454 FXUS65 KABQ 191127 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 527 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 521 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025 - Minor to moderate heat risk continues today and Friday as above normal temperatures remain. Isolated areas of major heat risk are possible across central and western New Mexico. - The threat of rapid fire spread returns to western New Mexico Friday and Saturday due to breezy southwest winds and very low humidity. - Precipitation chances begin to increase late weekend and into early next week across central and eastern New Mexico, increasing the threat of flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 221 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025 A 594dam upper level high will build over western NM today and as a result, temperatures will soar. Triple digit readings are expected for the Farmington area as well as the ABQ Valley, Belen and Socorro areas. A Heat Advisory is already in effect for the Northwest Plateau and the Middle Rio Grande Valley and that looks to be in good shape. Abundant low level moisture persists across eastern NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s this morning. With southeasterly low level flow backing up to the Central Mountain Chain and beyond, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. The favored area will be along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain where the upslope flow will exist as well as a more pronounced moisture gradient. These storms will be capable of gusty winds, small hail and brief but heavy rainfall before diminishing. around or shortly after sunset. A few additional sprinkles and/or virga showers will develop over the Southwest Mountains and potentially the lower Rio Grande Valley as well. These showers will cause gusty and erratic wind gusts potentially in excess of 40 mph. Another concern today will be the smoke from the fires across southwest NM, particularly the Trout fire. With low level southerly winds increasing today, smoke should spread northward, impacting portions of western NM, though a haze may be noticed across the remainder of western NM and much of central NM as well. H5 heights will decrease across western NM on Friday as the upper high shifts eastward in response to the approaching west coast trough. Increased south to southwest flow aloft will mix to the surface allowing for gusty winds to develop, especially across western and northeast NM where gusts may exceed 40 mph. Enough moisture will remain in place for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop. West of the Central Mountain Chain, storms will be mainly dry with gusty and erratic winds. Along and east of the Central Mountain Chain, storms will be wetter, but may still cause erratic wind gusts. Should the Trout fire continue to put out a lot of smoke, wind trajectories will take it into the Rio Grande Valley, potentially impacting areas from ABQ to Socorro. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 221 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025 A pattern shift begins to take place Saturday across the state. The 500mb high pressure that had been sitting over us begins to shift into eastern CONUS thanks to an approaching potent trough from the PNW. Initially, this setup begins to push drier air further into western NM, to where any virga showers and/or dry lightning strikes are likely to be confined to the central mountain chain. Additionally, a tighter pressure gradient both at 700mb across northwest NM and at the surface across eastern NM work to create breezy to windy conditions across much of the area. Wind gusts across northwest and eastern NM may get up to 35-40mph through Saturday, and a strong nocturnal LLJ across eastern NM Saturday night may keep these gusts around into the overnight hours. In regard to temperatures, upper 90s to low 100s are likely across lower elevation areas Saturday. The pattern fully shifts from a heat wave to an influx of monsoonal moisture on Sunday, which is very likely to remain through at least the middle of next week. The aformentioned high pressure and trough become nearly stationary across eastern and western CONUS respectively by late Sunday, providing a channel for subtropical moisture to advect into the state. This can be easily seen as forecast PWAT values surge above 1", with the potential to rise as high as 1.5". This is good for the 90-95th percentile PWAT values, per NAEFS Percentile tables. Efficient rainfall rates are likely with thunderstorms that develop given these PWAT values. Moisture further increases Monday and Tuesday, and this is likely where the threat of flash flooding, both on and off burn scars, is the highest. Training storms appear to be a favored scenario, given southeast upslope flow and deformation aloft, which increases the threat of flash flooding. Current NBM 50th percentile rainfall from Monday-Wednesday paints much of the state with at least 0.5", with 1- 1.5" across the central mountain chain and near both burn scar complexes. 90th percentile paints amounts of 2-3" along the higher terrain for the same period, a notable number given we remain about 4-5 days out from the onset of precipitation. The thought process in flooding risk is outlined well in the most recent WPC Day 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Overall, a monsoon pattern is set to develop Sunday and more so into next week, with the risk of flash flooding, both on and off burn scars, increasing. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025 MVFR cigs have developed across portions of northeast NM, to include over KLVS and KCAO. These cigs will persist through approximately 15Z before diminishing. Breezy southerly winds will develop this afternoon across all areas, however, the strongest winds will be across northeast NM where gusts near 30kt are expected. A few showers and thunderstorms are also expected near and just east of the central mountain chain where weak upslope and a surface moisture gradient exists. These storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds in excess of 35kt, small hail and brief but heavy rainfall. KLVS is most likely to be impacted. These storms will diminish around sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Main concern for the next few days is that critical fire weather conditions will develop both Friday and Saturday across portions of western NM. For today, hot and dry conditions will persist across central and western NM. Between 6 and 12 hours of single digit humidities are expected across northwest and west central areas. Southerly winds will also increase today, bringing smoke from the Buck and Trout fires northward. On Friday and Saturday, continued hot and dry conditions will persist across central and western NM, though temperatures will drop a few degrees on Saturday. However, as the upper level high over the area today shifts eastward, south to southwest flow aloft will increase. Strong mixing will allow these stronger winds to mix to the surface, with gusts between 30 and 40 mph likely. These strong winds, single digit humidities, and near 90th percentile ERC`s will result in high fire danger and critical fire weather conditions. Thus, have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Friday for Zone 101 and added Zone 105. Have also added a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday for the same two zones. Meanwhile, enough moisture will be in place Friday and Saturday for a few showers and thunderstorms favoring the high terrain. Across western NM, virga will be the rule, though a dry thunderstorm or two is not out of the question on Friday. Storms of the wetter variety will be the rule along and east of the Central Mountain Chain. Moisture begins to return in earnest on Sunday and southerly, monsoon flow will persist through mid week. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected potentially as early as Sunday across eastern NM, but moreso Monday through at least Wednesday areawide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 100 60 100 57 / 0 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 92 52 91 47 / 5 5 10 0 Cuba............................ 92 59 91 55 / 5 5 20 5 Gallup.......................... 97 53 95 49 / 0 0 5 0 El Morro........................ 91 57 90 53 / 0 0 10 0 Grants.......................... 96 55 95 52 / 5 0 10 0 Quemado......................... 93 60 92 55 / 5 0 10 0 Magdalena....................... 92 67 91 62 / 10 5 20 5 Datil........................... 90 58 90 56 / 10 5 10 5 Reserve......................... 97 53 96 49 / 5 0 5 0 Glenwood........................ 100 57 98 55 / 5 5 5 5 Chama........................... 85 49 84 47 / 5 5 20 0 Los Alamos...................... 87 64 88 61 / 10 5 20 5 Pecos........................... 86 57 88 57 / 20 10 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 86 57 86 55 / 10 0 10 0 Red River....................... 75 49 76 49 / 10 5 20 0 Angel Fire...................... 80 43 80 43 / 20 5 10 0 Taos............................ 89 57 89 50 / 10 0 10 0 Mora............................ 82 50 84 52 / 30 10 20 5 Espanola........................ 95 63 95 58 / 5 5 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 89 63 90 62 / 10 5 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 94 61 94 60 / 10 5 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 96 70 97 69 / 10 5 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 99 71 98 67 / 5 5 10 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 100 69 99 65 / 5 5 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 99 69 98 66 / 5 5 10 5 Belen........................... 101 66 100 62 / 5 5 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 99 68 99 65 / 5 5 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 100 66 99 62 / 5 5 10 10 Corrales........................ 100 67 99 66 / 5 5 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 100 67 99 63 / 5 5 10 10 Placitas........................ 95 68 95 66 / 5 5 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 98 69 98 66 / 5 5 10 5 Socorro......................... 101 70 100 68 / 10 0 10 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 90 63 91 60 / 10 5 10 10 Tijeras......................... 92 64 93 62 / 10 5 10 10 Edgewood........................ 90 60 92 57 / 20 5 10 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 92 56 92 55 / 20 10 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 85 58 87 58 / 20 10 10 10 Mountainair..................... 91 62 91 60 / 20 5 5 10 Gran Quivira.................... 89 59 90 61 / 20 5 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 92 64 94 68 / 20 5 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 85 59 85 62 / 20 5 20 5 Capulin......................... 85 57 89 58 / 20 10 10 0 Raton........................... 90 55 93 55 / 20 10 10 0 Springer........................ 88 56 93 59 / 30 10 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 85 55 89 56 / 30 10 10 5 Clayton......................... 92 66 94 67 / 5 10 0 0 Roy............................. 87 61 90 63 / 20 20 5 0 Conchas......................... 95 66 97 70 / 10 10 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 92 65 94 66 / 10 5 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 95 67 96 68 / 0 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 94 65 96 68 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 95 65 97 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 95 66 97 68 / 0 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 98 70 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 92 62 95 64 / 10 0 10 5 Elk............................. 89 59 92 62 / 10 5 10 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for NMZ101-105. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for NMZ101-105. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...34