034 FXUS64 KEPZ 090456 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1056 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1036 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Low to mid-grade monsoon conditions expected for Wednesday, with storms enhanced in intensity to some degree by northerly flow aloft and increased wind shear. Some lowland storms could bring gusty winds and blowing dust as low level moisture becomes limited. - Expect decreasing thunderstorm coverage Thursday into Friday, but storms will still attempt to drift into the lowlands in the evenings. - High temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the end of the week. - An uptick in thunderstorm coverage is expected this weekend as moisture and upper level support improves. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1036 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Storm coverage turned out a little higher than expected 24 hours ago. But northerly flow and increased bulk layer shear aided in storm intensity as expected. Several strong wind gusts were reported, with blowing dust east of Lordsburg later spreading to the playa, and likely pushing south towards Highway 9. Also impressive, but highly localized flash flooding off San Augustin Pass in Dona Ana County, and urban flooding in parts of El Paso. Tomorrow (Wed) looks somewhat similar, but overall PWAT values will be down slightly, and 0-6 km wind shear a little weaker, but still around 30 knots in the afternoon, with northerly mid-level flow bringing pockets of cooler air aloft associated with weak disturbances. Expect storm coverage will be down slightly, but lowland propagation is still favored, and wider dewpoint depressions will again support stronger downbursts and outflow. We`ll probably have dust issues in SW New Mexico yet again. On Thursday, the subtropical ridge will drift westward and become elongated on an east-west axis as a shortwave trough moves across the northern Rockies. The ridge axis will be more or less right over us, with warmer air aloft diminishing, but not eliminating, precip coverage. An inverted trough will be moving into NE Mexico, with a tongue of drier, subsident air stretching from Oklahoma into the Big Bend region Thursday morning. Best precip chances will be over the Gila during the afternoon, dropping into SW New Mexico in the evening. Friday looks similar to Thursday, but the inverted trough looks to bring increased moisture to the area Saturday as it drifts south of the area. A weak surface trough may increase low level convergence as well. These conditions look to persist through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Variable, and generally light winds will persist overnight as leftover outflow boundaries work themselves out. Northeast flow will favor thunderstorms and outflow reaching the lowlands again on Wednesday afternoon and evening, but with a slight downtick in thunderstorm coverage. DMN most favored for thunder, followed by LRU, both carrying PROB30s, though with no mention of dust for the time being. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Daily thunderstorm chances will continue, especially over the area mountains but drier air will be filtering in through Friday. Expect high temperatures on the lowlands to get into the upper 90s to around 105 by Thursday which will lower RH`s into the mid teens, but the mountains will generally remain in the 20s. Winds will be on the light side through Thursday and a slightly breezy day with west to northwest winds for Friday. Moisture starts to return for the weekend with an uptick in thunderstorm chances and RH`s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 100 78 103 / 20 20 20 10 Sierra Blanca 67 92 66 94 / 10 10 10 0 Las Cruces 71 98 72 100 / 30 30 30 20 Alamogordo 69 97 72 100 / 20 20 20 10 Cloudcroft 53 75 54 77 / 30 60 30 30 Truth or Consequences 72 99 75 101 / 20 20 20 30 Silver City 66 93 68 95 / 40 50 30 50 Deming 72 100 73 103 / 40 40 50 20 Lordsburg 72 101 73 101 / 40 50 50 30 West El Paso Metro 77 97 77 100 / 20 20 20 10 Dell City 70 96 70 98 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 74 100 73 101 / 10 10 10 0 Loma Linda 69 92 70 94 / 10 20 20 10 Fabens 74 99 75 101 / 10 10 20 0 Santa Teresa 74 98 74 100 / 20 20 20 10 White Sands HQ 75 99 77 101 / 20 20 30 10 Jornada Range 70 98 72 100 / 20 30 30 20 Hatch 71 102 73 103 / 30 40 30 30 Columbus 74 100 76 102 / 40 30 50 20 Orogrande 71 96 71 97 / 20 30 30 10 Mayhill 57 85 59 88 / 20 50 30 30 Mescalero 58 85 60 88 / 30 60 40 30 Timberon 56 82 57 84 / 20 50 20 20 Winston 61 92 63 93 / 30 50 40 50 Hillsboro 68 98 70 99 / 30 50 30 40 Spaceport 69 98 70 100 / 20 30 30 30 Lake Roberts 61 95 63 95 / 40 60 30 50 Hurley 67 96 68 97 / 40 50 30 50 Cliff 69 101 70 102 / 40 50 30 50 Mule Creek 66 98 68 98 / 30 40 30 40 Faywood 69 95 70 96 / 40 50 30 50 Animas 72 101 74 101 / 50 40 50 30 Hachita 71 99 72 100 / 40 40 50 30 Antelope Wells 71 99 71 99 / 40 30 50 40 Cloverdale 71 95 69 94 / 50 40 50 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman