860 FXUS64 KMAF 021139 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 639 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Near daily rain chances arrive today and remain through late this week. A few strong to severe storms may be possible each afternoon through mid-week. Currently, damaging winds look to be the main concern. - Hot conditions last through the first part of the week. A brief cool down arrives Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures heat up again. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 As we begin a new work week, the weather pattern becomes relatively active. Today, an upper-level ridge shifts eastward and a shortwave trough swings over the Desert Southwest. Rain chances increase as the upper trough approaches and a surface lee trough develops, providing a source of lift and helping to sharpen up the dryline. Mid-level moisture may trigger shower and storm development near the higher terrain later this morning. Rain chances increase over the eastern half of our region later this afternoon as the lee trough becomes the focus for shower/storm development. A few storms will have the potential to become severe, with the main threat being damaging winds and, to a lesser extent, large hail. Rain chances taper off west to east heading into the overnight hours. Otherwise, highs this afternoon are forecast to generally reach the 90s, with 80s over the mountains and 100s along the Rio Grande. Tonight, temperatures bottom out in the 60s for most, while 70s hang around near the river valleys. Tuesday, subtle upper ridging promotes highs generally in the 90s and overall drier conditions. However, changes are on the horizon as a cold front begins to sweep down from the north around late afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 A cold front gradually makes its way southward Tuesday night and into Wednesday, eventually stalling out somewhere within our region early Thursday morning. Some showers/storms may develop ahead of the approaching front and the dryline as it translates westward late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Low (10%-30%) rain chances will lie over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos during this time frame. Again, a storm or two could become severe, with the main threats remaining large hail and damaging winds. Wednesday see a similar setup with similar severe weather threats. On a positive note, temperatures behind the front cool to the 50s in our northern counties to start the day Wednesday, 60s expected for most, and 70s near the Rio Grande. Wednesday`s highs look fairly mild, with 80s forecast over much of the region, while our southern counties stay in the 90s. With the frontal boundary hovering over our area through early Friday, at least some type of rain chance remains in the forecast until late this week. Storm development will depend on the exact location of the stationary front and the dryline each afternoon. If luck is on our side, many locations may receive some much welcomed rainfall. Temperatures warm back up and rain chances begin to diminish on Friday courtesy of an upper-level ridge approaching out of Mexico. Highs in the 90s become more prominent Friday afternoon, then triple digits enter the mix Saturday. By Sunday, highs beyond the century mark expand nearly areawide. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Current radar is showing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms moving into the Big Bend and heading northeast towards the TAF sites. Models show this activity may decrease but more is expected to develop after 18Z and is included in the TX TAF sites as PROB30 from 18-03Z. A few TS could be severe. Otherwise VFR conditions and modest occasionally gust winds are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 96 70 94 60 / 30 60 10 20 Carlsbad 94 68 94 63 / 30 20 0 10 Dryden 97 73 99 73 / 40 40 10 10 Fort Stockton 93 70 95 66 / 60 50 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 84 64 85 61 / 30 10 0 0 Hobbs 91 64 90 56 / 30 40 0 10 Marfa 89 62 88 61 / 40 30 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 94 70 94 62 / 40 60 0 20 Odessa 93 69 93 61 / 40 60 0 10 Wink 94 69 95 64 / 40 40 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...10