022 FXUS65 KABQ 210829 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 229 AM MDT Sat Jun 21 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 227 AM MDT Sat Jun 21 2025 - Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid fire spread in portions of western and central New Mexico today due to breezy southwest winds and very low humidity. - Precipitation chances increase Sunday and remain high through next week across most of the region. This will increase the threat of flash flooding both on and off recent burn scars. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 227 AM MDT Sat Jun 21 2025 An upper level low centered over the PacNW will continue to dive southward today, increasing south to southwest winds across much of NM. In general, winds will be similar to or slightly stronger than yesterday across the area, with gusts up to 45 mph common. However, some areas could briefly be stronger. The southwesterly winds will bring in very dry air to western NM, with several hours of humidity readings in the single digits expected. Meanwhile, southerly flow over eastern NM will begin to draw up mid level moisture. A low level surface moisture gradient combined with modest lift from the slowly approaching low/trough will allow isolated to scattered storms to develop across east central and southeast NM this afternoon and evening. Enough instability and shear will be present for storms to briefly become strong or severe with damaging winds the main concern though small hail is also possible. These storms should diminish by midnight. While southwesterly winds along and west of the Rio Grande Valley will decrease overnight, strong southerly winds will persist across eastern NM. Gusts near 40-45 mph will continue until well after midnight. The upper level low/trough will continue to dive southward over CA/NV on Sunday. Monsoon moisture will increase mainly across eastern NM with strong southerly flow continuing. Meanwhile, very dry air will persist across western NM with southwesterly flow. Once again, ascent ahead of the trough and abundant moisture will allow storms to develop along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Considered a Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area burn scars Sunday afternoon, but most high resolution models show the drier southwesterly flow reaching Ruidoso, then strong surface convergence across eastern Lincoln County, and this latter area is where storms and precipitation would be favored. It`s not out of the question Ruidoso will receive rainfall, especially if the moist thunderstorm outflow from eastern Lincoln Co. backs into Ruidoso, but confidence was not high enough at this time that heavy rainfall will occur over the burn scars. Meanwhile, much of the eastern plains will receive precipitation. Once again, a few strong or severe storms will be possible across eastern NM during the afternoon and early evening Sunday. Damaging winds will be favored, but hail will also be possible. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 227 AM MDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Remnant showers and thunderstorms may continue into the early overnight hours of Sunday into Monday across east-central and southeast NM associated with Sunday`s initial monsoon burst. The monsoon moisture and associated rainfall begins to pick up substantially across much of the state on Monday. Sufficient surface heating should lead to widespread development of thunderstorms across central and eastern NM through the afternoon and evening hours. Some stronger to severe storms may reside amongst the group, given modest instability and forcing from an upper level trough to our west. Forecast soundings show surface inverted-V layers with DCAPE values nearing 1000 J/kg, so gusty to severe level outflow winds are likely to be the main threat with any stronger storm. Additionally, PWAT values rise well above normal, likely reaching 95th percentile by Monday afternoon, only to increase even further Tuesday. Given this, efficient rainfall rates are likely from any mature storm and a flash flooding risk is becoming increasingly likely. Showers and storms are likely to continue throughout Monday night, as most models have consistently been showing. This may put a hamper on the rainfall rates and amounts for Tuesday, given widespread cloud cover and lack of sufficient surface heating. However, confidence is not high on this, as model QPF outputs have been fairly consistent in Tuesday being the rainiest day. This is likely due to the potential for pulses of vorticity moving across the state during the day on Tuesday, combating that cloud cover and lack of surface heating. So, while confidence in the flash flooding threat is slightly lower for Tuesday, there still remains a heightened risk. Moisture remains, but slowly decreases, across the state Wednesday and Thursday, with storm motions slowing as the upper level pattern becomes calmer. This could continue the flash flooding threat through the latter half of the week, especially for areas having received significant rainfall the days beforehand. QPF amounts across the state are very likely to range in the 0.75- 1.25" across a majority of central and eastern NM, with slightly lower values in western NM Monday through Wednesday. NBM 90th percentile rainfall covers roughly 60% of the forecast area in 2" or greater of rainfall, with the central highlands continuing to be a hotspot for the potential of 3"+. All said and done, our first surge of monsoon moisture is very likely to bring heavy rainfall across the forecast area, and the flash flooding risk, both on and off burn scars, is likely to increase especially Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 PM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Gusty south winds will persist overnight, especially across eastern NM where gusts between 22 and 32kt will persist. South to southwest winds will increase areawide by early afternoon on Saturday, with gusts similar to that of yesterday - 30 to 40kt with locally higher gusts. A few showers and thunderstorms will develop across the east central and southeast plains of NM Saturday afternoon. A brief strong or severe storm is not out of the question with hail and damaging wind gusts. These storms should diminish by midnight. Similarly to tonight, southerly winds Saturday night will stay elevated across eastern NM while decoupling elsewhere. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 AM MDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Critical fire weather conditions remain on tap for today across much of western NM as well as the Upper Rio Grande and Lower Chama River Valleys. Elsewhere, elevated to near-critical conditions are expected due to strong south to southwest winds again today. Overall, winds will be similar to yesterday, but may be a touch higher in spots. Gusts up to 45 mph will be common. Several hours of single digit RH is still expected for most lower elevation locales (<7500ft) west of the Rio Grande Valley. Minimum RH values between 10 and 15 percent are likely from the Rio Grande Valley to the east slopes of the Central Mtn Chain. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be favored across east central areas today, then much of eastern NM on Sunday. Thereafter, a substantial monsoon plume of moisture will set up across NM for Monday through at least Wednesday. Widespread precipitation, cooler temperatures and higher humidities are expected. Precipitation will still favor central and eastern NM on Monday before spreading westward on Tuesday. Areas of flooding will be possible, especially over and downstream of burn scars. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 93 57 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 88 47 83 40 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 89 54 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 89 49 85 43 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 86 50 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 91 50 88 46 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 87 52 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 91 61 88 57 / 0 0 5 0 Datil........................... 87 54 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 90 49 88 46 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 93 54 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 81 45 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 87 62 83 57 / 0 0 5 5 Pecos........................... 87 57 83 53 / 0 5 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 53 81 50 / 0 0 5 0 Red River....................... 75 46 71 43 / 0 0 5 5 Angel Fire...................... 79 44 76 37 / 0 0 5 5 Taos............................ 89 52 85 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 83 51 80 47 / 0 5 10 10 Espanola........................ 94 58 91 53 / 0 0 5 5 Santa Fe........................ 89 60 86 56 / 0 5 5 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 93 59 89 54 / 0 5 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 95 67 92 64 / 0 5 5 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 98 68 94 62 / 0 5 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 99 65 96 60 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 98 66 95 61 / 0 5 0 0 Belen........................... 99 63 96 58 / 0 5 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 98 65 95 60 / 0 5 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 98 63 95 57 / 0 5 5 0 Corrales........................ 99 66 96 60 / 0 5 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 99 64 96 58 / 0 5 0 0 Placitas........................ 94 65 91 62 / 0 5 5 5 Rio Rancho...................... 97 66 94 60 / 0 5 5 0 Socorro......................... 101 67 98 63 / 0 0 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 89 59 86 55 / 0 5 5 5 Tijeras......................... 91 62 88 57 / 0 5 5 5 Edgewood........................ 91 58 87 52 / 0 5 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 91 56 88 49 / 0 5 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 87 58 82 54 / 5 5 20 10 Mountainair..................... 91 59 87 55 / 0 5 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 90 59 87 55 / 0 5 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 94 67 89 61 / 5 10 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 86 61 79 57 / 20 10 50 30 Capulin......................... 89 56 82 54 / 0 0 20 10 Raton........................... 93 56 88 52 / 0 0 10 10 Springer........................ 93 57 88 54 / 0 5 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 90 56 83 52 / 0 5 30 20 Clayton......................... 96 65 90 62 / 0 5 20 20 Roy............................. 91 61 86 58 / 5 5 30 20 Conchas......................... 98 67 94 65 / 10 10 40 30 Santa Rosa...................... 95 65 90 62 / 10 10 50 30 Tucumcari....................... 97 67 92 65 / 10 10 30 30 Clovis.......................... 96 66 90 66 / 20 30 30 40 Portales........................ 97 65 91 66 / 20 30 30 40 Fort Sumner..................... 98 67 92 65 / 20 20 60 30 Roswell......................... 102 72 94 70 / 20 20 40 30 Picacho......................... 95 64 90 61 / 20 10 70 30 Elk............................. 93 62 88 58 / 20 20 70 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-109-121. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...34