635 FXUS65 KABQ 110604 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1204 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1150 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Hazardous heat continues for the northwest plateau and Albuquerque Metro through Friday. - There is a marginal risk for severe storms across northeast and east central NM this evening and again Friday, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. - A backdoor front will recharge moisture and lead to an increase in daily rounds of storms this weekend into next week, with locally heavy rainfall possible. The threat for burn scar flash flooding will be elevated this weekend through much of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 A 596dam 500mb high is centered over the northern Baja Peninsula and extending a ridge axis over central NM, bringing drier conditions and another day of moderate heat risk to to much of western NM. The westerlies are intruding across northwest and north central NM on the north side of the ridge axis and will result in breezy/gusty conditions by mid/late afternoon given deep layer mixing. Meanwhile across northeast NM, sufficient deep layer shear and instability exist for a few strong to potentially severe storms, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts into the evening hours. Similar setup Friday, but with dry westerlies penetrating further east into the state. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Friday now for the Farmington area and Albuquerque Metro, with highs forecast to reach to between 100-102 degrees. Both 0-6km bulk shear and surface based instability are forecast to increase slightly Friday compared to today across northeast NM and a few strong to severe storms are more likely by afternoon, with storms dropping southeast near the NM/TX border well into the evening hours. The combination of a backdoor front and thunderstorm outflow will send low level moisture west to the central mountain chain late Friday night and result in a gusty east canyon wind into the RGV by sunrise, though speeds are forecast to remain well below advisory criteria at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 PWATs will get a nice bump across central NM on Saturday from moist low level easterly flow. Saturday is looking rather active now, with storms forecast to initiate along the Continental Divide and central mountain chain. Northwest flow aloft will steer storms slowly southeast into moist easterly low level inflow, leading to an increased threat for locally heavy rainfall. In addition, modest instability and 0-6km bulk shear will bring a threat for strong to potentially severe storms to central NM Saturday afternoon and evening. The flow aloft will change from northwest on Saturday to northeast on Sunday as the upper high drifts north from the Baja and expands, allowing an inverted trough to move southwest into southeast NM. With plenty of moisture in place, Sunday will be another active day and the threat for burn scar flash flooding will be back on the uptrend over the weekend. The inverted trough will get hung up over eastern NM early next week as an upper high builds up along the upper Gulf coast and balances out the upper high to our west. This setup will allow for continued good chances for thunderstorms and soaking rains given slow and erratic storm motion. Another backdoor front will move in next Thursday and recharge moisture for an uptrend in thunderstorms going into the following weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 High resolution models depict showers and thunderstorms exiting southeast and east central parts of the forecast area by 09Z this morning, but lingering over northeast areas until 11Z or so. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain eastward on Friday afternoon, then persist there through Friday night as a moist backdoor front pushes through the eastern plains. Some gusty virga showers will be in the mix from Taos southward to Carrizozo Friday afternoon, and a few of these will be capable of producing dry microburst wind gusts up to 45 KT. Farther east, isolated severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts over 50 KT and large hail Friday afternoon and evening. Late Friday night into early Saturday morning, low clouds east of the central mountain chain will produce areas of MVFR and IFR conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will prevail through Friday across northwest NM due to deep layer mixing of the westerlies and hot daytime temperatures. Otherwise, critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next seven days as moisture increases over the weekend and brings a resurgence of chances for wetting storms going through the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 59 99 60 96 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 46 92 46 91 / 0 0 0 40 Cuba............................ 57 93 55 89 / 0 0 0 40 Gallup.......................... 52 95 50 94 / 5 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 56 91 54 89 / 10 0 0 20 Grants.......................... 56 96 54 92 / 5 0 0 30 Quemado......................... 61 92 58 91 / 20 0 0 30 Magdalena....................... 68 94 63 89 / 20 0 0 50 Datil........................... 64 91 60 88 / 10 0 0 40 Reserve......................... 56 98 54 96 / 20 10 5 50 Glenwood........................ 62 101 60 99 / 20 10 10 50 Chama........................... 49 86 47 82 / 0 0 5 60 Los Alamos...................... 63 89 60 81 / 0 10 5 70 Pecos........................... 59 88 55 78 / 10 20 20 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 87 52 81 / 5 30 30 90 Red River....................... 46 78 43 71 / 10 40 40 90 Angel Fire...................... 40 80 39 73 / 5 40 40 90 Taos............................ 51 92 52 83 / 0 20 20 80 Mora............................ 52 83 49 73 / 5 40 30 80 Espanola........................ 59 97 58 90 / 0 0 10 60 Santa Fe........................ 63 92 60 83 / 10 10 20 80 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 97 58 86 / 5 5 10 70 Albuquerque Foothills........... 71 98 68 92 / 10 0 10 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 99 67 94 / 10 0 5 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 102 66 96 / 10 0 5 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 100 67 94 / 10 0 5 40 Belen........................... 67 102 63 96 / 10 0 5 30 Bernalillo...................... 66 101 65 95 / 10 0 5 50 Bosque Farms.................... 65 101 63 95 / 10 0 5 30 Corrales........................ 67 101 66 96 / 10 0 5 40 Los Lunas....................... 67 101 64 95 / 10 0 5 30 Placitas........................ 67 96 65 90 / 10 0 10 50 Rio Rancho...................... 67 100 66 94 / 10 0 5 40 Socorro......................... 72 104 68 99 / 20 0 5 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 92 58 86 / 10 0 10 60 Tijeras......................... 64 93 60 86 / 10 0 10 60 Edgewood........................ 57 93 56 84 / 10 0 10 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 93 55 84 / 10 0 10 60 Clines Corners.................. 59 87 56 76 / 10 10 10 70 Mountainair..................... 60 93 57 84 / 20 0 10 60 Gran Quivira.................... 61 93 58 83 / 20 5 10 60 Carrizozo....................... 67 97 65 89 / 20 10 10 60 Ruidoso......................... 63 90 58 79 / 20 20 10 70 Capulin......................... 54 81 52 71 / 50 50 70 80 Raton........................... 54 85 53 76 / 30 50 60 80 Springer........................ 54 88 55 77 / 20 50 60 80 Las Vegas....................... 54 85 53 75 / 10 30 30 80 Clayton......................... 60 89 60 77 / 60 20 80 60 Roy............................. 56 85 57 74 / 30 30 60 60 Conchas......................... 62 93 62 82 / 40 10 50 60 Santa Rosa...................... 62 91 60 79 / 40 10 30 60 Tucumcari....................... 61 90 60 80 / 40 5 60 50 Clovis.......................... 65 94 65 84 / 30 10 30 50 Portales........................ 66 96 65 86 / 30 10 30 50 Fort Sumner..................... 65 96 64 86 / 40 5 30 50 Roswell......................... 70 100 71 91 / 20 5 10 40 Picacho......................... 67 95 63 85 / 20 10 10 50 Elk............................. 66 95 61 83 / 10 20 10 60 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for NMZ201-207-219- 220. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...44