375 FXUS65 KABQ 091114 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 514 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 509 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025 - Moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding today increases to high on Tuesday. There will also be a low risk of urban flash flooding each afternoon. - A few storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts in central and eastern New Mexico Monday afternoon then in southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. - Temperatures will warm to the hottest values of the season thus far late next week and weekend, creating moderate to major heat risk in most lower elevation locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 221 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025 A ridge aloft over the Great Basin will be undercut by a weak shortwave moving across southern CA today. West northwest flow aloft will prevail over most of NM with stronger northwesterly speeds in northeastern areas of the state and eastern CO where another shortwave trough is forecast to drop in this afternoon. At the surface, the plains cold front was enhanced by convection, and the leading edge of the cool, moist airmass has surged westward across the eastern half of NM and is now making its way toward the Continental Divide. Dewpoints in the eastern half of NM are on the rise with areas as far west as Farmington, Grants, and the Very Large Array expected to see a spike by dawn. Low stratus clouds will also continue to expand over many eastern areas through dawn, and the gusty east canyon wind in ABQ will persist for a couple hours after dawn when it will veer and weaken. The pronounced moisture increase (PWATs of roughly 0.75 to 1.0 from the Divide to eastern NM) will yield a healthy crop of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Much of this area will observe southeasterly surface winds this afternoon, veering with height which will give healthy shear (0-6 km bulk shear of 25-35 kt) that will support supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and heavy downpours. Most high resolution models and CAMs indicate the northern mountains initiating first early this afternoon with numerous cells by mid afternoon, working their way into central valleys and the central and northeastern highlands and plains. By this evening, several multicellular clusters and likely an MCS will be rolling into the east central plains, exiting NM and into west TX before midnight. In addition to the severe threat, heavy rainfall is still projected for the Sangre de Cristos, and the Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect for the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon wildfire burn scar today. Into Tuesday, the remnants of the CO shortwave will likely have trekked into the TX panhandle, although the NAM is a bit more sluggish, keeping it in northeastern NM and only slowly ejecting it through the afternoon. The other upper level feature of interest will be the southern CA shortwave which will be moving into southwestern NM Tuesday. These will have to be monitored with potential subsidence on the backsides of these waves. Depending on the exact placement, shear will reduce with lighter speeds currently projected aloft. Otherwise, ample moisture will be remain in place Tuesday, plenty to support a robust crop of showers and storms, albeit with a bit less of a severe threat. Many CAMs are on board with an active storm coverage for Tuesday, but the latest HRRR and RRFS are indicating considerably less storms than their counterparts, so again the placement and character of the shortwaves (and the presence of any MCVs and antecedent cloud cover) will be big players for how active Tuesday is. For now, it looks as though both the HPCC and the Ruidoso area burn scars would succumb to high probabilities for storms, and another Flash Flood Watch will certainly be contemplated for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 221 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025 The dryline will get pushed eastward on Wednesday, with convective initiation likely occurring right around the central mountain chain. The burn scar flash flood risk will be lower than previously days, however soils will very likely be saturated from storms on Monday and Tuesday. Storms will also be moving off the high terrain faster due to strengthening westerly flow which is good news for these areas. Meanwhile, LIs remain low (-1C to -3C) in western NM so dry lightning could be a threat, particularly over the Continental Divide as drier air pushes in from the west. Thursday will be even less stormy, but a shortwave grazing the northeast corner of the state could provide enough shear for the development of a few severe storms there. Models are in good agreement that the Monsoon High will nudge its way northward into the desert southwest Friday into the weekend, bringing hotter temperatures and lower precipitation chances. With the increased model agreement, the NBM is showing higher probabilities of reaching 100F for many lower elevation locations. For example, Farmington has an 83% chance of reaching 100F on Sunday, with Socorro and Roswell at 97% and 64% respectively. These probabilities are higher in central and western NM since the dryline should keep higher dewpoints across the east during this time period. Max H5 heights of 593 to 597dam underneath the ridge suggest it won`t be enough to squash all convection so a few slow- moving storms could develop each day over the central mountain chain Friday through the early part of the following week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 509 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Low stratus clouds can be seen on satellite imagery across northeastern New Mexico and south central portions of the state as a cool, moist airmass pushes westward. MVFR (1,000 to 3,000 ft) ceilings will persist through dawn with isolated pockets of IFR (less than 1,000 ft) ceilings. East winds will remain gusty through gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain, occasionally hitting 25 kt at KABQ through 09/1600UTC. All the moisture moving into place will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly from the Continental Divide eastward, but a few virga (evaporating rainfall) showers or dry thunderstorms will develop between the Divide and the New Mexico- Arizona border. All storms will be capable of producing gusty and potentially damaging downburst winds with large hail and heavier downpours being a threat in central to eastern areas. By this evening, storms will be concentrating over the eastern half of New Mexico with cells rolling eastward through the late evening. Most of the storms should have exited the state by midnight tonight with just a few stragglers lingering afterwards. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Todays weather will undergo significant changes that are coming about as cooler, moist air has surged westward. This has led to a gusty gap/canyon wind in vulnerable central areas that will persist through the morning. Substantial increases in moisture from the east will then lead to the development of new storms farther west into the Rio Grande valley and even toward the Continental Divide and AZ border this afternoon. Numerous storms are forecast east of the Continental Divide today through the evening with several strong to severe cells capable of hail, damaging winds, and heavy downpours. There are still concerns for dry thunderstorms/virga on the western fringe of the moisture, generally west of the Continental Divide today where new wildfire ignitions are expected from lightning. Moisture will remain in place on Tuesday with numerous showers and thunderstorms redeveloping, particularly over the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain and nearby highlands. Many areas will receive soaking rainfall east of the Divide, but areas to the west will observe lesser amounts from inefficient, or drier storms. Gusty outflows from storms will be the primary wind concern Tuesday, as prevailing winds will tend to stay light to moderate (5-15 mph). Less storms are forecast for Wednesday as subtle drying ensues. After cooling below normal today and Tuesday, temperatures will start to rebound closer to normal on Wednesday, particularly in western and central zones with afternoon humidity plummeting to less than 15 percent in far western zones again. The drier and hotter trend will continue into the remainder of the week and the weekend with isolated to scattered storms on Thursday becoming fewer and fewer each day. Temperatures will climb above normal by Friday and the weekend with the western half of NM observing minimum humidity of less than 10 percent daily. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 90 57 88 56 / 10 10 20 0 Dulce........................... 81 44 81 43 / 50 20 50 10 Cuba............................ 82 51 80 50 / 60 30 50 20 Gallup.......................... 86 49 83 47 / 20 20 30 10 El Morro........................ 82 51 79 49 / 30 30 50 10 Grants.......................... 83 50 82 48 / 40 30 60 20 Quemado......................... 85 53 83 51 / 30 20 50 10 Magdalena....................... 84 55 80 55 / 50 40 80 20 Datil........................... 83 51 78 51 / 50 30 70 20 Reserve......................... 91 49 87 49 / 20 10 40 10 Glenwood........................ 95 53 91 54 / 10 10 40 5 Chama........................... 74 43 72 43 / 70 30 60 10 Los Alamos...................... 74 54 75 54 / 80 40 70 20 Pecos........................... 74 50 74 50 / 80 50 80 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 46 75 47 / 80 30 60 10 Red River....................... 65 40 67 40 / 80 30 60 10 Angel Fire...................... 67 35 69 35 / 90 30 60 10 Taos............................ 76 45 77 45 / 80 30 60 10 Mora............................ 68 45 70 45 / 80 40 70 20 Espanola........................ 82 53 82 53 / 70 40 60 20 Santa Fe........................ 79 54 77 54 / 70 50 70 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 84 53 81 53 / 70 50 60 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 85 60 83 59 / 50 50 60 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 87 62 84 60 / 40 40 50 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 89 55 86 55 / 40 40 40 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 88 60 85 59 / 40 40 40 20 Belen........................... 90 59 87 57 / 40 40 50 20 Bernalillo...................... 88 58 85 57 / 50 40 40 20 Bosque Farms.................... 89 56 86 55 / 40 40 50 20 Corrales........................ 89 58 86 58 / 40 40 40 20 Los Lunas....................... 89 58 87 57 / 40 40 50 20 Placitas........................ 84 58 81 57 / 50 40 50 20 Rio Rancho...................... 87 60 84 59 / 40 40 40 20 Socorro......................... 93 61 90 61 / 40 40 70 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 78 53 77 53 / 50 50 60 20 Tijeras......................... 80 54 79 54 / 50 40 60 20 Edgewood........................ 77 51 77 50 / 50 50 70 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 49 78 48 / 50 40 70 20 Clines Corners.................. 73 50 73 50 / 50 50 70 30 Mountainair..................... 79 51 79 51 / 50 50 70 30 Gran Quivira.................... 79 51 79 51 / 50 50 70 40 Carrizozo....................... 86 58 83 57 / 40 40 80 40 Ruidoso......................... 75 50 74 50 / 50 30 90 40 Capulin......................... 70 47 74 48 / 80 30 30 5 Raton........................... 75 47 79 48 / 80 30 40 5 Springer........................ 75 49 79 50 / 80 30 50 10 Las Vegas....................... 70 48 73 48 / 80 40 70 20 Clayton......................... 77 55 79 56 / 40 30 10 5 Roy............................. 74 52 74 53 / 70 40 30 20 Conchas......................... 81 58 80 58 / 50 40 50 30 Santa Rosa...................... 79 56 79 56 / 50 50 60 30 Tucumcari....................... 79 56 80 57 / 40 40 40 30 Clovis.......................... 79 59 81 58 / 40 40 50 50 Portales........................ 80 58 82 58 / 40 40 60 50 Fort Sumner..................... 81 58 83 58 / 50 40 70 50 Roswell......................... 84 64 87 63 / 30 30 70 50 Picacho......................... 78 57 80 56 / 50 30 80 40 Elk............................. 77 55 79 53 / 50 40 80 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214- 215-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...52