121
FXUS64 KMAF 231711
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1111 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1110 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

- Patchy fog possible Monday morning for eastern Permian Basin

- Cold fronts expected Tuesday and Thursday

- Cold front Thursday leads to 25% to 30% chance of PoPs Western
  Low Rolling plains with accumulations up to a few tenths of an
  inch in showers

- Dry and mild with westerly downsloping winds and a warming trend
  from Friday into early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 151 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Moisture surging north across the area this morning is causing
low clouds and patchy fog to form. Most of the visibilities are
3-5SM but there are isolated areas down to 1/4SM so be alert
driving this morning. These conditions should persist until 12-15Z
when insolation and a more westerly wind direction help dissipate
the moisture. Highs this afternoon should then reach the 70s for
most locations which is about 10 degrees above normal. Lows
tonight drop into the upper 30s and 40s with a possible return of
the low clouds and patchy fog, especially across the eastern
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos. A weak cold front moving
through tonight brings highs Tuesday down into the 60s, cooler
though still above normal.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 151 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Deterministic and ensemble models remain in agreement that quasi-
zonal mid to upper tropospheric flow will continue in the
extended. Tuesday night, northerly winds veer to southerly as weak
ridging at the surface and aloft begins to build back in. Lows in
the mid to upper 30s to mid to upper 40s are forecast. Christmas
Day, ridging allows highs to rise 10 to 12 degrees above average
and as much as 20 degrees above average in the Big Bend, with 60s
for most of the Permian Basin, Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau and
Lower Trans Pecos, and 70s and above elsewhere, mid to upper 80s
in the Big Bend. Wednesday night lows will be similar to Tuesday
night, but winds will shift from southerly to more westerly and
then northwesterly as another cold front drops down into the area.
CAA and northwesterly winds Thursday keep highs 4 to 6 degrees
above average. Mid to upper 50s in northern Lea County and
Guadalupes into Davis Mountains and Lower Trans Pecos, 60s north
of the Rio Grande basins and Terrell County, and 70s in Rio Grande
basins and Terrell County are all be expected. Lift associated
with the front brings a 25% to 30% chance of PoPs for the Western
Low Rolling Plains and 20% PoPs farther west over northern Lea
County into the north and southeast Permian Basin. While PoPs have
trended up, any rainfall is expected to be light and showery,
with accumulations only a few tenths of an inch over the Western
Low Rolling Plains and hundredths of an inch elsewhere. Thursday
night lows will be similar to the previous few nights.

Northwesterly winds Thursday give way to westerly winds Friday
into early next week. These westerly downsloping winds will lead
to a warming trend in highs and lows Friday into early next week,
as well as development of lee troughing oriented northeast to
southwest stretching from SE NM plains into far W TX. Development
of lee troughing and mixing during the day will allow winds to
become gusty from the Guadalupes into the Davis Mountains and
Lower Trans Pecos each afternoon. Warmest highs are expected by
next Monday, with widespread 70s and lower to mid 80s, 60s in
higher elevations. Similar can be expected for lows, with
widespread 40s, mid to upper 30s in usual cooler spots in SE NM
plains, northwest Permian Basin, basins of Culberson County, and
peaks and foothills of Davis Mountains. No rain in sight into
early next week over Thursday`s showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

VFR remains through the TAF period. Winds stay light through the
afternoon. Frontal passage occurring this evening and shifting winds
to the northwest. Monitoring encroachment of low clouds near FST/MAF
for tomorrow morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  42  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72  38  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   74  47  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            78  44  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           64  42  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    73  36  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    72  39  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     72  41  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   72  42  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     75  39  66  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...93