613
FXUS64 KEPZ 082331
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
531 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 526 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
- Dry and hot weather pattern will only slowly loosen its drip
heading into the weekend, with triple digit lowland high
temperatures continuing. Heat Advisories remain in effect for
El Paso and the Lower Valley through Saturday.
- Weaker showers and thunderstorms will be focused mainly over
the higher terrain of the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains
this afternoon and evening, and will be mostly dry.
- Thunderstorm chances will increase on Saturday, with gusty
winds and blowing dust possible as they move from the mountains
in to the lowlands, where moisture will have only increased
moderately.
- Thunderstorms with better rain chances arrive Sunday and
Monday as upper level disturbances take advantage of recycled
moisture over the area.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
The sprawling subtropical ridge still dominates the area today,
though the center has shifted to the eastern NM/TX border. This
afternoon looks to be very similar to yesterday, with scattered
weak convection, including dry thunder in the higher terrain of
the Gila and Sacramentos unable to survive the trek into the
lowlands, where dewpoints look to mix-out into the lower-30s by
the afternoon. Slightly deeper convection will be possible in the
southern NM Bootheel, on the fringes of slightly more favorable
moisture seeping in from the Sierra Madres.
The ridge will become more poorly defined tomorrow, allowing for
more recycled mid-level moisture to undercut it, along with some
cooler air aloft. The northerly branch of the jet stream will also
be nosing into the Four Corners region, with broad diffluence
across the region tomorrow. At the surface, a moderate Gulf Surge
over southern Arizona will result in westerly flow over SE AZ, and
this will push higher (~40s) dewpoints into far SW New Mexico in
the afternoon, particularly in the Bootheel (~50s). South-Central
NM will still see dewpoints mix-down into the 30s again.
The overall result will be an uptick in convection over the higher
terrain Saturday afternoon, with storms dropping into the
lowlands. There will be enough drier air still around for gusty
outflows, and probably a round of blowing dust for Lordsburg
Playa. Outflow-modified air may even try to cough up scattered
storms in south-central NM and Far West Texas in the evening.
That more active northern jet is the result of troughing across
the northern and central Rockies, which will send a shortwave
trough into northern and eastern New Mexico on Sunday. Along with
recycled and re-distributed moisture from Saturday`s convection,
this will help increase convection coverage across the area Sunday
afternoon and evening, including the lowlands. With lowland
dewpoints still modest (40s), expect gusty winds and some patchy
blowing dust as well.
Heading into Monday, the subtropical ridge will be split by the
trough, at this point over central Texas. Northerly flow aloft
will prevail, which often raises a flag for "spicier" convection
(somewhat stronger and often more organized) due to increased
wind shear and cooler air aloft. Coarser-scale models may be
underdoing convection a bit, given decent leftover moisture in the
area, 500 mb temps dropping from -4 to -8C, and diffluent flow
high aloft. 0-6km shear looks to increase to 20 to 30 knots in the
afternoon, peaking around 35 knots over Sierra County early in the
evening. It`s almost like we`re trying to repeat June -- hot hot
heat, followed by a spike in convection with an atypical northerly
flow aloft.
Tuesday, some drier air aloft tries to work into the area,
diminishing QPF, but I wouldn`t write it off yet. A lot will
depend on how quickly any convective debris clears out of the
area. Given the stronger mid-level flow, we might be able to
recover instability assuming the dry air advection aloft isn`t
too much.
Later in the week, easterly flow aloft looks to return, followed
by a more classic monsoon moisture plume setting up, but it may
favor western areas at least initially.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW130/250 with FEW-SCT130 more
likely after 18z Aug 9. Winds will be light and variable
throughout the period. ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected to begin
the mountains around 18z before moving into the lowlands after
20z, but confidence of impacts and timing at any given TAF site is
too low to warrant mention in TAFs at this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025
Expect another round of scattered, weak convection over the higher
terrain this afternoon, with a risk of dry lightning strikes and
gusty winds amid lower RH values (10-15%). Thunderstorm coverage
looks to increase on Saturday, with only a modest increase in
moisture. This will increase the risk of dry lightning strikes and
gusty outflow winds across the area, including into the lowlands.
Moisture will slowly begin to increase Sunday onwards, with better
chances for thunderstorms with wetting rainfall, and improved
overnight RH recovery. The most active days look to be Sunday and
Monday as cooler air aloft and and upper level shortwave trough
help enhance thunderstorm coverage and organization.
Towards the weekend, a more typical monsoon moisture plume looks
to set up, but it looks to favor areas west of the Divide and
perhaps more into SE Arizona.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 105 77 105 77 / 0 10 20 30
Sierra Blanca 99 67 99 69 / 0 10 20 20
Las Cruces 101 70 100 71 / 0 10 30 40
Alamogordo 102 73 100 72 / 10 10 20 30
Cloudcroft 80 57 78 56 / 20 20 40 40
Truth or Consequences 102 73 100 72 / 10 10 30 40
Silver City 96 67 94 64 / 20 20 40 40
Deming 103 70 104 70 / 10 10 30 40
Lordsburg 102 70 100 69 / 10 10 40 40
West El Paso Metro 102 75 101 77 / 0 10 20 30
Dell City 103 70 102 71 / 0 10 30 40
Fort Hancock 103 73 103 74 / 0 10 20 20
Loma Linda 97 70 95 70 / 0 10 20 30
Fabens 102 72 102 73 / 0 10 20 30
Santa Teresa 101 72 100 73 / 0 10 20 30
White Sands HQ 103 75 102 76 / 0 10 40 40
Jornada Range 101 70 100 72 / 0 10 30 40
Hatch 104 71 103 72 / 10 10 30 40
Columbus 103 73 102 74 / 0 10 30 30
Orogrande 100 70 99 72 / 10 10 20 30
Mayhill 91 62 89 61 / 20 20 50 50
Mescalero 90 62 89 60 / 20 20 30 30
Timberon 88 59 86 58 / 20 10 50 50
Winston 94 62 91 60 / 20 20 40 40
Hillsboro 101 69 99 67 / 20 20 40 40
Spaceport 101 70 100 69 / 0 10 30 30
Lake Roberts 97 62 94 59 / 20 20 50 40
Hurley 98 67 97 65 / 20 20 40 40
Cliff 103 68 101 66 / 20 20 40 40
Mule Creek 99 67 97 64 / 20 20 40 40
Faywood 98 69 96 67 / 20 20 40 40
Animas 102 69 100 70 / 10 20 40 40
Hachita 101 69 100 69 / 10 10 40 40
Antelope Wells 100 68 99 68 / 10 20 40 40
Cloverdale 95 65 94 65 / 20 20 40 50
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Saturday for Eastern/Central El
Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
County-Western El Paso County.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown