593
FXUS64 KEPZ 230500
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1100 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Potential for heavy rainfall with localized flooding this
week.
- Showers/thunderstorms becoming widespread over the entire
area Monday through Friday. Moisture peaks Monday and Tuesday,
with some heavy rain and local flooding possible.
- Below normal temperatures next week due to mostly cloudy
skies. Lowland highs 85 to 95 degrees.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1046 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025
A very active weather pattern will occur across southern New Mexico
and far west Texas this week and as a southerly Monsoon flow brings
abundant moisture to the region, significantly increasing chances
for widespread rainfall across the state. Sub tropical moisture will
feed the moisture plume that will be concentrated over New Mexico by
a strong area of high pressure to the east and a low pressure trough
to the west.
This plume of monsoonal moisture will fuel numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the region Monday and Tuesday with a potential
for locally heavy rainfall. The focus on Monday will be mainly the
eastern zones of the forecast area in Otero and Hudspeth counties.
Thunderstorms and showers will spread westward into the Rio Grande
valley Monday night into Tuesday. Precipitable water amounts of
1.4 to 1.6 inches are expected and are indicative heavy rain
potential should thunderstorms develop. There will be consideriable
cloudiness Monday and Tuesday which will work against some
thunderstorm developmentduring the day by keeping temperatures down.
However models indicate some subtle triggering mechanisms like mid
level cooling and and height falls and lifting aloft that should be
able to initiate thunderstorm development in a moist environment.
With abundant moisture inplace, thunderstorms will be efficient rain
producers with periods of heavy rainfall and localized flooding
occurring. The Sacramento mountains will have potential for up 3
inches of rainfall over the Monday to Tuesday frame with a potential
for flooding, especially along recent wildfire burn scars. A large
part of the area from the Rio Grande valley eastward has a 60 to 70
percent chance of greater than an inch total rainfall amounts.
Periods of heavy rain could quickly exceed those amounts in a short
period of time that could lead to flash flooding especially in urban
areas. A flash flood watch will be in effect for much of Otero and
Hudspeth counties starting tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday
morning. While there is a heavy rain potential for portions of El
Paso County as well Dona Ana and Sierra counties in New Mexico, the
highest impacts from heavy rain and flooding potential will be more
likely on Tuesday Tuesday night.
For the rest of the week, the Monsoon moisture plume will become
more diffuse and will weaken as the high pressure ridge to the east
breaks down and the trough to the west weakens. Atmospheric
moisture will dimimish somewhat, but there is no mechanism to
flush out the moisture from the region. Precipitable water values
will remain above an inch, indicative a favorable general
thunderstorm pattern area wide that will occur mainly in the
afternoon and evenings. Higher rain amounts will occur in the
mountains which will impact sensitive wildfire burn scars for the
rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025
VFR conditions through this morning for KTCS, KDMN, and KLRU.
Isolated -TSRA possible in vicinity but mostly east of KELP this
evening through 09Z. Most storm development will remain east and
south of the terminal. Calmer conditions will develop after 09Z
through to 16Z Tuesday morning.
TSRA will begin development over the Sac Mtns by late morning
with more widespread thunderstorm development expected from the
Continental divide eastward Monday afternoon and Monday night
impacting all Taf sites. Periods of MVFR for cigs and vsby in
heavy downpours from Thunderstorms will be possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1052 AM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Elevated fire conditions persisting west of the Rio Grande Valley
with low humidity and dry fuels, but to the east the transition
to the Monsoon pattern continues to take shape, as higher humidity
and scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening.
Pea-size hail and wind gusts of 40-50 mph possible with these
storms. The moisture/high humidity will spread across all the fire
zones Monday and Tuesday, resulting in widespread thunderstorms
and the potential for heavy rainfall and local flooding,
especially over burn scars. Area wide showers/thunderstorms will
continue Wednesday through Friday, and likely even through the
weekend, but heavy rainfall potential should lessen some.
Min RH: Lowlands: 8-14% west of the Rio Grande Valley
today..18-25% to the east; increasing to 25-40% all lowlands
Monday through Friday. Mountains: 10% Gila/Black Range today
increasing to 20-35% Monday through Friday; Sacramento Mtns 25-35%
today increasing to 45-65% Monday through Friday. Vent rates very
good-excellent today and Monday becoming fair-good Tuesday through
Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 97 75 94 73 / 40 40 50 70
Sierra Blanca 90 66 83 64 / 70 80 80 80
Las Cruces 94 67 93 68 / 10 10 30 70
Alamogordo 96 67 92 66 / 20 20 50 70
Cloudcroft 74 51 69 50 / 40 20 70 70
Truth or Consequences 97 67 94 69 / 0 0 20 50
Silver City 87 59 87 61 / 0 0 20 30
Deming 97 66 95 70 / 0 0 30 50
Lordsburg 94 63 93 64 / 0 0 20 30
West El Paso Metro 95 74 93 73 / 30 30 40 70
Dell City 96 69 88 69 / 60 60 80 80
Fort Hancock 97 71 91 71 / 70 70 80 80
Loma Linda 89 66 84 66 / 40 50 60 80
Fabens 96 72 92 70 / 60 60 60 80
Santa Teresa 94 71 92 70 / 30 30 40 70
White Sands HQ 96 72 94 71 / 20 20 40 60
Jornada Range 95 65 93 66 / 10 10 30 70
Hatch 97 64 96 68 / 0 0 20 60
Columbus 97 71 95 71 / 10 10 30 60
Orogrande 94 69 90 68 / 20 30 50 70
Mayhill 84 56 80 54 / 50 30 80 70
Mescalero 84 54 80 53 / 30 20 70 60
Timberon 81 52 76 52 / 40 40 70 70
Winston 87 52 86 54 / 0 0 30 40
Hillsboro 94 60 93 63 / 0 0 30 40
Spaceport 94 62 93 64 / 0 0 20 60
Lake Roberts 87 54 88 57 / 0 0 30 30
Hurley 91 59 90 62 / 0 0 20 40
Cliff 92 59 93 62 / 0 0 10 20
Mule Creek 88 56 89 59 / 0 0 10 10
Faywood 90 61 90 64 / 0 0 30 50
Animas 94 63 93 65 / 0 0 30 30
Hachita 94 64 92 66 / 0 10 40 50
Antelope Wells 93 64 90 65 / 10 10 60 50
Cloverdale 87 61 87 64 / 0 10 40 40
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening for
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande
Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio
Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands.
NM...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening for
East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes
Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento
Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West
Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...04-Lundeen