494
FXUS64 KEPZ 170545
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1145 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures through Thursday. Record temperature
today likely to be broken. Temperatures just a few degrees
below normal this weekend.
- Very dry conditions through much of the work week, low end
rain/snow chances in the mountains this weekend. Low end rain
chances west of the Divide on Saturday.
- Winds will be breezy to windy each afternoon, with very windy
conditions and blowing dust concerns on Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Clear skies with patchy blowing dust have developed across
southern and southwestern NM this afternoon. Will continue to
monitor for the need of any Blowing Dust Advisories and/or Dust
Storm Warnings through this evening.
The pattern will continue to be active through this weekend.
Southwest flow aloft will increase today through Friday. This will
be in response to an upper level low off the southern coast of
California initially moving slowly east before merging with a fast
moving upper low from the Great Basin area by Thursday night. The
merged upper trough will then make its way through New Mexico
from Friday through Saturday. In response to the approach of this
system, a strong surface low is expected to develop in eastern CO
and western KS tomorrow. The increased surface pressure gradient
combined with good mixing into the mid levels will allow for winds
to increase into the 25 to 35 mph range, with gusts over 50 mph
for the lowland areas, and as high as 30 to 40 mph, with gusts
approaching 65 mph for the higher terrain areas of the Black/Gila,
and San Andres/Sacramento ranges. Thus, the Wind Advisories and
High Wind Warnings already issued for tomorrow will remain in
place. In addition to the winds, we will also have widespread
blowing dust, so the Blowing Dust Advisory will be maintained as
well. Some of the visibilities with the dust could be reduced to
less than a half mile at times, so Dust Storm Warnings may be
needed. In addition to the windy conditions, we will see a cooling
trend in temperatures through the end of the week as the upper
trough and lower heights approach.
Although there won`t be as strong of a surface pressure gradient
to work with on Friday, ample mixing will allow for another windy
day across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Southwest winds
in the 25 to 35 mph range with higher gusts are expected,
resulting in another round of blowing dust as well, with Blowing
Dust Advisories possibly needed Friday as well.
As the upper trough makes its way through the area Friday night
into Saturday, there will be a chance for precipitation, mainly
for the northern half of the area. There will even be a chance for
some mixed phases of precipitation in the highest elevations
where some sleet and/or snow could mix in with any rain that does
develop. The most likely timeframe for any precipitation will be
during the day Saturday. Temperatures will also be significantly
cooler Saturday with highs ranging from around 40 in the highest
elevations to the mid/upper 70s along the Rio Grande in Texas.
Following the passage of the upper level trough, zonal flow or
weak ridging is expected to develop aloft over the region. This is
expected to yield generally quieter weather, with winds in the 10
to 20 mph range, and a warming trend in temperatures. Highs by
the middle of next week should range from the mid 60s in the
higher elevations to upper 80s along the Rio Grande in Texas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025
VFR conditions through the overnight and early morning hours.
All but KEPZ will see diminished winds from the SW to W in the
8-12kt range through the night. At KEPZ, mountain waves will keep
winds variable, erratic, and periodically elevated with periods of
winds 20+ knots, with gusts 30+ knots. Skies will remain SKC, with
some possible FEW250 skirting by to the S and SE.
For tomorrow, expect SW winds to increase btwn 15-16Z, becoming
20G30 knots soon afterward. An Airport Weather Warning is in place
for KEPZ for tomorrow. By 18Z, lasting through at least 03Z, winds
will increase and become 30-35 knots with gusts 40-50 knots. Broad
areas of blowing dust, with embedded dense plumes will make for
widespread reductions in VSBY, with KDMN, KLRU, and KELP expected
to intermittently drop below 1SM btwn 20Z through 03Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Low Min RH values and windy conditions will continue to produce
critical to extreme fire weather conditions for areas west of the
Rio Grande, with elevated conditions elsewhere. The Red Flag
Warning will remain in effect through 8 pm for portions of
southwestern New Mexico. For Thursday, the Pacific storm system
mentioned above will bring critical to extreme fire weather
conditions areawide with southwest winds of 30 to 40 mph in the
lowlands and mountains with gusts to 65 mph in the mountains and
gusts up to 55 mph in the lowlands. The combination of Min RH
values at or below critical thresholds, windy to very windy
conditions, and very dry fuels will bring high end Red Flag
Warning conditions to the Borderland.
For Friday, a trough over the Great Basin will merge with the
system on Friday allowing for southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with
gusts to 40 mph leading to critical to extreme fire weather
conditions across the Borderland likely requiring additional fire
weather headlines on Friday.
Cooler temperatures, and the potential for precipitation Saturday
will bring some temporary relief to fire weather concerns to the
area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 64 90 62 81 / 0 10 0 10
Sierra Blanca 56 86 60 80 / 0 10 10 10
Las Cruces 52 85 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 56 86 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 45 62 38 53 / 0 10 0 10
Truth or Consequences 53 83 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 47 75 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 52 86 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 49 82 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 63 88 60 78 / 0 10 0 10
Dell City 55 89 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 59 94 62 86 / 0 10 10 10
Loma Linda 58 82 56 74 / 0 10 0 10
Fabens 59 91 60 83 / 0 10 0 10
Santa Teresa 58 86 55 77 / 0 10 0 10
White Sands HQ 63 87 59 77 / 0 10 0 10
Jornada Range 54 85 51 76 / 0 10 0 10
Hatch 56 87 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 57 87 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 56 85 54 76 / 0 10 0 10
Mayhill 52 75 46 65 / 0 0 0 10
Mescalero 49 73 42 63 / 0 10 0 10
Timberon 45 72 40 63 / 0 0 0 10
Winston 42 73 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 51 81 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 51 84 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 45 74 37 63 / 0 0 0 10
Hurley 45 79 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 43 81 39 71 / 0 0 0 10
Mule Creek 46 74 37 65 / 0 0 0 10
Faywood 49 79 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 53 84 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 53 83 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 54 82 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 51 77 46 68 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for Texas Fire
Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone
056 Hudspeth County.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Eastern/Central
El Paso County-Western El Paso County.
Blowing Dust Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Western El Paso County.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire
Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for Capitan and
Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands
and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts
and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila
NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
High Wind Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for East
Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black
Range Foothills-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra
County Lakes-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-
Uplands of the Bootheel-West Central Tularosa Basin/White
Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana
County-Otero Mesa-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona
Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley.
Blowing Dust Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for East
Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern
Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila
River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
Bootheel-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South
Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...14-Bird