278
FXUS64 KEPZ 081119
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
519 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot conditions through the new week ahead with high
temperatures well above normal; Sunday being the hottest day
- Slight cool down Tuesday through Thursday due to increasing
rain chances.
- Best chance for rain midweek is over the mountains and east
of the Rio Grande Valley
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1024 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025
Sub-tropical jet extending from the northern Baja across New Mexico
to the Gulf state. Slight bit of layered moisture to the south of
the jet, and GFS does show some of that moisture eventually drifting
up to the CWA by Sunday afternoon. Nothing to write home about; just
high level clouds. The story for Sunday is the heat, with a Heat
Advisory in effect from noon to 8 pm. NBM deterministic has the high
temp at El Paso at 104 deg. You have to go up to the 95th percent
before El Paso hits 105 or greater.
Still the models all tend to be a degree or two on the low side.
Hence 105 deg is in the grids-meaning low end advisory criteria.
Models all quite similar with the dry-line, drawing it back into the
CWA Sunday night and Monday. Thus POPs are warranted for Monday
afternoon/evening, mainly over Otero and Hudspeth Counties. The
models all bring the dry-line further west into the CWA Tuesday,
allowing for the chance of rain to spread to all the counties.
Thursday might be transition day as the dry-line gradually pushes
back east. This might limit Thursday convection to the far eastern
CWA.
Friday into the weekend...dry-line mostly east of the CWA but does
occasionally drift back into the far eastern CWA. As of now left
mentionable POPs out but could always be placed back in with more
consistent model moisture. Strong building ridge over the area along
with very warm 850 temps, suggest lowland temps well into triple
digits again.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025
VMC through forecast period under southwest flow aloft. Skies SKC
along International Border with FEW150 further into central NM
this evening. Surface winds 250-280 at 10 to 15 knots this
afternoon. Peak gusts around 25 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1224 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025
Dry and hot conditions expected tomorrow and Monday. Min RH values
will be 3-8% in the lowlands and 10-12% in the Sacramento Mtns
tomorrow. Expect very similar min RH values Monday, but
thunderstorm chances in the Sacramento Mtns could raise min RH
values above critical thresholds but single digits remain
elsewhere. The best chances for rain will be in the Sacramento
Mtns Tuesday but isolated to scattered coverage in the Gila,
north and east of Las Cruces, and east of El Paso. Lingering
thunderstorm chances Wednesday can be expected in the same
general area as Tuesday but lesser coverage. Drier conditions
towards the end of the week. Critical min RHs expected everywhere
each day where precipitation chances are not expected to occur.
Our saving grace will be the light afternoon breezes each day
(5-15 mph) and light drainage winds overnight. Ventilation rates
will be good to excellent each day except tomorrow and Thursday
where rates will be excellent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 104 71 101 70 / 0 0 0 10
Sierra Blanca 100 64 96 64 / 0 0 10 30
Las Cruces 100 63 96 63 / 0 0 0 10
Alamogordo 99 63 96 61 / 0 0 10 30
Cloudcroft 77 49 73 47 / 0 0 30 40
Truth or Consequences 99 67 94 65 / 0 0 10 20
Silver City 90 59 90 57 / 0 0 10 10
Deming 101 61 99 63 / 0 0 0 10
Lordsburg 96 59 96 61 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 101 71 98 70 / 0 0 0 10
Dell City 103 64 96 65 / 0 0 10 30
Fort Hancock 106 67 103 69 / 0 0 10 20
Loma Linda 95 66 92 63 / 0 0 10 20
Fabens 104 66 101 69 / 0 0 0 10
Santa Teresa 100 65 97 66 / 0 0 0 10
White Sands HQ 100 71 98 70 / 0 0 0 20
Jornada Range 100 61 96 61 / 0 0 10 20
Hatch 102 61 99 63 / 0 0 10 10
Columbus 101 68 99 67 / 0 0 0 10
Orogrande 98 64 95 64 / 0 0 10 30
Mayhill 90 51 81 52 / 0 0 40 40
Mescalero 88 53 83 51 / 0 0 30 30
Timberon 86 51 81 50 / 0 0 20 30
Winston 91 54 86 50 / 0 0 20 20
Hillsboro 98 63 95 59 / 0 0 10 20
Spaceport 99 60 95 59 / 0 0 10 20
Lake Roberts 93 53 91 52 / 0 0 10 10
Hurley 94 58 93 56 / 0 0 0 10
Cliff 97 57 96 57 / 0 0 0 10
Mule Creek 93 57 92 56 / 0 0 0 10
Faywood 95 61 92 60 / 0 0 0 10
Animas 98 61 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 98 60 96 61 / 0 0 0 10
Antelope Wells 98 61 96 61 / 0 0 0 10
Cloverdale 93 61 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt