444
FXUS64 KMAF 221102
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
502 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 501 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

- Well above normal temperatures continue this week, with highs
  in the upper 70s to low 80s.

- Dry conditions continue through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 125 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VIS/IR satellite imagery early this morning again shows mostly clear
skies as the dominant mid to upper ridging over the Southern US and
accompanying large scale subsidence. Highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s F, lower to mid 70s F higher elevations, and lower to mid 80s F
will be commonplace today, as much as 15 to 20 degrees warmer than
yesterday for SE NM plains, Upper Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin.
However, high temperatures will only be a few degrees warmer for
locations southwest of there that experienced similar high
temperatures yesterday. Tonight, amidst persistent southerly winds,
dew point temperatures increase into the mid 30s to mid 40s F from
the northern Permian Basin into eastern Stockton Plateau, and
furthermore into the mid 40s to mid 50s F for much of the eastern
and southeastern Permian Basin into Terrell County. This increase in
boundary layer moisture inhibiting overnight cooling reduces diurnal
ranges to 15F to 20F feast of SE NM plains into Marfa Plateau and
Big Bend, while diurnal ranges 20F to 25F persist in 20s to 30s F
dew point air over western higher terrain and surrounding foothills
and plains. This translates to lows tonight falling into the mid 30s
to mid 40s F, apart from mid 40s to mid 50s F in valleys southwest
of Pecos River and eastern parts of the forecast area where higher
boundary layer moisture pools. Tomorrow much the same is expected in
terms of high and low temperatures, albeit a few degrees warmer.
winds shift more to the south/southwest as quasi-zonal mid to upper
flow mixes back down to the surface and surface lee troughing
restrengthens. No rain is in the forecast until next weekend, since
ridging over the Southern Great Plains into Southeast US will keep
any weather system well to the north of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 125 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Well above normal temperatures continues on Christmas Eve lasting
through Saturday. This is thanks to the upper-level ridge axis
centered over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. As a result,
guidance has consistent high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s
throughout the week. Shortwave impulses within the flow of the upper
ridge aids in the development of high clouds Christmas Eve through
Saturday morning. This will mitigate radiational cooling keeping
overnight temperatures warm in the mid 40s and mid 50s regionwide.
These forecasted lows reach near record-breaking "warm low"
territory through Saturday morning. Long-range guidance shows
Christmas Day and Friday being the warmest days (upper 70s to mid
80s for many locations) as the upper-level ridge of high pressure
strengthens over the region. By late week, cluster analysis
indicates an upper-level storm system developing across the West
Coast. As this system approaches on Sunday, a cold front will move
through the region Saturday night into Sunday morning dropping
high temperatures into the upper 50s and mid 60s for most
locations. Despite significant spread among ensemble members,
current trends suggest temperatures will continue to decrease. Dry
conditions persist through the week.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions with light and variable winds at terminals
throughout the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               78  51  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 78  40  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   75  47  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            81  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           71  48  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    78  40  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    78  37  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     77  50  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   76  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     77  39  76  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94