306
FXUS64 KMAF 170447
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1147 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1141 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
- Critical fire weather will be of concern tomorrow and Friday due
to dry conditions and strong winds. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect Thursday morning through Thursday evening for southeastern
New Mexico, the northwestern Permian Basin, and the higher
terrain.
- Rain chances see an uptick Friday night through Saturday night
with the approach of a storm system. The best rain chances
remain in the eastern Permian Basin, with a few strong to
severe storms possible in the extreme eastern Permian Basin.
- Rain chances stick around for the middle of next week as a
series of disturbances roll through the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
As our next major disturbance dives south out of British Columbia
this afternoon, another weaker disturbance makes landfall across
Southern California. Ahead of these features, modest ridging keeps
temperatures above normal, while surface lee troughing is slowly
bringing low-level moisture back into the region. Temperatures climb
into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon under mostly sunny
skies. While low-level moisture is appreciable, limited lift and no
well-defined dryline keeps most locations dry. The exception is over
the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and adjacent plains. A
subtle disturbance lifts out of northern Mexico later this afternoon
and evening, as seen on water-vapor imagery currently. This feature
in combination with upslope flow may result in a few showers or
thunderstorms. With that said, a relatively dry sub-cloud layer and
weak flow under the ridge will keep any light accumulations limited
and confined to nearest the higher elevations. Everything quickly
dissipates after sunset with the loss of solar heating. With
continued lee troughing, moist return flow limits cooling tonight as
most only fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s to start the day on
Thursday.
Heading into Thursday afternoon, strengthening southwesterly winds
overspread most the region as the aforementioned troughs begin to
phase near the Four Corners region. The strongest of these winds is
expected over the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
now in effect. This warm, downsloping winds continues the relatively
hot temperatures. Most locations can count on reaching into the 90s
by mid-afternoon with 100s nearest the Rio Grande. A weak
disturbance is once again expected to move out of northern Mexico
later in the afternoon on Friday into the evening. At this time, low-
level moisture appears to remain focused across far eastern portions
of the area ahead of a dryline. An isolated thunderstorm is possible
along this dryline, but the likelihood of this transpiring remains
low. West of the dryline is expected to be very dry and with the
stronger southwesterly winds fire weather is a concern. See the Fire
Weather Discussion below for full details. Despite this, increasing
mid-level moisture could result in a high-based shower or
thunderstorm over the higher elevations around the Presidio Valley,
Marfa Plateau, and Davis Mountains. With moisture being rather
limited, expect little to no accumulation with this passing
disturbance. Continued lee troughing and a retreating dryline
heading into Friday keeps everyone warm with 60s for morning low
temperatures.
-Chehak
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
An mid-level trough digs into the Desert Southwest and gradually
approaches our region Friday. Throughout much of Friday, the
trough`s jet streak hovers overhead, resulting in breezy to windy
conditions. Blowing dust may be of concern during the afternoon,
primarily for the mountains and southeastern New Mexico. Cloud
coverage keeps Friday`s highs in the 80s and 90s. The combination of
relatively strong winds and warm temperatures bring about fire
weather concerns Friday afternoon. Aside from wind, dust, and fire
weather, this system packs some rain/storm chances. Lee troughing
generates a surface low in northern New Mexico Friday morning. The
low swings into the Texas Panhandle by the afternoon/evening, where
its associated cold front becomes stalled. By the evening, the
dryline retrogrades over our easternmost counties. Ensemble data
shows moisture coinciding with lift from the trough, steep mid-level
lapse rates, and mean 0-500 mb wind shear values over 40 kts Friday
evening. With Friday night PoPs ranging from 20%-40%, greatest
chances in our easternmost counties, a few strong to severe storms
may be on the table. However, most of the activity looks to stay to
the east of our area.
Saturday, the aforementioned cold front sweeps in, bringing gusty
winds and better rain/storm chances than the previous night.
Afternoon highs top out in the 70s and 80s. During the evening, the
dryline once again shifts westward, settling in the eastern half of
our area. The mid-level trough translates across the region
overnight, providing lift that coincides with ample deep layer shear
and steep lapse rates. Although, similar to Friday night, mean
surface CAPE looks to remain fairly low. Regardless, 20%-60% PoPs
are in the forecast, with potential for a few storms to be on the
strong to severe side. Again, most of the action will be toward our
eastern counties and areas east of our region.
By Sunday, the trough departs and we briefly return to mostly zonal
flow. A broad trough takes over the weather pattern as we begin a
new work week. A series of short wave disturbances may give rise to
more rain chances around the middle of the week. Otherwise, high
temperatures rebound from the 70s and 80s on Sunday, to the 80s and
90s to finish out the long term period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
VFR continues with gusty south winds through the night. Gusts will
diminish by sunrise with winds veering to the southwest during
the afternoon. Expect increasing winds after noon, especially at
KCNM and KHOB where gusts >30 kts are likely. There is also a low
probability of BLDU at these sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday across
southeast New Mexico, northwest Permian Basin, and the higher
terrain as an upper-level storm system approaches. The 500mb jet max
will remain north of the region, however, 20ft winds are expected to
still be strong. Along with strong winds, minRH values will be
critical. ERCs will be in the 75-89th percentile Thursday and Friday
across portions of the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin with areas
elsewhere near and below the 50th percentile. Being that the last
wetting rains in the area occurred more than a week ago at this
point, fuels have had the chance to dry out. As such, we have issued
a Red Flag Warning for Thursday morning through Thursday evening
over southeastern New Mexico, the northwestern Permian Basin, and
the higher terrain.
Friday, critical fire weather concerns will be over the same
locations, however, increasing mid/high clouds will mitigate curing
of fine fuels. Fire weather concerns decrease heading into the
weekend as a Pacific front arrives Saturday night and the upper-
level storm system exits the region on Sunday. Near-critical
concerns may stick around Saturday afternoon due to strong winds
ahead of the front.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 62 97 65 90 / 0 0 10 0
Carlsbad 61 94 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 61 91 62 93 / 10 0 10 0
Fort Stockton 63 98 66 91 / 10 10 10 10
Guadalupe Pass 62 84 61 76 / 0 0 0 10
Hobbs 56 92 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 54 88 59 82 / 10 0 10 10
Midland Intl Airport 61 95 65 89 / 0 0 10 0
Odessa 61 94 65 88 / 0 0 10 0
Wink 59 96 64 92 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
MDT/ Thursday for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati
Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-
Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe and Delaware
Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
Winkler.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ Thursday for Andrews-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe
Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Loving-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54
Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Thursday to 1 AM CDT
/midnight MDT/ Friday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.
High Wind Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night
for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 7 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Chaves
Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for Chaves
Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
High Wind Warning from 9 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday
night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29