375
FXUS65 KABQ 091114 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
514 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 509 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

- Moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding today increases to
  high on Tuesday. There will also be a low risk of urban flash
  flooding each afternoon.

- A few storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts in
  central and eastern New Mexico Monday afternoon then in
  southeastern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon.

- Temperatures will warm to the hottest values of the season thus
  far late next week and weekend, creating moderate to major heat
  risk in most lower elevation locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

A ridge aloft over the Great Basin will be undercut by a weak
shortwave moving across southern CA today. West northwest flow aloft
will prevail over most of NM with stronger northwesterly speeds in
northeastern areas of the state and eastern CO where another
shortwave trough is forecast to drop in this afternoon. At the
surface, the plains cold front was enhanced by convection, and the
leading edge of the cool, moist airmass has surged westward across
the eastern half of NM and is now making its way toward the
Continental Divide. Dewpoints in the eastern half of NM are on the
rise with areas as far west as Farmington, Grants, and the Very
Large Array expected to see a spike by dawn. Low stratus clouds will
also continue to expand over many eastern areas through dawn, and
the gusty east canyon wind in ABQ will persist for a couple hours
after dawn when it will veer and weaken.

The pronounced moisture increase (PWATs of roughly 0.75 to 1.0 from
the Divide to eastern NM) will yield a healthy crop of strong to
severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Much of this area will observe
southeasterly surface winds this afternoon, veering with height
which will give healthy shear (0-6 km bulk shear of 25-35 kt) that
will support supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
heavy downpours. Most high resolution models and CAMs indicate the
northern mountains initiating first early this afternoon with
numerous cells by mid afternoon, working their way into central
valleys and the central and northeastern highlands and plains. By
this evening, several multicellular clusters and likely an MCS will
be rolling into the east central plains, exiting NM and into west TX
before midnight. In addition to the severe threat, heavy rainfall is
still projected for the Sangre de Cristos, and the Flash Flood Watch
will remain in effect for the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon wildfire burn
scar today.

Into Tuesday, the remnants of the CO shortwave will likely have
trekked into the TX panhandle, although the NAM is a bit more
sluggish, keeping it in northeastern NM and only slowly ejecting it
through the afternoon. The other upper level feature of interest
will be the southern CA shortwave which will be moving into
southwestern NM Tuesday. These will have to be monitored with
potential subsidence on the backsides of these waves. Depending on
the exact placement, shear will reduce with lighter speeds currently
projected aloft. Otherwise, ample moisture will be remain in place
Tuesday, plenty to support a robust crop of showers and storms,
albeit with a bit less of a severe threat. Many CAMs are on board
with an active storm coverage for Tuesday, but the latest HRRR and
RRFS are indicating considerably less storms than their
counterparts, so again the placement and character of the shortwaves
(and the presence of any MCVs and antecedent cloud cover) will be
big players for how active Tuesday is. For now, it looks as though
both the HPCC and the Ruidoso area burn scars would succumb to high
probabilities for storms, and another Flash Flood Watch will
certainly be contemplated for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 221 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

The dryline will get pushed eastward on Wednesday, with convective
initiation likely occurring right around the central mountain chain.
The burn scar flash flood risk will be lower than previously days,
however soils will very likely be saturated from storms on Monday
and Tuesday. Storms will also be moving off the high terrain faster
due to strengthening westerly flow which is good news for these
areas. Meanwhile, LIs remain low (-1C to -3C) in western NM so dry
lightning could be a threat, particularly over the Continental
Divide as drier air pushes in from the west. Thursday will be even
less stormy, but a shortwave grazing the northeast corner of the
state could provide enough shear for the development of a few severe
storms there.

Models are in good agreement that the Monsoon High will nudge its
way northward into the desert southwest Friday into the weekend,
bringing hotter temperatures and lower precipitation chances. With
the increased model agreement, the NBM is showing higher
probabilities of reaching 100F for many lower elevation locations.
For example, Farmington has an 83% chance of reaching 100F on
Sunday, with Socorro and Roswell at 97% and 64% respectively. These
probabilities are higher in central and western NM since the dryline
should keep higher dewpoints across the east during this time
period. Max H5 heights of 593 to 597dam underneath the ridge
suggest it won`t be enough to squash all convection so a few slow-
moving storms could develop each day over the central mountain
chain Friday through the early part of the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Low stratus clouds can be seen on satellite imagery across
northeastern New Mexico and south central portions of the state as
a cool, moist airmass pushes westward. MVFR (1,000 to 3,000 ft)
ceilings will persist through dawn with isolated pockets of IFR
(less than 1,000 ft) ceilings. East winds will remain gusty
through gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain,
occasionally hitting 25 kt at KABQ through 09/1600UTC. All the
moisture moving into place will lead to numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly from the Continental Divide
eastward, but a few virga (evaporating rainfall) showers or dry
thunderstorms will develop between the Divide and the New Mexico-
Arizona border. All storms will be capable of producing gusty and
potentially damaging downburst winds with large hail and heavier
downpours being a threat in central to eastern areas. By this
evening, storms will be concentrating over the eastern half of New
Mexico with cells rolling eastward through the late evening. Most
of the storms should have exited the state by midnight tonight
with just a few stragglers lingering afterwards.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 AM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Todays weather will undergo significant changes that are coming
about as cooler, moist air has surged westward. This has led to a
gusty gap/canyon wind in vulnerable central areas that will persist
through the morning. Substantial increases in moisture from the east
will then lead to the development of new storms farther west into
the Rio Grande valley and even toward the Continental Divide and AZ
border this afternoon. Numerous storms are forecast east of the
Continental Divide today through the evening with several strong to
severe cells capable of hail, damaging winds, and heavy downpours.
There are still concerns for dry thunderstorms/virga on the western
fringe of the moisture, generally west of the Continental Divide
today where new wildfire ignitions are expected from lightning.
Moisture will remain in place on Tuesday with numerous showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping, particularly over the Continental Divide
and the central mountain chain and nearby highlands. Many areas will
receive soaking rainfall east of the Divide, but areas to the west
will observe lesser amounts from inefficient, or drier storms. Gusty
outflows from storms will be the primary wind concern Tuesday, as
prevailing winds will tend to stay light to moderate (5-15 mph).

Less storms are forecast for Wednesday as subtle drying ensues.
After cooling below normal today and Tuesday, temperatures will
start to rebound closer to normal on Wednesday, particularly in
western and central zones with afternoon humidity plummeting to less
than 15 percent in far western zones again. The drier and hotter
trend will continue into the remainder of the week and the weekend
with isolated to scattered storms on Thursday becoming fewer and
fewer each day. Temperatures will climb above normal by Friday and
the weekend with the western half of NM observing minimum humidity
of less than 10 percent daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  90  57  88  56 /  10  10  20   0
Dulce...........................  81  44  81  43 /  50  20  50  10
Cuba............................  82  51  80  50 /  60  30  50  20
Gallup..........................  86  49  83  47 /  20  20  30  10
El Morro........................  82  51  79  49 /  30  30  50  10
Grants..........................  83  50  82  48 /  40  30  60  20
Quemado.........................  85  53  83  51 /  30  20  50  10
Magdalena.......................  84  55  80  55 /  50  40  80  20
Datil...........................  83  51  78  51 /  50  30  70  20
Reserve.........................  91  49  87  49 /  20  10  40  10
Glenwood........................  95  53  91  54 /  10  10  40   5
Chama...........................  74  43  72  43 /  70  30  60  10
Los Alamos......................  74  54  75  54 /  80  40  70  20
Pecos...........................  74  50  74  50 /  80  50  80  20
Cerro/Questa....................  73  46  75  47 /  80  30  60  10
Red River.......................  65  40  67  40 /  80  30  60  10
Angel Fire......................  67  35  69  35 /  90  30  60  10
Taos............................  76  45  77  45 /  80  30  60  10
Mora............................  68  45  70  45 /  80  40  70  20
Espanola........................  82  53  82  53 /  70  40  60  20
Santa Fe........................  79  54  77  54 /  70  50  70  20
Santa Fe Airport................  84  53  81  53 /  70  50  60  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  85  60  83  59 /  50  50  60  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  87  62  84  60 /  40  40  50  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  89  55  86  55 /  40  40  40  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  88  60  85  59 /  40  40  40  20
Belen...........................  90  59  87  57 /  40  40  50  20
Bernalillo......................  88  58  85  57 /  50  40  40  20
Bosque Farms....................  89  56  86  55 /  40  40  50  20
Corrales........................  89  58  86  58 /  40  40  40  20
Los Lunas.......................  89  58  87  57 /  40  40  50  20
Placitas........................  84  58  81  57 /  50  40  50  20
Rio Rancho......................  87  60  84  59 /  40  40  40  20
Socorro.........................  93  61  90  61 /  40  40  70  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  78  53  77  53 /  50  50  60  20
Tijeras.........................  80  54  79  54 /  50  40  60  20
Edgewood........................  77  51  77  50 /  50  50  70  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  78  49  78  48 /  50  40  70  20
Clines Corners..................  73  50  73  50 /  50  50  70  30
Mountainair.....................  79  51  79  51 /  50  50  70  30
Gran Quivira....................  79  51  79  51 /  50  50  70  40
Carrizozo.......................  86  58  83  57 /  40  40  80  40
Ruidoso.........................  75  50  74  50 /  50  30  90  40
Capulin.........................  70  47  74  48 /  80  30  30   5
Raton...........................  75  47  79  48 /  80  30  40   5
Springer........................  75  49  79  50 /  80  30  50  10
Las Vegas.......................  70  48  73  48 /  80  40  70  20
Clayton.........................  77  55  79  56 /  40  30  10   5
Roy.............................  74  52  74  53 /  70  40  30  20
Conchas.........................  81  58  80  58 /  50  40  50  30
Santa Rosa......................  79  56  79  56 /  50  50  60  30
Tucumcari.......................  79  56  80  57 /  40  40  40  30
Clovis..........................  79  59  81  58 /  40  40  50  50
Portales........................  80  58  82  58 /  40  40  60  50
Fort Sumner.....................  81  58  83  58 /  50  40  70  50
Roswell.........................  84  64  87  63 /  30  30  70  50
Picacho.........................  78  57  80  56 /  50  30  80  40
Elk.............................  77  55  79  53 /  50  40  80  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214-
215-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...52