543 FXUS64 KMAF 051113 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 613 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 552 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 - Severe thunderstorms will be possible both Thursday and Friday, afternoons/evenings. Primary concerns will be very large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for a tornado or two. - Temperatures heat up over the weekend, with several locations reaching or exceeding the century mark. - A cold front begins to sweep in late Monday and Tuesday, knocking high temperatures back near normal. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Early this morning, a convectively-reinforced cold front is slowing moving south across the eastern New Mexico plains and Texas Panhandle. This boundary will begin to enter our northern counties by the late morning and early afternoon hours. Meanwhile, a broad trough is beginning to develop into an upper-level low pressure over Southern California while an upper-level high pressure remains situated over Northern Mexico. Low clouds are streaming back westward in response to lee troughing ahead of the aforementioned trough and cold front. Temperatures this morning remain relatively warm as a result, ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s for most. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be waning by late morning, but a low (20-40%) chance of thunderstorms is anticipated for the northern Permian Basin nearest the cold front. By afternoon, a subtle shortwave disturbance is expected to eject out across the Southern Great Plains, setting the stage for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm quickly through the afternoon, likely reaching convective temperature shortly after peak heating. Most locations can expect to reach the 90s during the afternoon with 100s along the Rio Grande. Lower temperatures in the 80s are likely near the cold front or in areas that hang onto low clouds the longest. During the mid-afternoon two initial areas of thunderstorms are likely. One area is nearest the favored higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and the other across Southeast New Mexico near the cold front. Other thunderstorm activity remains possible around other elevated heat sources, but the highest (40-60%) chance is expected near the aforementioned areas. Activity will slowly grow in coverage and spread eastward through the evening hours. Eventually this activity is expected to wane and dissipate during the late evening hours due to the loss of solar heating. Much of the area can expected a medium (30-60%) chance of thunderstorms. A lower (10-30%) chance can be expected for eastern portions of the area due to uncertainty of eastern extent of thunderstorms and potential for low clouds limiting afternoon instability. Severe weather is expected with any of the stronger thunderstorms that develop. The main threats are going to be very large hail and damaging winds due to a combination of steep-lapse rates, moderate instability, and relatively long-straight hodographs. This should support at least a semi-discrete to discrete supercell storm mode, but some upscale growth is likely by the early evening hours. The tornado risk remains relatively low, but can`t be ruled out. While overall low-level wind shear is modest, a localized corridor of higher low-level wind shear may be realized by any thunderstorms that can interact with the stalled/slow-moving cold front draped across Southeast New Mexico and the Northern Permian Basin. Heading into tonight, thunderstorms gradually dissipate and should largely end after midnight. Continued southeasterly winds and cloud cover keep temperatures relatively warm once again. Temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s are going to be common by sunrise on Friday. The upper-level low pressure near Southern California may retrograde slightly as the upper-level high pressure strengthens over Northern Mexico on Friday. This increases expected temperatures across the area. Most locations climb a few degrees over today into the middle 90s to lower 100s. Another shortwave disturbance is expected to sink into the Central Great Plains by the afternoon. This supports another afternoon and evening of thunderstorms, though with more limited coverage and with more westward extent. This reduction in activity is largely due to weaker upper-level support compared to today. That said, a medium (30-50%) chance of thunderstorms is anticipated from the Davis Mountains to Southeast New Mexico. Unfortunately, much of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos appears to remain dry with a very low (<15%) chance of thunderstorms. Much of the same severe weather risk as today is expected tomorrow, except the tornado risk is lower. Quieter, but hotter weather looks to arrive this weekend as we head into the long term forecast. -Chehak && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Sizzling temperatures define much of the long term period as an upper-level ridge creeps up out of Northern Mexico. Friday evening, a shortwave impulse rolls from eastern New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle before continuing its track northeastward, taking any showers and storms with it. Saturday morning lows remain mild, in the mid 60s/70s. By the afternoon, highs swelter into the upper 90s and triple digits. Some areas along the Rio Grande may reach Heat Advisory criteria. A silver lining to the heat will be low (~20%) rain chances in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains early Saturday afternoon. This aided by a surface low over eastern New Mexico extending southward. An upper-level trough begins to approach our area Sunday, gradually dropping geopotential heights and thus, highs. Sunday afternoon sees 90s become more prevalent across the Permian Basin, while 100s dominate near the river valleys. As the trough and its associated cold front inch closer Sunday evening, rain chances in the Permian Basin and near the Davis Mountains increase to 20-40%. The cold front sweeps into our northern counties Monday, bringing highs in the 80s to these locations, while 90s/100s hold elsewhere. By Tuesday, the front should clear most of the area, leaving highs in the 80s/90s in its wake. An added bonus with this system is widespread rain chances. PoPs Tuesday evening currently range anywhere from 20%-40% areawide. Cooler conditions and rain chances are forecast to hang around Wednesday as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Low clouds resulting in MVFR ceilings have overspread all sites with the exception of PEQ. These ceilings are expected to lift and clear from southwest to northeast through the middle to late morning. VFR conditions are expected beyond this time frame. Southeasterly winds remain prevailing, but are expected to become stronger this afternoon. Thunderstorms remain possible, the highest confidence in impacts are at PEQ, FST, and HOB during the late afternoon to early evening. Brief visibility reductions to mVFR or even IFR and gusty, erratic winds are to be expected in and around thunderstorms. For remaining terminals the threat of thunderstorms remains less confident. If confidence increases, thunderstorms may be introduced into the TAF. Thunderstorms will dissipate or exit TAF sites to the east during the evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 91 71 96 72 / 30 20 10 10 Carlsbad 94 67 98 68 / 30 20 20 20 Dryden 97 74 99 74 / 20 20 0 0 Fort Stockton 95 70 98 73 / 50 40 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 89 67 92 69 / 20 20 20 20 Hobbs 88 65 94 66 / 50 20 20 20 Marfa 90 64 91 66 / 40 50 30 30 Midland Intl Airport 92 71 96 73 / 30 20 10 10 Odessa 91 71 95 73 / 30 20 10 10 Wink 93 69 97 72 / 50 30 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...91