475 FXUS65 KABQ 020813 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 213 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 105 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Numerous to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms move across northern and central NM today. While mostly beneficial, heavy rainfall will reach up to an inch or more in localized spots threaten flash flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas, and recent burn scars. - Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms continue Tuesday and Wednesday. This activity shifts focus more solely to eastern NM Thursday, Friday, and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 he upper low that has been stalled off the southern CA and Baja CA coast has progressed eastward the last 12 to 18 hours and is currently moving across Arizona this morning. With well above average available moisture in place, a shield of widespread showers and storms is being observed ahead of the upper low circulation and moving into western NM along with some isolated showers across parts of central and southern NM. This shield of precip will move across the western 2/3rds of the state this morning into the early afternoon bringing much needed precipitation to these areas through much of the day. Eastern NM will remain dry this morning, but daytime heating and instability combining with increasing lift ahead of the opening up low moving into the state will allow for the development of scattered to numerous showers. Some of these storms could become strong to severe across east central and southeast areas with a low risk for large hail in discrete cells transitioning to low risk for damaging wind gusts as storms grow upscale. Looking at the threat for burn scar flash flooding, fast storms motion and lower rainfall rates will help to limit the threat. However, hi res model guidance and the HREF does show a risk for training storms during the afternoon to early evening across the HPCC burn scar. Locally heavy rainfall amounts of around 0.5 to 0.75 inches are possible during this time and with the above normal rainfall this past week of so decided to go ahead and issue a Flood Watch for the HPCC burn scar. Guidance has lesser rainfall amounts of 0.2 to 0.4 inches across the burn scars surrounding Ruidoso, and with the fast storm motion decided to not issue a Flood Watch for this zone. With the higher shower and storm activity, temperatures will be much cooler than yesterday and 10 to 15 degrees below average across western and central NM, but near normal across the eastern plains due to downsloping southwest winds and a later development of shower and storm activity. Showers and thunderstorm coverage slowly tapers off and exits east during the late evening with the loss of daytime heating, but showers and storms could continue to around midnight across north central NM as the trough axis gradually moves east over the southern High Plains. Meanwhile, a enhancement in shower and thunderstorm activity is depicted across far northeast NM early to mid Tuesday morning due to lift from a backdoor front on the backside of the exiting trough axis. This shower and thunderstorm exits east into the OK/TX panhandles late Tuesday morning as cooler and more stable air settles in under the surface high building south across the High Plains. The backdoor front (enhanced by the convection across the Great Plains) pushes trough the rest of eastern NM during the day Tuesday with much cooler temperatures in the 60s to mid 70s across northeast and east central NM. Surface convergence along the leading edge of the backdoor front combined with daytime heating will result in the development of showers and storms across the northern mountains (especially the Sangre de Cristo Mountains) Tuesday afternoon. Additionally, shower and storm development is expected across the western mountains due to increasing lift ahead of a 2nd upper low off the coast of Southern CA. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 The backdoor front will push west through the central mountain chain and result in gusty east canyon winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys, but speeds are forecast to remain below advisory criteria at this time. The front will provide sufficient forcing for continued rounds of showers and storms Tuesday night in advance of a 2nd Pacific low, now forecast to take a more northerly track from SoCal to northern AZ Wednesday night. This track will lead to lower chances for precipitation across our area in general, but especially across southern areas. 0-6km bulk shear will be on the uptrend Wednesday and may be sufficient for a few severe storms across northern NM. Daytime temperatures will remain below average most areas through at least Thursday. Drier westerly flow aloft toward the end of the week and into the weekend will scour our low level moisture across western NM, but sufficient low level moisture will hold on near the CO border and across far eastern NM for daily rounds of storms. Temperatures will trend up toward the end of the week and into the weekend, reaching back to above average most areas by Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 958 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Moisture increasing ahead of an approaching Pacific low will result in the development and gradual lowering of VFR cigs, along with an increase in coverage and intensity of showers and storms through Monday afternoon. The highest probabilities for thunderstorm impacts will be across central and eastern NM Monday. Thunderstorm hazards include gusts to between 35-45kts and small hail. Thunderstorm enhanced winds will likely kick up dust at KROW Monday afternoon, but kept MVFR conditions for now although IFR conditions are possible. Generally, short-lived MVFR conditions can be expected with storms Monday. Areas of mountain obscurations will develop mid to late Monday morning with showers and storms on the uptrend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 105 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Well above average moisture combining with a opening up upper low moving across the state will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms areawide and much cooler temperatures across western and central areas. Showers and storms taper off for most (outside of far northeast areas) Monday night as the system exits east. More shower and storm activity favoring the northern and western mountains Tuesday afternoon spreading into lower elevations across western and central areas Tuesday night as another upper low approaches the state. Much cooler across eastern areas behind a backdoor front on Tuesday. Showers and storms favor areas along and north of Interstate 40 on Wednesday as the low opens up as it moves towards the Four Corners region before shifting to eastern to areas Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the system moves across the central Rockies. Hotter temperatures with drier air moving back into western and central NM late in the week as high pressure over Mexico strengthens and builds north. Higher moisture and low shower and storm chances hold on across far eastern areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 75 54 82 55 / 60 40 20 40 Dulce........................... 71 45 79 44 / 80 60 40 40 Cuba............................ 70 49 77 48 / 80 60 30 50 Gallup.......................... 69 47 79 46 / 70 50 30 30 El Morro........................ 66 50 76 49 / 80 40 30 40 Grants.......................... 70 49 80 48 / 70 30 20 40 Quemado......................... 69 50 78 50 / 70 20 10 50 Magdalena....................... 71 53 78 54 / 80 20 20 60 Datil........................... 68 50 78 51 / 80 10 20 40 Reserve......................... 73 45 82 48 / 70 10 30 40 Glenwood........................ 75 50 84 53 / 70 5 10 10 Chama........................... 66 43 72 42 / 80 60 50 50 Los Alamos...................... 73 52 72 52 / 80 50 50 50 Pecos........................... 73 50 67 48 / 70 30 70 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 71 48 69 47 / 70 50 70 40 Red River....................... 62 42 58 40 / 80 50 70 50 Angel Fire...................... 68 42 62 40 / 70 40 70 50 Taos............................ 74 47 72 46 / 70 50 60 40 Mora............................ 72 47 60 43 / 80 30 70 50 Espanola........................ 78 53 79 53 / 70 40 50 50 Santa Fe........................ 74 52 73 51 / 80 40 60 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 76 52 78 51 / 70 40 40 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 74 58 82 57 / 70 40 20 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 75 57 82 57 / 70 30 20 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 76 57 85 57 / 70 30 20 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 76 58 84 58 / 70 40 20 50 Belen........................... 79 56 87 56 / 70 30 10 50 Bernalillo...................... 78 57 85 56 / 70 40 20 50 Bosque Farms.................... 77 55 85 55 / 70 30 10 50 Corrales........................ 76 57 85 57 / 70 40 20 50 Los Lunas....................... 77 56 86 56 / 70 30 10 50 Placitas........................ 76 57 83 56 / 70 40 20 50 Rio Rancho...................... 76 57 84 57 / 70 40 20 50 Socorro......................... 80 59 87 59 / 70 20 10 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 51 78 50 / 70 40 20 60 Tijeras......................... 73 52 79 51 / 70 40 20 60 Edgewood........................ 75 51 76 48 / 60 30 30 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 77 48 77 46 / 60 30 30 60 Clines Corners.................. 71 49 70 45 / 70 20 40 40 Mountainair..................... 75 51 78 48 / 80 30 20 60 Gran Quivira.................... 75 51 78 48 / 70 30 20 50 Carrizozo....................... 78 56 82 56 / 60 20 10 30 Ruidoso......................... 71 53 74 50 / 60 20 20 20 Capulin......................... 79 46 54 42 / 30 50 60 20 Raton........................... 80 50 64 45 / 50 50 40 40 Springer........................ 83 52 66 46 / 40 30 30 30 Las Vegas....................... 75 50 65 45 / 70 30 60 40 Clayton......................... 87 53 60 46 / 20 30 40 20 Roy............................. 80 53 66 46 / 20 30 20 30 Conchas......................... 87 59 72 51 / 40 30 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 84 58 72 50 / 60 30 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 88 60 72 50 / 40 40 10 30 Clovis.......................... 85 60 74 51 / 50 60 10 20 Portales........................ 88 60 78 50 / 50 60 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 87 58 78 51 / 60 30 10 30 Roswell......................... 92 64 90 59 / 40 20 0 10 Picacho......................... 83 57 83 53 / 60 20 20 10 Elk............................. 81 54 82 50 / 60 20 20 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214- 215-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11