845
FXUS64 KMAF 180343
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
943 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 942 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

- Above normal temperatures expected to continue, with highs in
  the 70s for most.

- There is a high (70-90%) probability of record highs Saturday,
  with widespread temperatures in the low 80s.

- Dry conditions continue through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 115 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Surface analysis and satellite observations this morning showed
evidence of a weak front extending from southern portions of the
Texas Panhandle and into the Permian Basin/Lower Trans-Pecos region,
indicated by a wind shift. This front is expected to have little
effect on temperatures this afternoon, with highs still in the upper
60s to low 70s for most. Another weak front is forecast to move
through the area on Thursday, yet still having little to no impact
on high temperatures. Northwest flow aloft helps to keep our area
above normal and dry, despite the weak fronts.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

The extended forecast begins with even warmer temperatures as
northwest flow aloft transitions to zonal flow aloft by Saturday. In
fact, there is a high (70-90%) probability of breaking record highs
as afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low-to-mid 80s for most
(thanks to westerly downslope flow). For reference, the previous
record high at KMAF was 79F, set back in 2010. The latest model
guidance suggests that winds could be a bit breezy Saturday
afternoon as a surface low associated with lee troughing develops
ahead of a cold front. A few minor shortwaves moving through the jet
stream located over the Central Plains is expected to send the
aforementioned cold front into our region by Saturday night,
potentially bringing Sunday`s highs down into the upper 60s to low
70s. However, there is a lot of spread amongst the ensembles for
Sunday`s highs. Afternoon highs will depend on the strength of the
cold front. With that said, the lack of amplification in the upper-
level pattern should prevent temperatures from dropping too low. As
such, high temperatures for Sunday may trend upward a little bit as
the weekend approaches. By early next week, temperatures quickly
warm back up into the mid-to-upper 70s for most as heights begin to
slightly increase and warm air advection returns. The extended
forecast remains dry as deep moisture remains off to the east.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 942 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a few high clouds.
A cold front will arrive late morning, but will be weak, and not
worth a gust. Surface winds veer back to return flow after
sundown.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               43  65  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 44  75  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   44  79  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            48  74  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           45  65  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    44  69  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    37  72  32  72 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     45  68  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   46  68  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     40  73  36  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99