848
FXUS64 KEPZ 090438
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1038 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
- Dry and hot weather pattern will only slowly loosen its drip
heading into the weekend, with triple digit lowland high
temperatures continuing. Heat Advisories remain in effect for
Luna County as well as El Paso and the Lower Valley through
Saturday.
- Thunderstorm chances will increase on Saturday, with gusty
winds and blowing dust possible as they move from the mountains
in to the lowlands, where moisture will have only increased
moderately.
- Thunderstorms with better rain chances arrive Sunday and
Monday as upper level disturbances take advantage of recycled
moisture over the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
UL high pressure remains centered over Southern and Central NM
this evening. It has weakened a little from a 600 dm high to a 596
dm H500 high. The 00z EPZ sounding recorded 595 dm at 500 mb. The
evening sounding also showed 0.52" of PW, which is a new record
low for 00z August 9. The lack of moisture and warm, subsidence aloft
has left the CWA precip/storm free. The high continues to weaken
into Saturday while moisture advects from the south and southwest.
Rain and storm temperatures will return as a result, favoring
western areas. In spite of the subtle height falls with the
weakening H500 high, both the GFS and Euro show about a half
degree C of warming at H850, so temperatures will be similar to
what was seen today if not a degree warmer. Deming hit 105, so I
elected to add Luna County to the heat advisory. The one thing
that may spoil the high forecast is the increase in moisture and
subsequent increase in cloud coverage. Additionally the HRRR shows
isolated storms in the afternoon, which would further limit
highs. The HRRR then shows coverage becoming scattered in the
evening, even lasting into the overnight hours. Although moisture
will increase, the lower levels will still be quite dry, so gusty
winds and blowing dust will be the main hazard with storms.
By Sunday, we quickly replace high pressure aloft with a broad
trough covering roughly the middle third of the CONUS thanks to a
low over Canada. Continued height falls and continued moisture
advection will further increase rain and thunderstorm chances for
Sunday. Highs will also decrease by several degrees. The trough
nudges eastward for Monday while the UL high reforms over CA,
bringing northerly flow aloft to the CWA. Moisture is not
particularly robust on Monday (PW values near 1"), but weak
disturbances moving through the northerly flow will help foster
storm chances.
We maintain northerly flow through Tuesday before a Pacific
trough begins pushing the UL ridge back east toward our area,
reaching us by Thursday. It will be a relatively weak high (~591
dm at H500) with moisture remaining in place, so storm/ rain
chances will decrease but not disappear completely. The UL ridge
will continue to translate east later next week, potentially
setting up a more healthy monsoonal pattern and subsequent flash
flooding/ heavy rain threat. Temperatures will hover within a few
degrees of normal, plus and minus, for much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
VFR conditions are expected with SKC-FEW120/250. Winds will
continue to be light and variable, favoring the S or SE,
especially late in the period. A few gusts to 20 knots will occur
after 18z.
ISO to SCT TSRA/SHRA will develop initially in the mountains
around 18z before moving into the lowlands toward 0z. There are
some indication SHRA/TSRA will last into the night. For now,
probability of occurrence is AOB 30% nor is there much confidence
on timing. Gusty outflow winds and BLDU/HZ will be the main
concerns with any thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
Expect another round of scattered, weak convection over the higher
terrain this afternoon, with a risk of dry lightning strikes and
gusty winds amid lower RH values (10-15%). Thunderstorm coverage
looks to increase on Saturday, with only a modest increase in
moisture. This will increase the risk of dry lightning strikes and
gusty outflow winds across the area, including into the lowlands.
Moisture will slowly begin to increase Sunday onwards, with better
chances for thunderstorms with wetting rainfall, and improved
overnight RH recovery. The most active days look to be Sunday and
Monday as cooler air aloft and and upper level shortwave trough
help enhance thunderstorm coverage and organization.
Towards the weekend, a more typical monsoon moisture plume looks
to set up, but it looks to favor areas west of the Divide and
perhaps more into SE Arizona.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 76 105 78 101 / 0 0 20 20
Sierra Blanca 67 98 69 97 / 0 10 20 20
Las Cruces 70 101 71 97 / 0 10 30 20
Alamogordo 73 100 71 97 / 0 10 20 20
Cloudcroft 56 77 56 74 / 0 20 20 50
Truth or Consequences 74 100 72 97 / 10 10 20 30
Silver City 67 96 64 91 / 20 40 40 70
Deming 70 105 71 100 / 10 10 30 30
Lordsburg 69 102 68 97 / 10 20 40 40
West El Paso Metro 75 101 77 98 / 0 0 20 20
Dell City 69 102 71 99 / 0 10 20 20
Fort Hancock 74 103 74 100 / 0 10 20 20
Loma Linda 70 95 71 92 / 0 10 20 20
Fabens 72 102 74 99 / 0 10 20 10
Santa Teresa 72 101 74 97 / 0 0 30 20
White Sands HQ 74 102 75 99 / 0 10 30 30
Jornada Range 71 100 71 97 / 0 10 30 30
Hatch 71 103 71 99 / 10 10 30 40
Columbus 73 104 74 99 / 0 10 30 20
Orogrande 70 99 72 96 / 0 10 20 20
Mayhill 62 89 61 85 / 0 30 20 60
Mescalero 61 89 61 86 / 0 20 20 50
Timberon 59 86 58 83 / 0 10 20 40
Winston 63 94 60 89 / 20 30 30 70
Hillsboro 69 101 67 96 / 10 20 30 50
Spaceport 70 100 69 97 / 10 10 30 40
Lake Roberts 61 95 59 91 / 20 50 40 80
Hurley 67 98 65 93 / 10 30 30 60
Cliff 68 103 65 98 / 20 40 30 60
Mule Creek 67 99 63 94 / 10 30 30 50
Faywood 69 98 67 93 / 10 30 30 60
Animas 69 101 69 97 / 10 20 40 50
Hachita 69 101 69 97 / 10 20 30 40
Antelope Wells 68 100 68 96 / 10 20 40 50
Cloverdale 64 95 64 90 / 20 30 50 60
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Saturday for Eastern/Central El
Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
County-Western El Paso County.
NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Saturday for Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown