555
FXUS64 KMAF 201036
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
536 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 535 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

- Increasing rain chances from the Presidio Valley into the Davis
  Mountains and western higher terrain of W TX and SE NM late
  this weekend into next week.

- Rainfall amounts next week uncertain, with near zero rain
  chances expected at this time east of Lea County, NM and the
  Upper Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau.

- Near normal temperatures expected throughout the extended.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Temperatures remain warm in the upper 70s this morning as winds
continue around 10-15 mph. Mid level ridging slowly transitions east
today offering very little change from day to day. While we saw a
few heavy thunderstorms near and west of the Davis Mountains
Thursday, convective coverage is expected to be less today. Strong
subsidence will keep most locations dry outside of the higher
terrain. Temperatures will once again climb to near normal for mid
June with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s; 100s along  the Rio
Grande.

Expect another warm night as gusty winds keep the atmosphere well
mixed. Some locations will struggle to get below the 80 degree mark.
As the ridge shifts further east, this will open the door to an
increase in convection Saturday afternoon. Storms will initiate over
the higher terrain and move off to the east, possibly reaching the
Pecos River before meeting stronger subsidence. Brief heavy rainfall
and gusty winds can be expected in and around these storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

The mid- to upper-level weather pattern is forecast to be stationary
as a ridge of high pressure sits over the southeastern CONUS.
Simultaneously, broad troughing stalls over the western half of the
CONUS, bringing southerly to southeasterly flow aloft over
southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas. This means that the
western half of the CWA (from southeast New Mexico to the Big Bend)
could see much needed rainfall each day this forecast period as
abundant moisture gets pulled into the area ahead of the trough. The
highest chances of beneficial rainfall is expected across our far
western counties (40-60%). At this time, chances of precipitation
(20-40%) drops by Tuesday and Wednesday next week. High/low
temperatures remain steady in the mid 90s (upper 80s at higher
elevations)/upper 60s to low 70s each day/night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Strong southerly winds are expected through the period. Gusts will
approach 30 kts at times, especially after 21/00Z. Otherwise, VFR
prevails.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               97  73  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 98  74  99  72 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                   97  73  94  73 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            96  71  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           93  70  92  69 /  10  10  10  30
Hobbs                    95  69  95  68 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    90  64  89  66 /  10  10  30  20
Midland Intl Airport     96  73  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   95  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     98  72  97  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29