145 FXUS65 KABQ 081114 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 514 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 508 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 - A few severe storms will produce large hail and damaging wind gusts in northeast New Mexico this afternoon and evening. - Moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding Monday increases to high on Tuesday. There will also be a low risk of urban flash flooding each afternoon. A few storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts in central and eastern New Mexico Monday afternoon. - Temperatures will warm to the hottest values of the season thus far late next week, creating moderate heat risk in most lower elevation locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 239 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Shortwave perturbations are exiting northeastern NM after creating a few vigorous and severe storms in Union and Harding counties last evening. A weak upper low remains offshore of central CA while a ridge arches up over OR/WA, and a deep upper low will be pushing over southern Manitoba into MN today. The latter will send a cold front southward down the plains which should reach eastern CO, northeastern NM and the nearby panhandles of OK/TX by this afternoon. Areas of surface/moisture convergence ahead of the front will be a primary focus for convective initiation with remaining areas staying on the dry side. The northeasterly winds along and behind the front will contrast with the westerly flow (15-25 kt at 500 mb), leading to sufficient bulk shear for strong to severe cells. High resolution models and CAMs are indicating mostly discrete cells in our area this afternoon with multicellular clusters and eventually a MCS developing in the panhandle of TX this evening. Another mid evening round will arrive for northeastern NM as cells roll off of the Sangre de Cristos of CO. Outside of storms, temperatures will be seasonably warm to hot today with Roswell forecast to reach 102 as the hot spot in the CWA. Tonight the moisture will spill much farther west as convective cold pools help push the front past the Rio Grande. Surface dewpoints will rise considerably with low 50s F reaching ABQ and Socorro by dawn Monday along with a gusty (up to 35-45 mph) east canyon wind. This will set the stage for more storms in central areas of NM on Monday, many of which will be capable of hail and damaging winds, with the northern mountains hosting numerous cells. One fly in the ointment will be the remnants of the offshore CA low which will be making its way into NM by Monday evening. This will likely enhance convection with faint large scale ascent and larger scale vorticity, especially into Monday night with a few models (including the RRFS and GFS) projecting large multicellular clusters over and just east of the central mountain chain. Storm motions would turn somewhat erratic near the remnants of the wave, but a general east southeast heading would be expected with heavy downpours, as PWATs will range between 0.75 to 1.0 inch. This will increase the risk for burn scar flooding on the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon wildfire burn scar Monday and Monday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 239 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Tuesday is shaping up to be an active and impactful weather day. A shortwave will be overhead and vorticity from hi-res models suggests an associated MCV will keep showers around into the morning hours near its center. This will be the area to watch for convective initiation late Tuesday morning as storms will be quicker to develop under this area of enhanced lift. Unfortunately, some models are indicating this could be right over the Ruidoso complex of burn scars. The NAM has an LI of -6C near Ruidoso on Tuesday at Noon and the Grand Ensemble shows a mean sfc CAPE of 1700 J/kg over the burn complex. In other words, the environment will be very unstable with a forcing mechanism to generate storms. Storms will be outflow driven which poses another concern since a storm could sit over the burn scar for an extended period of time. Elsewhere, it will once again be an active day, although severe weather will generally be confined to the southeast given the lack of shear compared to Monday. PWATs of 100-150% of normal will support fairly efficient rainfall (compared to a typical early June) so urban flash flooding will once again be a concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. Wednesday will bring a downtick in storm activity however a shortwave grazing the northeast should help to support a few supercells in that area. Drier westerlies will gradually take over Thursday into Friday, pushing the dryline and the associated storm activity eastward. This will coincide with a warming trend as heights rise and the Monsoon high makes its first appearance of the season. However, the ENS is trying to bring a late season trough into the desert southwest around next weekend, which would keep the area dry and breezy. The solution supported by most GEFS and GEPS members has the Monsoon High sitting overhead, and starting to gradually draw moisture northward into the Gulf of California. Either way, this is expected to be the hottest stretch of the year thus far with moderate to potentialy high heat risk over much of the area. NBM probs of temps >100F have trended up in Albuquerque, with it now showing a 22% of reaching 100F next Monday. Meanwhile, the probs are greater than 60% in Roswell during the same period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Low stratus clouds are redeveloping in northeastern to east central areas of New Mexico early this morning as cool, moist outflow arrives from earlier thunderstorms. Patchy MVFR (1,000 to 3,000 ft) ceilings and perhaps a small spot or two of IFR (less than 1,000 ft) ceilings will develop through dawn. These will then erode away and burn off through the late morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over northeastern to east central New Mexico this afternoon with a few storms turning strong to severe with large hail, damaging downburst winds, and heavy downpours. These storms will diminish and die out through the evening with another round of low clouds filling back into more of eastern New Mexico late tonight. A strong easterly gap/canyon wind will also develop tonight in vulnerable central areas such as KABQ, where an Airport Weather Warning will likely be warranted due to gusts of 35 kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 239 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Similar to yesterday and in a fairly typical June fashion, the weather pattern will remain stormy across northeastern NM today while western areas remain dry with very low RH. Excellent morning humidity recovery is underway early this morning in northeastern zones as evidenced by low stratus clouds. By this afternoon another round of strong to severe thunderstorms will take shape there in the northeast. An abrupt change will get underway tonight though, as moist outflows from thunderstorms will push westward. This will usher in a gusty gap/canyon wind in vulnerable central areas tonight through Monday morning. The added moisture from the east will lead to the development of new storms farther west into the Rio Grande valley and even toward the Continental Divide and AZ border Monday afternoon. There are still concerns for dry thunderstorms/virga on the western fringe of the moisture push, mostly along and west of the Continental Divide on Monday with this area dwindling over the AZ-NM border Tuesday. A heightened risk for new wildfire ignitions from lightning will come from these drier storms. Many thunderstorms will be capable of producing very gusty outflows. Monday night will likely be an active night storm-wise, and Tuesday will also feature scattered to numerous storms over much of the forecast area with the central mountain chain hosting the most development. Storms will start to reduce in number on Wednesday, but scattered activity is still forecast. Storm prospects lower more into Thursday and Friday with drier air arriving via light westerly winds. After cooling some on Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will heat up (rising 3 to 10 degrees above normal) through the late part of the week and next weekend with afternoon RH plummeting below 10 percent in much of the western half of the state. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 89 55 88 57 / 0 0 20 20 Dulce........................... 83 44 81 43 / 10 5 50 30 Cuba............................ 84 51 80 50 / 0 5 50 40 Gallup.......................... 87 47 83 48 / 5 5 20 20 El Morro........................ 84 51 81 50 / 5 5 30 40 Grants.......................... 87 50 82 49 / 10 5 30 40 Quemado......................... 87 53 84 52 / 0 0 20 30 Magdalena....................... 90 57 82 55 / 10 0 30 40 Datil........................... 87 52 83 50 / 0 0 30 40 Reserve......................... 92 49 90 48 / 0 0 20 20 Glenwood........................ 95 54 94 53 / 0 0 10 10 Chama........................... 77 44 73 43 / 20 10 70 30 Los Alamos...................... 81 56 74 54 / 10 10 70 40 Pecos........................... 83 51 73 51 / 5 20 80 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 48 73 46 / 20 20 80 40 Red River....................... 72 40 65 39 / 30 30 90 40 Angel Fire...................... 75 35 68 36 / 20 20 80 40 Taos............................ 82 46 76 44 / 10 10 70 40 Mora............................ 79 46 69 45 / 20 20 80 50 Espanola........................ 88 54 82 52 / 10 10 60 40 Santa Fe........................ 85 55 78 53 / 5 10 70 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 54 82 52 / 5 10 60 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 63 84 59 / 0 5 50 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 92 64 85 61 / 0 5 40 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 56 87 54 / 0 0 30 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 93 62 85 60 / 5 5 30 40 Belen........................... 95 60 89 59 / 0 0 30 40 Bernalillo...................... 93 60 87 58 / 0 5 40 40 Bosque Farms.................... 94 57 87 56 / 0 0 40 40 Corrales........................ 94 60 87 58 / 0 5 30 40 Los Lunas....................... 94 59 88 58 / 0 0 30 40 Placitas........................ 90 60 83 58 / 0 10 40 40 Rio Rancho...................... 92 61 85 59 / 5 5 30 40 Socorro......................... 98 63 92 62 / 5 0 30 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 54 77 53 / 0 5 50 50 Tijeras......................... 87 56 79 55 / 0 5 50 50 Edgewood........................ 87 52 76 52 / 0 10 50 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 51 76 49 / 0 10 50 50 Clines Corners.................. 84 51 71 50 / 0 20 60 50 Mountainair..................... 88 53 77 52 / 0 5 40 50 Gran Quivira.................... 89 54 78 52 / 0 5 40 50 Carrizozo....................... 93 59 86 58 / 0 0 40 40 Ruidoso......................... 87 49 76 51 / 0 5 50 40 Capulin......................... 78 48 71 47 / 40 50 70 30 Raton........................... 82 49 75 47 / 30 40 70 30 Springer........................ 85 50 76 49 / 30 30 70 40 Las Vegas....................... 83 50 71 48 / 20 20 70 50 Clayton......................... 84 54 77 55 / 40 40 30 20 Roy............................. 85 52 74 52 / 30 40 50 40 Conchas......................... 93 59 79 58 / 20 30 40 40 Santa Rosa...................... 91 57 77 55 / 10 20 50 50 Tucumcari....................... 90 57 77 56 / 20 30 20 30 Clovis.......................... 92 60 76 59 / 10 30 30 40 Portales........................ 95 59 76 58 / 10 20 30 40 Fort Sumner..................... 94 59 77 58 / 10 20 40 40 Roswell......................... 102 65 84 64 / 5 5 30 40 Picacho......................... 96 58 78 58 / 5 10 50 40 Elk............................. 94 54 78 54 / 0 0 50 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...52