635
FXUS65 KABQ 110604 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1204 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

- Hazardous heat continues for the northwest plateau and
  Albuquerque Metro through Friday.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms across northeast and
  east central NM this evening and again Friday, with the main
  threat being damaging wind gusts.

- A backdoor front will recharge moisture and lead to an increase
  in daily rounds of storms this weekend into next week, with
  locally heavy rainfall possible. The threat for burn scar flash
  flooding will be elevated this weekend through much of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A 596dam 500mb high is centered over the northern Baja Peninsula
and extending a ridge axis over central NM, bringing drier
conditions and another day of moderate heat risk to to much of
western NM. The westerlies are intruding across northwest and
north central NM on the north side of the ridge axis and will
result in breezy/gusty conditions by mid/late afternoon given deep
layer mixing. Meanwhile across northeast NM, sufficient deep layer
shear and instability exist for a few strong to potentially severe
storms, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts into the
evening hours. Similar setup Friday, but with dry westerlies
penetrating further east into the state. A Heat Advisory is in
effect for Friday now for the Farmington area and Albuquerque
Metro, with highs forecast to reach to between 100-102 degrees.
Both 0-6km bulk shear and surface based instability are forecast
to increase slightly Friday compared to today across northeast NM
and a few strong to severe storms are more likely by afternoon,
with storms dropping southeast near the NM/TX border well into the
evening hours. The combination of a backdoor front and thunderstorm
outflow will send low level moisture west to the central mountain
chain late Friday night and result in a gusty east canyon wind
into the RGV by sunrise, though speeds are forecast to remain well
below advisory criteria at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

PWATs will get a nice bump across central NM on Saturday from
moist low level easterly flow. Saturday is looking rather active
now, with storms forecast to initiate along the Continental
Divide and central mountain chain. Northwest flow aloft will steer
storms slowly southeast into moist easterly low level inflow,
leading to an increased threat for locally heavy rainfall. In
addition, modest instability and 0-6km bulk shear will bring a
threat for strong to potentially severe storms to central NM
Saturday afternoon and evening. The flow aloft will change from
northwest on Saturday to northeast on Sunday as the upper high
drifts north from the Baja and expands, allowing an inverted
trough to move southwest into southeast NM. With plenty of
moisture in place, Sunday will be another active day and the
threat for burn scar flash flooding will be back on the uptrend
over the weekend. The inverted trough will get hung up over
eastern NM early next week as an upper high builds up along the
upper Gulf coast and balances out the upper high to our west. This
setup will allow for continued good chances for thunderstorms and
soaking rains given slow and erratic storm motion. Another
backdoor front will move in next Thursday and recharge moisture
for an uptrend in thunderstorms going into the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

High resolution models depict showers and thunderstorms exiting
southeast and east central parts of the forecast area by 09Z this
morning, but lingering over northeast areas until 11Z or so.
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor the
central mountain chain eastward on Friday afternoon, then persist
there through Friday night as a moist backdoor front pushes
through the eastern plains. Some gusty virga showers will be in
the mix from Taos southward to Carrizozo Friday afternoon, and
a few of these will be capable of producing dry microburst wind
gusts up to 45 KT. Farther east, isolated severe thunderstorms
will be capable of producing wind gusts over 50 KT and large
hail Friday afternoon and evening. Late Friday night into early
Saturday morning, low clouds east of the central mountain chain
will produce areas of MVFR and IFR conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will prevail
through Friday across northwest NM due to deep layer mixing of the
westerlies and hot daytime temperatures. Otherwise, critical fire
weather conditions are not forecast through the next seven days as
moisture increases over the weekend and brings a resurgence of
chances for wetting storms going through the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  99  60  96 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  46  92  46  91 /   0   0   0  40
Cuba............................  57  93  55  89 /   0   0   0  40
Gallup..........................  52  95  50  94 /   5   0   0   5
El Morro........................  56  91  54  89 /  10   0   0  20
Grants..........................  56  96  54  92 /   5   0   0  30
Quemado.........................  61  92  58  91 /  20   0   0  30
Magdalena.......................  68  94  63  89 /  20   0   0  50
Datil...........................  64  91  60  88 /  10   0   0  40
Reserve.........................  56  98  54  96 /  20  10   5  50
Glenwood........................  62 101  60  99 /  20  10  10  50
Chama...........................  49  86  47  82 /   0   0   5  60
Los Alamos......................  63  89  60  81 /   0  10   5  70
Pecos...........................  59  88  55  78 /  10  20  20  80
Cerro/Questa....................  54  87  52  81 /   5  30  30  90
Red River.......................  46  78  43  71 /  10  40  40  90
Angel Fire......................  40  80  39  73 /   5  40  40  90
Taos............................  51  92  52  83 /   0  20  20  80
Mora............................  52  83  49  73 /   5  40  30  80
Espanola........................  59  97  58  90 /   0   0  10  60
Santa Fe........................  63  92  60  83 /  10  10  20  80
Santa Fe Airport................  59  97  58  86 /   5   5  10  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  98  68  92 /  10   0  10  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  99  67  94 /  10   0   5  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  67 102  66  96 /  10   0   5  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69 100  67  94 /  10   0   5  40
Belen...........................  67 102  63  96 /  10   0   5  30
Bernalillo......................  66 101  65  95 /  10   0   5  50
Bosque Farms....................  65 101  63  95 /  10   0   5  30
Corrales........................  67 101  66  96 /  10   0   5  40
Los Lunas.......................  67 101  64  95 /  10   0   5  30
Placitas........................  67  96  65  90 /  10   0  10  50
Rio Rancho......................  67 100  66  94 /  10   0   5  40
Socorro.........................  72 104  68  99 /  20   0   5  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  92  58  86 /  10   0  10  60
Tijeras.........................  64  93  60  86 /  10   0  10  60
Edgewood........................  57  93  56  84 /  10   0  10  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  93  55  84 /  10   0  10  60
Clines Corners..................  59  87  56  76 /  10  10  10  70
Mountainair.....................  60  93  57  84 /  20   0  10  60
Gran Quivira....................  61  93  58  83 /  20   5  10  60
Carrizozo.......................  67  97  65  89 /  20  10  10  60
Ruidoso.........................  63  90  58  79 /  20  20  10  70
Capulin.........................  54  81  52  71 /  50  50  70  80
Raton...........................  54  85  53  76 /  30  50  60  80
Springer........................  54  88  55  77 /  20  50  60  80
Las Vegas.......................  54  85  53  75 /  10  30  30  80
Clayton.........................  60  89  60  77 /  60  20  80  60
Roy.............................  56  85  57  74 /  30  30  60  60
Conchas.........................  62  93  62  82 /  40  10  50  60
Santa Rosa......................  62  91  60  79 /  40  10  30  60
Tucumcari.......................  61  90  60  80 /  40   5  60  50
Clovis..........................  65  94  65  84 /  30  10  30  50
Portales........................  66  96  65  86 /  30  10  30  50
Fort Sumner.....................  65  96  64  86 /  40   5  30  50
Roswell.........................  70 100  71  91 /  20   5  10  40
Picacho.........................  67  95  63  85 /  20  10  10  50
Elk.............................  66  95  61  83 /  10  20  10  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for NMZ201-207-219-
220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44