543
FXUS64 KMAF 051113
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible both Thursday and Friday,
  afternoons/evenings. Primary concerns will be very large hail,
  damaging winds, and the potential for a tornado or two.

- Temperatures heat up over the weekend, with several locations
  reaching or exceeding the century mark.

- A cold front begins to sweep in late Monday and Tuesday,
  knocking high temperatures back near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Early this morning, a convectively-reinforced cold front is slowing
moving south across the eastern New Mexico plains and Texas
Panhandle. This boundary will begin to enter our northern counties
by the late morning and early afternoon hours. Meanwhile, a broad
trough is beginning to develop into an upper-level low pressure over
Southern California while an upper-level high pressure remains
situated over Northern Mexico. Low clouds are streaming back
westward in response to lee troughing ahead of the aforementioned
trough and cold front. Temperatures this morning remain relatively
warm as a result, ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s for most.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to be waning by late morning, but
a low (20-40%) chance of thunderstorms is anticipated for the
northern Permian Basin nearest the cold front.

By afternoon, a subtle shortwave disturbance is expected to eject
out across the Southern Great Plains, setting the stage for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm quickly
through the afternoon, likely reaching convective temperature
shortly after peak heating. Most locations can expect to reach the
90s during the afternoon with 100s along the Rio Grande. Lower
temperatures in the 80s are likely near the cold front or in areas
that hang onto low clouds the longest. During the mid-afternoon two
initial areas of thunderstorms are likely. One area is nearest the
favored higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and the other across
Southeast New Mexico near the cold front. Other thunderstorm
activity remains possible around other elevated heat sources, but
the highest (40-60%) chance is expected near the aforementioned
areas. Activity will slowly grow in coverage and spread eastward
through the evening hours. Eventually this activity is expected to
wane and dissipate during the late evening hours due to the loss of
solar heating. Much of the area can expected a medium (30-60%)
chance of thunderstorms. A lower (10-30%) chance can be expected for
eastern portions of the area due to uncertainty of eastern extent of
thunderstorms and potential for low clouds limiting afternoon
instability.

Severe weather is expected with any of the stronger thunderstorms
that develop. The main threats are going to be very large hail and
damaging winds due to a combination of steep-lapse rates, moderate
instability, and relatively long-straight hodographs. This should
support at least a semi-discrete to discrete supercell storm mode,
but some upscale growth is likely by the early evening hours. The
tornado risk remains relatively low, but can`t be ruled out. While
overall low-level wind shear is modest, a localized corridor of
higher low-level wind shear may be realized by any thunderstorms
that can interact with the stalled/slow-moving cold front draped
across Southeast New Mexico and the Northern Permian Basin.

Heading into tonight, thunderstorms gradually dissipate and should
largely end after midnight. Continued southeasterly winds and cloud
cover keep temperatures relatively warm once again. Temperatures in
the 60s to lower 70s are going to be common by sunrise on Friday.

The upper-level low pressure near Southern California may retrograde
slightly as the upper-level high pressure strengthens over Northern
Mexico on Friday. This increases expected temperatures across the
area. Most locations climb a few degrees over today into the middle
90s to lower 100s. Another shortwave disturbance is expected to sink
into the Central Great Plains by the afternoon. This supports
another afternoon and evening of thunderstorms, though with more
limited coverage and with more westward extent. This reduction in
activity is largely due to weaker upper-level support compared to
today. That said, a medium (30-50%) chance of thunderstorms is
anticipated from the Davis Mountains to Southeast New Mexico.
Unfortunately, much of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos
appears to remain dry with a very low (<15%) chance of
thunderstorms. Much of the same severe weather risk as today  is
expected tomorrow, except the tornado risk is lower.

Quieter, but hotter weather looks to arrive this weekend as we head
into the long term forecast.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Sizzling temperatures define much of the long term period as an
upper-level ridge creeps up out of Northern Mexico. Friday evening,
a shortwave impulse rolls from eastern New Mexico to the Texas
Panhandle before continuing its track northeastward, taking any
showers and storms with it. Saturday morning lows remain mild, in
the mid 60s/70s. By the afternoon, highs swelter into the upper 90s
and triple digits. Some areas along the Rio Grande may reach Heat
Advisory criteria. A silver lining to the heat will be low (~20%)
rain chances in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains early Saturday
afternoon. This aided by a surface low over eastern New Mexico
extending southward.

An upper-level trough begins to approach our area Sunday, gradually
dropping geopotential heights and thus, highs. Sunday afternoon sees
90s become more prevalent across the Permian Basin, while 100s
dominate near the river valleys. As the trough and its associated
cold front inch closer Sunday evening, rain chances in the Permian
Basin and near the Davis Mountains increase to 20-40%. The cold
front sweeps into our northern counties Monday, bringing highs in
the 80s to these locations, while 90s/100s hold elsewhere. By
Tuesday, the front should clear most of the area, leaving highs in
the 80s/90s in its wake. An added bonus with this system is
widespread rain chances. PoPs Tuesday evening currently range
anywhere from 20%-40% areawide. Cooler conditions and rain
chances are forecast to hang around Wednesday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Low clouds resulting in MVFR ceilings have overspread all sites
with the exception of PEQ. These ceilings are expected to lift and
clear from southwest to northeast through the middle to late
morning. VFR conditions are expected beyond this time frame.
Southeasterly winds remain prevailing, but are expected to become
stronger this afternoon. Thunderstorms remain possible, the
highest confidence in impacts are at PEQ, FST, and HOB during the
late afternoon to early evening. Brief visibility reductions to
mVFR or even IFR and gusty, erratic winds are to be expected in
and around thunderstorms. For remaining terminals the threat of
thunderstorms remains less confident. If confidence increases,
thunderstorms may be introduced into the TAF. Thunderstorms will
dissipate or exit TAF sites to the east during the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  71  96  72 /  30  20  10  10
Carlsbad                 94  67  98  68 /  30  20  20  20
Dryden                   97  74  99  74 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Stockton            95  70  98  73 /  50  40  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           89  67  92  69 /  20  20  20  20
Hobbs                    88  65  94  66 /  50  20  20  20
Marfa                    90  64  91  66 /  40  50  30  30
Midland Intl Airport     92  71  96  73 /  30  20  10  10
Odessa                   91  71  95  73 /  30  20  10  10
Wink                     93  69  97  72 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...91