555 FXUS64 KMAF 201036 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 536 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 - Increasing rain chances from the Presidio Valley into the Davis Mountains and western higher terrain of W TX and SE NM late this weekend into next week. - Rainfall amounts next week uncertain, with near zero rain chances expected at this time east of Lea County, NM and the Upper Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau. - Near normal temperatures expected throughout the extended. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Temperatures remain warm in the upper 70s this morning as winds continue around 10-15 mph. Mid level ridging slowly transitions east today offering very little change from day to day. While we saw a few heavy thunderstorms near and west of the Davis Mountains Thursday, convective coverage is expected to be less today. Strong subsidence will keep most locations dry outside of the higher terrain. Temperatures will once again climb to near normal for mid June with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s; 100s along the Rio Grande. Expect another warm night as gusty winds keep the atmosphere well mixed. Some locations will struggle to get below the 80 degree mark. As the ridge shifts further east, this will open the door to an increase in convection Saturday afternoon. Storms will initiate over the higher terrain and move off to the east, possibly reaching the Pecos River before meeting stronger subsidence. Brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds can be expected in and around these storms. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 The mid- to upper-level weather pattern is forecast to be stationary as a ridge of high pressure sits over the southeastern CONUS. Simultaneously, broad troughing stalls over the western half of the CONUS, bringing southerly to southeasterly flow aloft over southeastern New Mexico and far west Texas. This means that the western half of the CWA (from southeast New Mexico to the Big Bend) could see much needed rainfall each day this forecast period as abundant moisture gets pulled into the area ahead of the trough. The highest chances of beneficial rainfall is expected across our far western counties (40-60%). At this time, chances of precipitation (20-40%) drops by Tuesday and Wednesday next week. High/low temperatures remain steady in the mid 90s (upper 80s at higher elevations)/upper 60s to low 70s each day/night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Strong southerly winds are expected through the period. Gusts will approach 30 kts at times, especially after 21/00Z. Otherwise, VFR prevails. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 97 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 98 74 99 72 / 10 10 10 20 Dryden 97 73 94 73 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 96 71 94 70 / 10 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 93 70 92 69 / 10 10 10 30 Hobbs 95 69 95 68 / 0 0 0 10 Marfa 90 64 89 66 / 10 10 30 20 Midland Intl Airport 96 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 95 72 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 98 72 97 72 / 0 0 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...29