222
FXUS64 KMAF 230729
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
129 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

- Patchy dense fog is expected this morning across portions of the
  central/eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. Drive with
  caution if encountering fog this morning!

- More widespread and denser fog is forecast tonight into tomorrow
  morning across the Permian Basin, far southeast New Mexico,
  Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau.

- Above average high and low temperatures for this week and record warm
  low temperatures for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day forecast
  through this week.

- No precipitation chances until late this weekend into next week, with
  amounts, timing, and precipitation type uncertain at this time
  range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 125 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Current satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog development
across portions of the Hill Country. This is expected to expand
northwest as the night progresses bringing the potential of patchy
dense fog over the eastern half of the forecast area (portions of
central/eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau) early this
morning. The HREF has high ( > 80%) probabilities of dense fog
(visibilities below 0.5 mile) over far eastern Pecos and eastern
Terrell counties, while medium (40-60%) probabilities over the
central and eastern Permian extending into the Stockton Plateau.
Drive with caution if encountering fog this morning! By 10am CST,
fog will cease over the aforementioned areas.

The well above normal temperature trend continues today lasting
through much of the week, thanks to an upper-level ridge centered
over the region. Highs this afternoon are anticipated to range in
the mid 70s and low 80s for most locations. Tonight, return flow
advects more moisture from the Gulf resulting in more fog
development. High resolution guidance suggests more widespread and
denser fog spanning over portions of the Permian Basin, southeast
New Mexico, Stockton Plateau, and Trans Pecos. The highest ( >
80%) probabilities in dense fog occurring during this timeframe is
centered over portions of far southeast New Mexico, western
Permian Basin, and the Stockton Plateau. Warm lows in the 40s to
upper 50s remain as fog and clouds move in overnight.

Christmas Eve, temperatures are forecast to be a couple of
degrees cooler than today as cloud cover persists through the
afternoon. This is due to shortwave impulses within the flow of
the upper ridge aiding in ascent for cloud cover. Christmas Eve
night into Christmas morning, surface southerly winds will promote
continued near record- breaking warm lows in the 40s to mid 50s,
along with patchy fog for the eastern half of the forecast area.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 125 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Mid to upper ridging over the Southern Great Plains into
Southeast US persists into the weekend, before a weather system
associated with a decrease in ridging and increasing in troughing
developing from west to east results in a chance of showers and
cooler temperatures. Each day, breezy south/southwest winds this
week develop in vicinity of lee troughing over the western higher
terrain, where winds are forecast to be highest compared to
surrounding lower elevations. Temperatures through the week will
feature highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s F, upper 60s to lower 70s
F higher elevations, and mid to upper 80s F Rio Grande basins.
However, persistent large scale subsidence and accompanying
warming from mid to upper ridging and south/southwest downsloping
winds increasing ahead of the next weather system results in a
warming trend in temperatures mid to late week (Christmas Eve
until the day after Christmas). Lows likewise settle into the mid
40s to mid 50s F range as dew point temperatures/boundary layer
moisture in the 30s F western higher terrain and SE NM plains, mid
30s to mid 40s F Big Bend into much of central and northern
Permian Basin, and lower to mid 50s F Terrell County into
southeast and easternmost Permian Basin limits overnight cooling.
High and low temperatures begin to trend down by a few degrees
Saturday and Saturday night, but the main wave of CAA is still
expected to arrive Sunday and Monday.

While the pattern does not look very favorable for precipitation
and any accumulations are uncertain this far out, some models are
showing precipitation for Sunday and Monday accompanying cooler
temperatures, which we will continue to monitor. Deterministic and
ensemble models are showing a range of solutions, with ECMWF and
CMC showing more of a progressive troughing pattern developing
from west to east and little if any precipitation. In contrast,
the Grand Ensemble and ensemble cluster members, EC-AIFS, GFS, and
AIGFS have a split flow mid tropospheric pattern with troughing
closing off over CA and another lobe of the troughing deepening
more over eastern Canada into the Ohio Valley, with highest and
most widespread precipitation accumulations over northern and
eastern parts of the forecast area in the GFS and AIGFS models,
even while subtle ridging persists over the forecast area.
Finally, ICON is showing a more quasi-zonal solution with little
to no precipitation accumulation through early next week. This is
all in comparison to NBM showing highest precipitation
accumulations of only a few hundredths of an inch over westernmost
higher terrain through early next week. At this time range,
temperatures are still uncertain, but every model apart from the
GFS shows a cold front moving through the area later in the day
Sunday, and Monday looks to be the cooler of the two days in all
models. NBM depicts temperatures for most locations outside of the
Rio Grande not getting above the 50s and 60s F Sunday, and not
above 60s F except for Presidio Valley into Big Bend Monday.
Despite dew point temperatures falling below 30s F, lows only look
to fall into the 20s to 30s F range Sunday and Monday nights, due
to low clouds accompanying the next push of cooler air.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR continues at all terminals. MVFR to IFR CIGs move in just east
of MAF/FST by early Tuesday morning. Winds remain light and
southerly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               78  55  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 77  41  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   77  53  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            80  50  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           71  48  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    77  45  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    77  38  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     77  55  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   76  55  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     76  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...93