690 FXUS64 KEPZ 271208 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 608 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 542 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025 - Moisture increases through Tuesday with the most widespread thunderstorm activity being Monday and Tuesday. - The flash flooding threat returns Monday and Tuesday, favoring western areas, as a monsoonal plume sets up. - After a cool down earlier in the week, temperatures rebound by next weekend as storm chances diminish. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 An inverted trough currently south of the Big Bend will continue its trek westward across northern Mexico over the next several days around the upper high over the Southeast. Our winds shift southeasterly tonight in advance of the trough with moisture beginning to increase. Dew points reach the 50s by the morning for most areas, mixing out into the 40s during the afternoon, producing enough moisture and instability to spark isolated to scattered convection. Strong outflow gusts to 50 mph and blowing dust are concerns Sun afternoon due to dew point depressions near 50 degrees and inverted-V forecast soundings. Heavy downpours and localized flash flooding may accompany these storms with rain rates of up to 2" per hour according to the RRFS as deeper moisture filters in. Most of the activity dissipates around sunset, but a few showers could linger into the overnight as PWs approach 1.25" (for comparison, normal is around 1.1"). Monday and Tuesday still look like the most active days of the period with PWs peaking close to 1.5" Monday night at KELP. As has been seen so far this monsoon season with these moisture surges, the Euro ensemble is more bullish on PWs than the GEFS early next week (GEFS peaks 1.3-1.4"; EPS peaks 1.5"). The EPS has performed better than the GEFS with its PW forecast. Meanwhile, the RRFS is now within range and has been consistently showing PWs close to 1.7" (record levels) Monday night/Tue AM as the inverted trough pushes through Chihuahua. Regardless of just how much moisture we get, western areas and the higher terrain are more favored to see heavy rainfall Mon/Tue. Scattered to numerous storms are expected mainly west of the RGV Monday PM with rain rates of 2-3" according to the RRFS and a low- medium risk of flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars and other sensitive areas like Vado. Tuesday will see lower storm coverage east of the RGV as the upper high drifts into the Southern Plains, nudging the moisture plume towards eastern AZ. The high will continue to push westward for the second half of the week, eventually sitting over the Southern Rockies by next weekend. The threat of flash flooding out west diminishes through midweek while the high and its drier air gain influence. Storm chances continue to lower for eastern areas as the best moisture is confined to northern and western areas later in the week. The exact location of the high will be crucial in determining storm chances and how much recycled moisture we`ll have to work with. Temperatures stay warm for Sunday, then cooling to slightly below normal into midweek due to more cloud cover. Temps rebound later in the week as high pressure moves overhead and the deeper moisture is flushed out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Increasing low level moisture will lead to thunderstorm development this afternoon. Models favor afternoon convection initiation across the Sacramento Mountains as well as the along the Rio Grande, on the leading edge of deeper moisture. A vort lobe drifting east ahead of an inverted trough moving into eastern Chihuahua also appears to be a triggering mechanism. Added PROB30s for TSRA at LRU and ELP after 20-21Z, and mentioned wind gusts 30-35 knots given high DCAPE values (despite the relative increase in low level moisture). VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere, though convection will try to push west towards DMN in the evening, but will be entering a less favorable environment. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 542 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Low level moisture will begin pushing back into the area from the southeast today, though min RH values will remain 15 percent or less west of the Continental Divide. Scattered thunderstorms will mainly be focused along the Rio Grande and the Sacramento Mountains, diminishing as they attempt to push west in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds will accompany thunderstorms. Increasing moisture will overspread the area Monday, with an uptick in thunderstorm coverage, especially in the higher terrain, but spreading into the lowlands in the evening. Monsoonal moisture will prefer areas west of the Rio Grande Tuesday and Wednesday, and drier air may push towards the Continental Divide later in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 99 76 95 73 / 40 30 30 50 Sierra Blanca 92 68 89 67 / 10 10 50 40 Las Cruces 97 70 91 68 / 40 40 30 60 Alamogordo 94 68 91 68 / 40 20 30 40 Cloudcroft 72 49 69 50 / 40 10 60 30 Truth or Consequences 96 70 91 68 / 20 20 30 50 Silver City 92 64 87 62 / 20 20 70 60 Deming 100 72 95 69 / 20 30 30 60 Lordsburg 99 71 94 68 / 10 20 50 60 West El Paso Metro 97 75 93 72 / 40 30 30 50 Dell City 96 71 93 71 / 10 10 30 20 Fort Hancock 100 74 95 74 / 10 10 50 50 Loma Linda 91 67 86 66 / 30 10 40 40 Fabens 98 74 94 73 / 30 30 30 40 Santa Teresa 97 73 92 71 / 30 30 30 60 White Sands HQ 97 73 92 73 / 30 30 30 50 Jornada Range 96 70 91 68 / 30 20 40 50 Hatch 100 71 94 69 / 30 20 30 60 Columbus 100 73 94 71 / 20 20 30 60 Orogrande 94 69 90 68 / 30 40 30 40 Mayhill 84 55 80 56 / 30 10 60 30 Mescalero 83 55 80 55 / 40 20 60 30 Timberon 81 54 76 55 / 30 20 50 30 Winston 89 59 84 58 / 20 20 50 50 Hillsboro 96 66 91 63 / 20 20 40 60 Spaceport 95 68 91 67 / 30 20 30 50 Lake Roberts 92 59 87 58 / 30 20 80 60 Hurley 94 65 89 63 / 20 30 60 60 Cliff 100 68 94 66 / 10 10 70 50 Mule Creek 95 64 91 63 / 10 10 60 50 Faywood 93 67 88 64 / 30 30 60 60 Animas 99 70 94 68 / 10 30 50 70 Hachita 97 69 91 67 / 20 30 40 70 Antelope Wells 97 68 92 67 / 10 30 40 70 Cloverdale 94 67 89 64 / 20 30 50 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99