104
FXUS64 KEPZ 050549
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1149 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1147 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

 - Temperatures climb through Sunday before decreasing some early
   next week, then back up mid to late next week

 - Moisture slowly recovers on Sunday, bringing isolated to
   scattered thunderstorm chances, especially west

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1029 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The drying trend will become very apparent as an upper trough over
eastern AZ sweeps through overnight tonight, cutting off our
monsoonal moisture supply. PWATs are expected to decrease
significantly, leading to lower Tds and reduced instability. As
the upper high establishes itself over NM, thunderstorm chances
will become very limited, mainly confined to the mountains. A
backdoor front sliding down the eastern plains will help to
invigorate lift with moist upslope flow, allowing isolated
afternoon storms to initiate over the south central mts. 500mb
temps remain relatively warm, however, hovering around -5C. Storms
will struggle in this environment and what ones do develop will
likely remain weak and short-lived. With clear skies and very
warm 850mb temperatures, much of the lowlands can expect to see
triple-digit highs. Expect highs in El Paso to reach around 100F
to 102F.

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern on
Sunday, resulting in another hot and dry day. Thunderstorm chances
will remain very low, primarily favoring to the higher elevations
of the Sacramento Mts once again. Temperatures will be similar to
Saturday, with widespread triple-digit heat for the El Paso metro
and surrounding lowlands, potentially reaching up to 102F in some
areas.

The upper high will drift slightly towards the AZ/NM border on
Monday. This subtle shift may allow for a very slight increase in
mid-level moisture, primarily from the east/northeast. While not
leading to widespread storm coverage, isolated afternoon
thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out, particularly over the
mountains and possibly some eastern parts of the CWA. Temperatures
will remain well above normal, generally in the upper 90s to low
100s for the lowlands. As the high continues to slowly weaken and
shift, mid-level easterly to northeasterly flow will persist,
potentially bringing in a bit more moisture. This pattern, while not
ideal for extensive monsoon activity, could support isolated to
scattered thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will
begin to moderate slightly but will still be very warm.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Light and vrb winds overnight giving way to typical aftn breezes
aft 05/18Z with gusts generally under 20 kts. A backdoor cold
front will force winds more nly to ely at KELP and KTCS. Isold
tstms in the aftn will stay lcl to the high terrain of the south
centrl mts. Aftn gusts will diminish aft sunset, becoming light
and vrb.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Warming temperatures and lower dew points will lead to a decrease
in min RH values, with much of the lowlands falling below 15% for
tomorrow and Sunday afternoon. Rain/storm chances will all but disappear
except across the Bootheel. Winds will remain light, however, topping
out around 10 MPH. As we go into Sunday, moisture begins to increase
again leading to scattered mountain and isolated to scattered
lowland storms. Rain/storm chances will favor areas west of the Divide.

Vent categories will range fair to very good each afternoon,
largely limited by weak transport winds courtesy of high pressure
aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 102  76 101 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            67  94  68  92 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces               68  99  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               67 100  69  97 /   0   0  10  30
Cloudcroft               52  79  52  74 /   0  20  20  60
Truth or Consequences    70  97  70  98 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City              61  91  64  92 /   0  10  10  30
Deming                   68 100  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                66  96  68 100 /   0  10  10  20
West El Paso Metro       73 100  75 100 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                68 100  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             72 102  73 100 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               67  94  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   71 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             71  99  72  99 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           74 100  75 100 /   0   0   0  20
Jornada Range            66  99  68  99 /   0   0   0  20
Hatch                    67 101  68 102 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 74  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                67  98  70  97 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                  59  88  57  84 /   0  20  20  50
Mescalero                57  89  58  85 /   0  20  20  50
Timberon                 56  86  57  82 /   0  20  20  40
Winston                  57  89  58  89 /   0  10  10  30
Hillsboro                64  97  66  97 /   0  10  10  20
Spaceport                64  97  66  98 /   0   0   0  20
Lake Roberts             56  92  59  93 /   0  10  10  40
Hurley                   63  94  64  95 /   0  10  10  20
Cliff                    62  97  65 100 /   0  10  10  20
Mule Creek               60  93  63  95 /   0  10  10  20
Faywood                  65  93  66  95 /   0  10   0  20
Animas                   66  96  68  98 /  10  10  10  20
Hachita                  66  95  68  98 /  10  10  10  10
Antelope Wells           65  95  68  97 /  30  20  20  20
Cloverdale               63  90  66  93 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird