387
FXUS64 KEPZ 170503
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1003 PM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 832 PM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

 - Dry conditions through the week ahead with no rain chances
   into the Christmas holiday.

 - We will have warmer temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday,
   then even warmer temperatures through the coming weekend.
   Lowland highs in the lower to mid seventies will be near daily
   records for mid December.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 832 PM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

An upper level ridge to our west and an upper level trough to our
east is giving us a dry north or northwest flow across the New
Mexico. This pattern looks to continue through Friday so we won`t
see any chances for rain and high temperatures will run 10 to 15
degrees above average. For the weekend, we will have a zonal west
flow aloft, so that will continue our dry conditions and warm us
up even more, with high temperatures running 15 to 20 degrees
above average. We will threaten record high temperatures for
Friday through the weekend and into the start of next week. The
reason for the continued very warm weather to start next week, is
an upper level ridge that will settle into south texas. The ridge
will be close enough to continue our dry conditions and keep our
high temperatures running 15 to 20 degrees above average. No white
Christmas in the forecast for us, we will be dry with high
temperatures continuing to run well above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 832 PM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

A dry northwest flow aloft will keep our ceilings unlimited
tonight and all day on Wednesday. At the surface, our winds will
be light from the north and then the light winds will continue on
Wednesday, but they will come around to the west. The unlimited
ceilings and light winds look to continue well into Wednesday
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 937 AM MST Tue Dec 16 2025

The next five days will feature near record warmth, sunny or
mostly sunny skies with very dry conditions. Min RH values will
dip well into the teens each afternoon. Winds throughout the
period will be very light, topping out under 10 MPH for most
locations. This pattern will keep vent rates poor in the lowlands
with fair to good in the mountains, especially the Northern Gila
where winds will be a little stronger.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  41  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            65  40  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               66  36  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               66  35  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               51  34  50  34 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    66  40  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              65  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   71  37  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                67  34  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  43  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                69  31  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             71  39  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               61  42  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   69  39  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             66  36  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           68  44  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            66  33  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    71  35  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 70  43  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                64  34  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  66  39  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                61  35  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 58  32  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  67  37  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                69  42  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                66  34  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             65  33  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   68  37  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    71  31  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               67  35  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  67  42  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   70  37  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  69  37  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           72  39  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               66  43  68  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice