771
FXUS64 KMAF 220735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
235 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Hazardous heat continues today across the region, with highs
  largely between 100 to 110 degrees. Be sure to drink plenty of
  fluids and take frequent breaks in the shade if outdoors!

- Isolated storm chances (10-20%) for portions of the Permian
  Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and far southeast New Mexico this
  afternoon and evening. A storm or two may be severe with
  damaging winds and hail up to size of quarters being the main
  threats.

- Triple digit heat continues through the extended, with low (< 30%)
  chance of showers/storms across the higher terrain and northern
  Permian Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Current satellite and radar imagery shows a complex of thunderstorms
moving southeast across portions of Oklahoma. An outflow boundary
produced by these storms will make its way into parts of southeast
New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin by this morning. This
feature may provide slightly cooler temperatures for the
northernmost portions of the area, though highs are still expected
to span in the triple digits for these locations. In the upper-
levels, a ridge of high pressure persists over the region,
promoting hazardous heat for this afternoon and early evening.
There exists a low (10-20%) chance for isolated thunderstorm
development across the Permian Basin, far southeast New Mexico,
and Lower Trans Pecos this afternoon and early evening thanks to
the aforementioned boundary setting up in these locations. High
resolution guidance also depicts a Mesoscale Convective Vortex
(MCV) developing somewhere near the Pecos River to portions of far
southeast New Mexico. Location of storm development will highly
depend on where the outflow boundary, dryline, and MCV sets up
this afternoon. Forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles,
strong surface instability ( > 3000 J/kg), very high DCAPE values
( > 1500 J/kg), modest mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient
deep- layer shear. These parameters indicate the potential threat
of dry microbursts producing damaging winds and hail up to the
size of quarters. The greatest areas of concern for strong to
severe storms will be over portions of the Permian Basin.

Tonight, a low-level jet develops over the region providing breezy
winds and low temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s regionwide. The
ridge of upper high pressure continues to stay over southeast New
Mexico and west Texas tomorrow. As a result, most locations once
again are going to experience triple digit heat. Isolated storms
look to form mainly over portions of the Guadalupe Mountains during
the afternoon due to shortwave disturbances from the flow aloft.
These storms are not expected to be severe. The same hot and mainly
dry weather pattern continues heading into the long-term period.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Intense heat continues throughout the Long Term period as large-
scale sinking motion associated with upper-level ridging persists.
Triple digit heat (except 90s in the mountains) is expected for most
each day, with highs between 100 and 105 being commonplace.
Temperatures are likely to exceed 105 degrees each day along the Rio
Grande and Upper Trans Pecos, with highs topping out between 110 and
115 degrees in low-lying areas of the Big Bend. There is some model
disagreement on how much the aforementioned ridge builds into our
area or becomes displaced farther to the west during the latter half
of the week. Regardless, triple digit heat is forecast to continue
for most. Be sure to exercise heat safety precautions this week as
there is a serious threat of heat illness if you are outside for an
extended period of time. It is also encouraged to check on those who
are more vulnerable to the heat such as the elderly or small
children.

Aside form the heat, breezy conditions are expected each afternoon,
mainly across the eastern half of our CWA due to daytime mixing. In
addition to the mixing, surface low  pressure over the panhandle
induces a relatively tight pressure gradient. Breezy conditions
continue each evening and accelerate due to the nocturnal low-level
jet (LLJ). Weak disturbances in the flow combined with convective
boundaries and the low-level jet provide low (up to 20%) chances of
showers/storms, mainly across the higher terrain and/or far northern
zones each afternoon and evening. Though the better chances (up
to 30%) currently look to be late this week and into the weekend.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Winds will be a little
tricky, as models bring convective boundaries south into the area
overnight and Monday, yet differ on timing. At any rate, winds
will remain relatively light, and can be adjusted as needed. Forecast
soundings suggest convective temps Monday will be too high for cu
everywhere but KMAF, which may see a few cu ~ 9 kft AGL during
the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              107  75 103  74 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                106  72 107  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  104  75 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           108  73 104  72 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           98  71  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                   106  70 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                   101  64  98  64 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport    107  74 102  73 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                  107  74 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    109  74 105  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10 PM
     CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Borden-Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above
     7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-
     Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Central Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...99