319 FXUS64 KEPZ 111123 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 523 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 522 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 - Temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend, with hottest temperatures today through Sunday. - Very dry conditions, plenty of sunshine and no chance for any precipitation through the weekend and into early next week. - Winds generally light, with the exception of low-end breezy conditions this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Overall, no major changes from previous forecast packages with fair weather conditions, light breezes (winds will become breezy this weekend), and above average temperatures expected through the period. Upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen it`s grip across the Desert Southwest today and Saturday. Again, like aforementioned in previous discussions, this will ultimately promote a substantial warming, lasting through the weekend. Temperatures this afternoon will be 7-15 above averages, topping out in the low 90s across the desert lowlands. Further warming will occur on Saturday, with Saturday being the warmest day of the period. Forecasted high temperatures today through Sunday will rival record high temperatures with highs topping out in the low to middle 90s each afternoon. Ridge axis will be over New Mexico and West Texas on Saturday, when the hottest temperatures will occur. High temperature on Saturday for El Paso is currently being forecasted to be 97 degrees, which would obliterate the previous record high of 90 degrees set back in 2018. In fact, temperatures for El Paso could rival the monthly record of 98 degrees. Temperatures will cool slightly heading into next week as a more progressive-like pattern sets up across western CONUS. Winds will be generally light to low-end breezy today as the aforementioned high pressure aloft settles in, along with the lack of any pressure gradients at the surface. Breaking of the morning inversion along with the afternoon low to mid level thermals will promote occasional gusts this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Breezy winds return Saturday and especially Sunday as SWerly flow aloft begins to nudge in from the west. The above average warmth, very dry air, and breezy winds will induce Critical Fire Weather Conditions this weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds light at 5-10 knots and generally VRB or out the NE. Winds will become SEerly through the day at 6-11 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 244 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 No significant changes from previous forecast packages. Like aforementioned in previous discussions, high pressure aloft regime will settle in across the Desert Southwest today and tomorrow. With this comes very dry air, daily Min RH values will drop to 3-15 percent each afternoon with poor overnight recoveries. Daily high temperatures will be 7-15 degrees above the seasonal average as well. This combination of very dry air and above average warmth will quickly dry out the 10-100 hour fuels, we are already starting to see that at most of RAWS sites with readings at/around or above the 90th percentile for ERCs. Ongoing severe to extreme drought also coming into play, especially with the dryness of the larger timber fuels. With high pressure aloft overhead through today, this upper flow regime will promote weak pressure gradients at the surface, ultimately offering light winds. Winds each afternoon and evening will be predominately terrain and drainage influenced, remaining light at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The sensible weather conditions in place and state of the fuels will promote Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Upper level ridge will flatten quickly on Sat/Sun and Monday as an upper level trough races across the Northern Rockies. As a result, the mid to upper level pressure gradient will tighten across the region, orientated from SW to NE inducing SWerly flow aloft. This will ultimately promote daily afternoon/evening occurrences of lee-side low development over the Front Range and surface troughing across New Mexico. Thus increasing surface and low-level winds across the area. This, with medium to high confidence, will bring the return of Critical Fire Weather conditions Saturday into Sunday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for NMZ110 and NMZ111 for Saturday. A Fire Weather Watch will remain in effect for all New Mexico fire weather zones. Deep afternoon mixing will allow for Good to Very Good, and in some instances Excellent smoke ventilation rates areawide through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 93 60 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 87 55 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 89 52 92 53 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 89 56 94 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 67 46 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 88 54 92 56 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 84 52 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 91 51 94 51 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 91 49 91 50 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 91 62 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 89 52 96 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 95 59 99 56 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 85 58 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 94 58 97 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 90 55 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 90 60 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 89 51 92 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 91 50 95 51 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 92 53 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 88 54 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 79 49 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 78 49 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 75 45 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 81 43 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 87 52 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 88 49 92 50 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 84 49 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 86 48 86 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 91 47 90 46 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 86 50 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 85 52 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 93 51 93 50 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 90 49 93 50 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 91 53 92 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 87 56 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Saturday for Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers