498
FXUS64 KMAF 122307
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
507 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 505 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

- Staying below average and dry Monday through Wednesday.

- Breezy conditions developing on Friday with low (<20%) chances
  for precipitation.

- Pattern shifts back to being colder next weekend. Low (<20%)
  chances for precipitation. Expect this part of the forecast to
  change in the coming days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Quiet and cold weather continue through the remainder of the weekend
into the beginning of the work week. A developing upper-level low
pressure near the Great Lakes pushed a cold front south through the
area earlier this morning. This has resulted in cooler temperatures
as most struggle to warm through the mid 40s and low 50s this
afternoon. Thankfully, decreasing wind speeds and a fair amount of
sunshine limits the feel of this chill. Surface high pressure is
expected to sink into our region tonight alongside mostly clear
skies. The combination of these conditions leads to excellent
radiational cooling and a frigid Monday morning. Most locations see
temperatures fall back through the 20s with a few locations seeing
temperatures as low as the upper teens. A stationary upper-level
trough near the Four Corners on Monday helps to return winds to
southerly by Monday afternoon, but this does not aid temperatures
initially. Another chilly afternoon in the mid 40s to low 50s is
expected under mostly sunny skies. Thankfully, a warming trend
starts the long-term forecast.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Heading into Tuesday, quasi-zonal(west to east) flow aloft and
southerly flow at the surface begins the slow warm up into the
middle of the week. Highs each afternoon inch closer and closer to
normal with most locations in the mid to upper 50s by Thursday. Lows
follow similarly and move to near freezing for most with the coldest
spots still dipping into the upper 20s. Friday looks to be the
warmest day of the week as an upper level ridge pushes up from
Northern Mexico and southwesterly flow at the surface bring
temperatures above normal. Ensemble guidance continues to keep
widespread low(~20%) chances for precipitation late Thursday into
Friday, but given the time of year and uncertainty in the broader
pattern, expect this to change. A cold front looks to pass through
the area late Friday and into Saturday. Another cold stretch is
signaled in long range guidance, but details remain fuzzy on how
cold and how long the cold will stick around. Precipitation chances
for that time are also low(~20% or less).

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds remain
northeasterly this evening through tomorrow morning. Winds back
around to southeasterly tomorrow afternoon for all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               25  49  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 22  46  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   31  53  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            26  52  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           25  40  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    23  45  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    22  50  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     26  48  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   26  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     26  49  26  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...91