393 FXUS65 KABQ 312358 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 558 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 558 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - A monsoon moisture plume will remain over the area through tomorrow with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible, especially around burn scars, urban areas, locations with saturated ground, and poorly drained areas. Rainfall rates will exceed 2 inches per hour with a few of the stronger storms. - High pressure will build and strengthen overhead early next week reducing thunderstorm coverage and resulting in moderate heat risk in many lower-elevation locations, except for major heat risk to the east central and southeast plains and middle and lower Rio Grande Valley. && .UPDATE... Issued at 558 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Shower and thunderstorm activity has ended for the day across the south central mountains, including Ruidoso. For that reason, the Flash Flood Watch for that zone has been cancelled. Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the southwest mountains, Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast highlands until 9 PM MDT. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 110 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Scattered thunderstorms have begun to develop as of 12pm today, and further development is expected to continue throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours. Storms initiating off of the high terrain are likely to have slow and erratic storm motions, based on the upper level high sitting near the bootheel of NM. With slow storm motions and a moist atmosphere (0.98" PWAT on the 18z ABQ sounding), efficient rainfall rates are likely, perhaps exceeding 2"/hr in some of the stronger storms. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 9pm tonight, mainly for the HPCC and Ruidoso area burn scars, as well as the Gila Region in southwest NM. Folks in these areas should have a plan if a warning should be issued (where as of 1230pm, Ruidoso has been placed in a Flash Flood Warning). Elsewhere, in western NM, the Gallup Airport received a severe wind gust yesterday from a nearby virga shower, and there are likely to be more gusty outflow winds from mainly dry showers and storms across far western NM through the afternoon. Showers and storms across the central mountain chain this early afternoon move slowly to the east/southeast into eastern NM, where locally heavy rainfall may cause isolated flooding impacts, especially in places that have received heavy rainfall over the past few days. Not a whole lot is expected to change for Friday, with afternoon and evening thunderstorms forming off of the high terrain and moving into the lower terrain. The only significant difference is an increase in upper level westerlies across northern and specifically northeast NM. 0-6km bulk shear values are expected to increase into the 30- 40kt range, sufficient enough to sustain updrafts and produce strong to severe storms. Collaborated with SPC to place a Marginal (1/5) risk of severe storms in northeast NM for the Day 2 (Friday) outlook. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 110 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The upper high shifts slightly to our west through the weekend, sending slightly drier air around its northern periphery into the state. Leftover moisture from this past week should remain abundant enough to produce scattered storms off the high terrain for Saturday, before the high shifts more over the state itself Sunday. By this time, precipitation chances dwindle below 10% for the entire state as the heat ramps up. Temperatures are likely to be 5-10F above average across much of the state, with high 90s to low 100s for high temperatures Sunday. Moderate risk of heat related impacts is likely across central and southeast NM Sunday and continuing into next week, with locally major risk in and near the Roswell area as highs climb into the mid 100s. The upper high continues to sit over the state moving into the middle part of the week, continuing hot temperatures across much of the region, with a low chance of seeing 100F in ABQ by Wednesday. Moisture wrapping around the west side of the high may work to induce high terrain showers and thunderstorms across western and northern NM, where localized flash flood threats may return based on slow storm motions. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Slow moving showers and storms across northern, west central, and south central NM will result in short-lived MVFR conditions through midnight. Thunderstorms across and just east of the Sandia and Manzano Mountains will develop a brief gusty gap wind affecting KABQ this evening. Clearing mid level clouds after midnight. Another crop of showers and thunderstorms look to develop across the higher terrain midday Friday. Storm motion will be slow and limited to the higher terrain across western and central NM. However, storm motion will be quicker to the southeast across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, likely impacting KLVS at the end of the TAF period. These storms across northeast NM will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 110 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days, however elevated fire weather conditions are possible across western NM Saturday and across much of the region Sunday. With a high pressure moving over the area, humidity levels drop into the low teens and single digits across the aforementioned areas. Winds remain light to hinder chances of seeing critical fire weather conditions. Otherwise, moisture remains in place today and tomorrow where scattered to numerous thunderstorms along the high terrain produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Isolated to scattered storms are favored to return mid next week to the western high terrain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 63 92 64 95 / 30 5 5 0 Dulce........................... 47 87 47 89 / 60 30 20 10 Cuba............................ 54 86 57 89 / 70 30 30 10 Gallup.......................... 53 89 54 92 / 30 20 10 0 El Morro........................ 54 84 55 87 / 60 40 30 10 Grants.......................... 55 87 56 91 / 60 40 30 10 Quemado......................... 56 85 58 88 / 60 50 30 20 Magdalena....................... 60 83 62 87 / 60 50 20 20 Datil........................... 55 82 56 85 / 60 60 30 30 Reserve......................... 54 90 55 93 / 50 70 20 30 Glenwood........................ 58 94 61 97 / 60 60 20 20 Chama........................... 46 80 49 82 / 60 40 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 56 81 59 84 / 60 40 20 20 Pecos........................... 54 81 55 85 / 60 50 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 81 53 83 / 60 60 20 30 Red River....................... 44 72 45 74 / 60 70 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 40 74 40 77 / 70 70 20 40 Taos............................ 51 83 52 86 / 60 50 20 20 Mora............................ 48 78 49 82 / 70 60 30 30 Espanola........................ 57 88 58 92 / 70 40 20 10 Santa Fe........................ 58 83 60 86 / 70 40 30 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 86 58 90 / 70 40 30 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 89 68 92 / 70 30 30 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 90 66 94 / 60 30 30 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 93 65 97 / 60 20 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 91 66 95 / 60 30 20 5 Belen........................... 61 92 63 96 / 60 20 20 5 Bernalillo...................... 63 91 65 95 / 70 30 30 10 Bosque Farms.................... 61 92 63 96 / 60 20 20 5 Corrales........................ 63 92 66 96 / 60 30 30 10 Los Lunas....................... 62 92 64 96 / 60 20 20 5 Placitas........................ 61 88 64 92 / 70 30 30 10 Rio Rancho...................... 63 91 65 95 / 60 30 30 10 Socorro......................... 64 93 66 96 / 60 30 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 55 83 59 87 / 70 30 30 10 Tijeras......................... 58 83 60 88 / 70 30 30 10 Edgewood........................ 53 83 55 88 / 70 30 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 85 53 89 / 60 30 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 54 78 55 83 / 60 40 30 5 Mountainair..................... 55 83 57 87 / 60 40 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 55 82 58 86 / 50 40 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 62 86 64 89 / 50 40 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 55 78 57 82 / 40 50 10 20 Capulin......................... 54 78 52 82 / 70 60 40 30 Raton........................... 54 81 51 86 / 70 60 40 30 Springer........................ 55 84 53 88 / 60 60 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 53 79 53 85 / 60 60 30 20 Clayton......................... 60 82 58 89 / 30 40 40 10 Roy............................. 58 80 56 86 / 60 40 40 10 Conchas......................... 63 88 62 94 / 40 30 40 5 Santa Rosa...................... 61 85 60 91 / 40 30 30 5 Tucumcari....................... 60 84 60 90 / 30 20 30 0 Clovis.......................... 64 89 65 94 / 30 20 30 0 Portales........................ 65 90 64 96 / 30 20 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 64 89 64 94 / 30 10 20 0 Roswell......................... 69 94 69 98 / 30 10 10 0 Picacho......................... 62 86 61 91 / 30 30 10 5 Elk............................. 58 83 59 89 / 30 40 5 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ208-209-214-215- 229. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...71