438
FXUS65 KABQ 082327 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
527 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Solar October continues with high temperatures 10-15 degrees above
normal and mostly sunny conditions for most of New Mexico. Some
cloud cover over the high terrain on Wednesday and Thursday could
limit high temperatures and create some sprinkles and virga. Friday
and Saturday heats up again with several high temperature records
being threatened. Sunday afternoon will see the passage of a weak
backdoor cold front that will bring some gusty winds into the
eastern plains and through the central mountain chain. Temperatures
will drop after the weekend, particularly in eastern New Mexico
where temperatures will be close to average for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 329 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Above normal temperatures are prevailing again today as high
pressure aloft remains parked over AZ and NM. Pressure heights are
running less than what they were a few days ago, but still well
above average (nearly at the 90th percentile at 500 mb). As
expected, the high-based diurnal cumulus is a bit more expansive
than the past couple of days, and there is also some thin high
cirrus overhead. Radar echoes are quite minimal, but do outline
areas where sprinkles or virga is being observed this afternoon.
While no measurable rainfall is expected, localized and sudden wind
gusts could be observed beneath these weak showers, as very arid
conditions and high evaporation potential remain beneath these high
lifting condensation levels (LCLs) which could lead to enhanced
downdrafts.

The showers will shift south southeastward into the early evening,
trying to roll off of the higher terrain, but likely not succeeding
in most areas. Remnants from these clouds will likely persist
overnight into the early morning Wednesday. This may not be enough
to stunt radiational cooling, so overnight low temperatures were not
raised much for tonight. Into Wednesday, the atmosphere will repeat
itself with more high-based diurnal cumulus graduating into weak
showers and virga over the highlands by the late afternoon. Pressure
heights may gain a decameter or two, and daytime high temperatures
might also gain a degree or so, but changes from today will
essentially be negligible.  This will even be true in the northeast
where a weak northeasterly wind shift will develop, but fail to
produce any cool air advection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Thursday through Saturday... The upper level high remains strong
over the Desert Southwest and looks to strengthen to 590 dam as it
sits squarely over the NM and AZ border on Friday and Saturday.
According to SPC sounding climatology, this would be a record 500mb
height for Friday and Saturday which is why near record temperatures
are being forecast for several locales around the state. Bumped up
temperatures a couple degrees over the eastern plains on Friday and
Saturday where temperatures could be as much as 19 degrees above
climate normals. Central and western parts of the state will see 8-
15 degrees above normal. Greater upper level moisture over the high
terrain on Thursday afternoon in the Gila and Sacramento mountains
could bring some sprinkles/virga and gusty outflow winds, but it
should remain fairly sunny for the rest of the state.

Sunday through Tuesday... A backdoor cold front looks to enter the
region from the northeast on Sunday. There is currently some
uncertainty on the timing of the front`s passage, but tending to
agree with solutions showing an earlier passage, with an easterly
wind shift over the plains on Sunday afternoon. A canyon wind
looks to develop through the Rio Grand Valley on Sunday evening,
but it doesn`t seem like it will be too strong with wind speeds in
the 10 to 15 kt range. Some greater spread among the models for
temperatures immediately following the front. There is some
uncertainty as well regarding how far south the front will push
through, but did drop temperatures a couple degrees over areas in
the southeast plains. Overall, high temperatures in the eastern
plains could be as much as 10 to 15 degrees lower on Sunday and
Monday, than on Saturday. The forecast becomes more uncertain on
Monday and Tuesday as models struggle to agree on a solution
regarding an upper level trough forming over the Pacific states.
Cluster analysis indicates that GFS members are trending towards
the formation of an upper level low over the Four Corners region
which could bring some increased cloud cover and chances of light
rain. Euro members are not as confident in the formation of this
system and continues with the upper level ridging pattern. In any
case, northern New Mexico should see some cloudier days and
possible sprinkles over the high terrain early next week.
Temperatures should continue to trend downward as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Mid level cigs with isold high-based virga showers and sprinkles
will dissipate thru late this evening. Winds will be light and
terrain dominated over the region thru sunrise. Another crop of
high-based virga showers and sprinkles will develop over the high
terrain after 1pm then shift east/southeast into nearby highlands
and northeast NM thru sunset. Stronger activity will be capable
of erratic wind gusts up to 40 kt in the vicinity of the higher
terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather are forecast to
prevail through the next seven days (through Sunday the 13th). A few
places will begin to flirt with near-record or even record-breaking
high temperatures through the rest of the week. Precipitation
chances remain extremely low with only a few weak showers and virga
(evaporating rainfall) expected over the mountains and highlands.
Fuel moisture will continue to dwindle with rising Energy Release
Components (ERC) and higher Burning Indices (BI). Light to moderate
breezes will prevail with the main wind concern being confined to
localized areas and brief time spans beneath any of the previously
mentioned weak showers, as this activity could abruptly produce
gusty downdrafts. There is the potential for a weak upper level
disturbance to graze past northern NM early next week, but rainfall
chances seem to keep getting delayed and reduced with each forecast
model run, so confidence in any appreciable weather or fire weather
impacts is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  44  83  43  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  37  78  37  80 /   5  10   5   0
Cuba............................  43  79  44  79 /   5   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  36  81  35  82 /   5   5   5   0
El Morro........................  37  77  37  78 /   5  10  10   5
Grants..........................  37  80  37  82 /   5  10  10   5
Quemado.........................  39  78  39  79 /  10   5  10  10
Magdalena.......................  50  79  50  79 /  10  10  10   5
Datil...........................  40  77  41  77 /  10  10  10  10
Reserve.........................  40  82  40  85 /  10  10   5   5
Glenwood........................  52  87  50  88 /  10  10  10   5
Chama...........................  39  72  39  74 /   5  10   5   0
Los Alamos......................  53  74  53  77 /   5  10   5   0
Pecos...........................  46  78  46  77 /  10  10   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  42  72  41  74 /  10  10   5   0
Red River.......................  31  66  32  64 /   5  10   5   0
Angel Fire......................  22  70  21  70 /   5  10   5   0
Taos............................  39  76  39  77 /  10   5   5   0
Mora............................  41  74  41  76 /  10  10   5   0
Espanola........................  46  82  47  85 /  10   5   5   0
Santa Fe........................  48  77  48  78 /  10  10   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  45  81  46  82 /  10   5   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  82  54  85 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  84  56  86 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  85  47  87 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  84  52  86 /   5   0   0   0
Belen...........................  49  86  48  87 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  49  85  50  88 /   5   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  46  85  46  87 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  48  85  48  88 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  47  85  46  87 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  53  83  52  84 /   5   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  53  84  53  87 /   5   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  55  88  56  90 /  10   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  77  51  78 /   5   5   5   0
Tijeras.........................  52  80  52  80 /   5   5   5   0
Edgewood........................  49  80  49  82 /   5  10   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  82  39  83 /   5  10   5   0
Clines Corners..................  47  78  47  79 /  10  10  10   0
Mountainair.....................  49  81  49  81 /   5   5   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  48  81  47  81 /   5   5   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  55  83  56  85 /  10   5   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  40  77  45  77 /  10  10   5   5
Capulin.........................  42  76  43  76 /  10   5  10   0
Raton...........................  42  81  42  81 /  10   5  10   0
Springer........................  41  83  42  82 /  10   5  10   0
Las Vegas.......................  46  79  45  79 /  10  10  10   0
Clayton.........................  52  84  54  84 /   5   5   5   0
Roy.............................  48  81  49  80 /  10   5  10   0
Conchas.........................  51  89  51  87 /  10   0  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  53  86  52  85 /  10   5  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  52  87  49  87 /  10   0  10   0
Clovis..........................  56  90  55  90 /   0   0   5   0
Portales........................  56  90  54  91 /   0   0   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  53  90  52  89 /  10   5   5   0
Roswell.........................  57  93  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  55  87  56  87 /  10   5   5   0
Elk.............................  52  83  54  86 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...42