday through Friday but min RH`s will stay at or above 20%
through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  48  65  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            45  62  46  65 /  30  10   0   0
Las Cruces               42  63  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               42  65  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               30  46  32  48 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    41  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              38  61  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   40  65  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                41  65  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       50  64  50  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                46  66  48  69 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             50  70  50  74 /  10  10  10   0
Loma Linda               44  60  46  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   49  68  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             45  64  45  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           48  65  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            42  65  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    42  68  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 45  64  45  67 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                43  64  45  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  32  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                32  58  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 33  55  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  32  61  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                41  64  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                40  64  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             31  65  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   36  62  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    37  69  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               36  65  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  40  61  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   42  64  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  41  63  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           44  64  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               43  60  43  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice