669
FXUS64 KEPZ 232353
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
553 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Potential for heavy rainfall with localized flooding this
week. Flood watches are in effect through Wednesday for the
Rio Grande Valley east through to the Sacramento Mountains.
- Showers/thunderstorms becoming widespread over the entire area
through Friday. Moisture peaks on Tuesday, with the highest
chances of heavy rainfall and flooding through Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Monsoon moisture will continue to move into southern New Mexico
and west Texas tonight into Tuesday. Tropical moisture will be
forced north due to flow between an upper level trough over
California and a dome of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic.
Moisture levels should peak Tuesday into Wednesday before
gradually decreasing across the region.
The main concerns will be flash flooding from heavy rainfall that
has a moderate risk (40% chance) of occurring for areas just east
of I-25 towards White Sands/Sacramento Mtns northward through
much of central New Mexico. Precipitable water values are expected
to be around 1.5 inches on Tuesday which is about the 99th
percentile of climatology. This along with ample moisture
transport should support widespread convection and depending upon
the rain rates - lead to flash flooding. Hi-res models seem to
point to the 6PM Tuesday to midnight time frame as the best
chances of thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall and flooding.
Flash flood watches have been expanded into the Rio Grande Valley
and El Paso metro areas for these reasons along with lining up
with favorable large scale ascent from upper level flow. One area
of concern will be the Gila Forrest region as it will be on the
edge of a lot of the higher moisture. If moisture increases more
in these areas then the flood watch may need to be modified to
include these areas. The Trout fire burn scar will be closely
watched for convection and resulting rain rates as it will not
take much rain to cause flash flooding on the burn scar.
Given all these concerns there is another scenario that could
play out that has happened before with monsoon moisture surges
like this. Mid level moisture and cloud cover could be more
substantial and limit daytime heating and therefore instability.
This could lead to clusters of storms producing moderate rain
which could still be an issue but may take more time for any kind
of flood response. This type of scenario is more ideal for soaking
rains into the ground but it will limit how much precipitation
falls. If there are more breaks in cloud cover and more
instability for storms to develop stronger updrafts and therefore
higher rain rates resulting then flooding becomes a much bigger
concern.
NWS ABQ
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Increasing BKN080 BKN200. Scattered BKN-OVC050CB -TSRA, mainly
east of the Rio Grande Valley, but developing to the west over the
next several hours. Isolated OVC040CB 1-3SM TSRA with wind gusts
of 35-45 knots. Thunderstorms mostly dissipating by around 06Z but
showers continuing through most of the night. Thunderstorms
developing again after 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Overall fire weather concerns are trending down due to an influx
of monsoon moisture into the region. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should increase Tuesday with the best chances of storms
Tuesday evening/night east of the Gila towards the Rio Grand
Valley. Trout fire burn scar will be on the edge of the area of
highest probability for heavy rainfall so it will be closely
monitored. Highest chances of any flooding should peak during this
time with thunderstorm activity decreasing in coverage through
the end of the week. Key point to remember with regards to the
Trout Fire burn scar is that it will not take much rainfall to
cause flooding and debris flows. Showers and storms moving over
some of the same areas will make them more prone to flooding
impacts with more runoff.
NWS ABQ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 73 87 71 87 / 70 80 90 70
Sierra Blanca 65 82 64 84 / 80 70 70 50
Las Cruces 69 85 66 82 / 60 90 90 80
Alamogordo 67 83 63 79 / 70 80 90 80
Cloudcroft 50 61 48 60 / 70 90 80 90
Truth or Consequences 70 84 66 82 / 40 80 80 80
Silver City 61 82 60 80 / 40 70 70 70
Deming 70 90 68 87 / 60 90 90 70
Lordsburg 67 90 66 88 / 30 60 60 60
West El Paso Metro 73 84 71 82 / 80 80 90 70
Dell City 70 84 68 84 / 80 70 70 60
Fort Hancock 71 88 71 89 / 80 70 80 60
Loma Linda 66 79 63 77 / 80 80 80 70
Fabens 71 87 70 85 / 70 80 80 70
Santa Teresa 70 84 69 82 / 70 80 90 80
White Sands HQ 72 82 70 81 / 70 80 90 80
Jornada Range 67 83 65 79 / 70 80 90 80
Hatch 69 87 67 82 / 60 90 90 80
Columbus 72 89 70 85 / 60 80 90 70
Orogrande 68 80 66 79 / 70 80 90 80
Mayhill 55 72 54 70 / 70 90 80 90
Mescalero 55 72 53 70 / 70 90 90 90
Timberon 52 69 50 66 / 70 90 80 80
Winston 55 76 55 74 / 40 80 80 80
Hillsboro 62 84 61 80 / 50 90 80 90
Spaceport 67 82 63 78 / 60 90 90 80
Lake Roberts 57 83 57 82 / 30 80 70 80
Hurley 62 85 61 83 / 40 80 70 70
Cliff 63 90 63 89 / 20 60 50 60
Mule Creek 60 87 61 87 / 10 50 40 40
Faywood 65 82 64 79 / 50 80 80 80
Animas 67 90 66 89 / 30 60 60 50
Hachita 67 88 66 85 / 60 80 80 70
Antelope Wells 66 88 66 86 / 60 80 80 70
Cloverdale 64 85 64 84 / 40 60 60 50
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Eastern/Central El
Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio
Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.
NM...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento
Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast
Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West
Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento
Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner