396 FXUS64 KMAF 091716 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1216 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 - Widespread thunderstorms are likely through the beginning of the week. A medium (40-60%) chance of thunderstorms tonight becomes a medium to high (50-80%) chance of thunderstorms again during Tuesday afternoon. - A Marginal to Slight (1 and 2 of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms is expected today and Tuesday, with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds. - Thunderstorm chances continue into Wednesday (40-70%, highest in the mountains and eastern Permian Basin). The severe threat is low, but flash flooding will be a concern. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 As the shortwave that brought active weather to portions of the southern Great Plains continues off towards the east, a strong cold front has begun its march south across the region. Gusty northeast winds are being felt in its wake alongside cooler temperatures. Monday morning`s temperatures start out 5 degrees cooler than previous for all but the Rio Grande Valley as a result. One can expect 60s to lower 70s to start the week. Off to our west, the large upper-level low pressure that was off the West Coast moves onshore as the upper-level high pressure over northern Mexico slides west. This then allows the now open shortwave to enter the Four Corners region by the late afternoon and evening hours on Monday. In the meantime, cooler and quieter weather starts the afternoon for all locations outside of the Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures top out 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Sunday. Many can anticipate a refreshing afternoon in the 80s to lower 90s. The same can not be said for areas along the Rio Grande that hold onto the 100 degree heat for another day. By the late afternoon, a low (20- 40%) chance of thunderstorms takes shape near the Davis Mountains. Elsewhere, should remain dry until the evening hours. By evening, the low (20-40%) chance of thunderstorms begins to expand to the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico. Heading into Monday night, a line or broken line of thunderstorms is expected to take shape over southeast New Mexico before moving east across the Permian Basin. Overall, a medium (40-60%) chance of thunderstorms for the aforementioned areas. Severe weather remains a potential concern with sufficient instability and shear in place. The main limiting factor may be a stabilizing environment as any activity moves through the overnight hours. That said, at least a low risk of large hail and damaging winds is expected. Similarly, flash flooding may be a concern for areas that see slow-moving or multiple rounds of thunderstorms. By Tuesday morning, the thunderstorms from Monday should have finally moved east of the region. This allows for at least a temporary lull in activity. Temperatures during the morning hours should be similar to Monday morning and the same can be said for afternoon temperatures, though the Rio Grande Valley now gets in on the cooler weather. Once again, afternoon and evening thunderstorms are anticipated. This is as the previously mentioned shortwave over the Four Corners continues to approach the area. A medium to high (50-80%) chance of thunderstorms is expected for the entire region, though the best chances are still nearest the favored higher terrain. Severe weather and flash flooding remain of concern once again, but this remains a low risk. -Chehak && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Thunderstorms continue into Tuesday night as the shortwave trough begins to make its way across the region. Much of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico have a 50-70% chance of seeing a thunderstorm, with the best chances being concentrated in the Davis Mountains/Stockton Plateau and the Permian Basin. Forecast models hint that thunderstorms may coalesce into a complex as they move off to the east by early Wednesday morning. Redevelopment is expected during the day Wednesday as the trough continues to make its way across our area. This time, the best chances will be located across eastern portions of the region (eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos), along with the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau due to continued upslope flow. Chances Wednesday afternoon range from 40-70%, decreasing after dark as the system finally pushes east of our area. Severe weather concerns still look to decrease Tuesday night into Wednesday as 0-6 km shear weakens to 20-30 kts. That being said, a couple of storms could still produce damaging winds, along with large hail. Perhaps the bigger concern would be the potential for flash flooding. PWATs will be well-above climatology (in fact, over the 90th percentile). This, combined with the potential for some locations to see multiple rounds of thunderstorms, lends credence to a growing flash flooding concern. Otherwise, temperatures Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday`s (highs in the 80s for most, some 90s in usual hot spots). By Thursday, we will be on the backside of the trough. Some continued thunderstorm chances will persist over the Davis Mountains (10-30%), but otherwise rain chances diminish for everyone else. Ridging once again starts to build back in towards the weekend. As a result, by the weekend temperatures warm back into the 90s and low 100s and rain chances go to nil pretty much everywhere. Sprang && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 MVFR or lower CIGs for terminals across SE NM plains into Permian Basin lift to VFR by 22Z, as northeast winds SE NM plains into Upper Trans Pecos shift to easterly from 20Z Monday into 00Z Tuesday. There is a low probability of showers/storms moving over Stockton Plateau from Davis Mountains 21Z-01Z, but coverage is uncertain so left out mention in TAFs. Despite uncertainty in exact coverage of showers/storms, included mention of TSRA in TEMPO from 03Z-07Z for TAFs for SE NM plains, Upper Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin, with a chance of storms SE NM plains 01Z-07Z, into Upper Trans Pecos 04Z-10Z, and Permian Basin 07Z-12Z, when model guidance runs indicate storms moving through these regions. Main impacts from storms at terminals will be MVFR VIS or below, damaging winds, large hail, flooding rain, and lightning. After storms clear terminals across Permian Basin, winds remain easterly and below 20 knots as CIGs drop below VFR in spots, although exact locations where this occurs remain uncertain. Gustiest winds near 20 knots outside of storms expected across SE NM plains, Permian Basin, and Stockton Plateau 19Z today into 12Z Tuesday, and again 16Z Tuesday into end of period for Stockton Plateau. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 66 85 65 84 / 50 60 60 70 Carlsbad 67 85 64 86 / 40 70 70 40 Dryden 75 93 69 89 / 30 50 60 70 Fort Stockton 70 88 65 89 / 40 70 70 70 Guadalupe Pass 64 81 61 84 / 20 60 60 40 Hobbs 63 84 61 84 / 60 70 70 40 Marfa 64 85 59 85 / 30 80 60 70 Midland Intl Airport 68 86 66 85 / 50 60 70 60 Odessa 67 85 65 84 / 50 60 70 50 Wink 68 87 64 86 / 50 70 70 50 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...94