938 FXUS65 KABQ 101917 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 117 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 - High risk of burn scar flash flooding into the early evening hours then a moderate risk on Wednesday, especially for the Ruidoso area. - A few strong storms mainly south of U.S. Highway 60 may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts from this afternoon into the evening. - Temperatures will warm to the hottest values of the season so far late this week into early next week, creating at least moderate heat risk in most lower elevation locations. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1245 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A weak and ill-formed upper low is currently moving southeast through south central NM per the latest water vapor satellite imagery and providing added forcing for an earlier initiated round of storms near Ruidoso. Slow storm motion and heavy rainfall has already resulted in flash flooding on/near the Ruidoso area burn scars and the threat will continue through the afternoon hours, including over the HPCC scar. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was just issued for Chaves County, where a sufficient combination of shear and increasing instability should be good for a severe storm or two this afternoon. The latest HRRR and HREF show the greatest potential for a severe storm near Dunken in southwest Chaves County this afternoon. Elsewhere, garden variety storms will produce little threat except for gusty/erratic outflow winds. Expect a normal diurnal convective downturn this evening, with skies gradually clearing overnight. A weak upper level ridge will move into western NM Wednesday, but lingering moisture and daytime heating will combine for another crop of storms by afternoon. The best chances will be across eastern NM Wednesday, with low potential for a strong to severe storm across the northeast plains and near the TX border. Any storms that develop west of the central mountain chain on Wednesday will likely produce very little measurable rainfall and will bring a threat for dry lightning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1245 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A warming and drying trend will be in play from the end of the work week through the weekend, with temperatures trending above normal areawide and bringing at least a moderate risk for excessive heat to lower elevation locales across much of central and western NM. The culprit will be an upper high, forecast to move north from Mexico and be centered over NM by Sunday. 500mb pressure heights are forecast to increase to around 596dam as the upper high centroid moves into NM, which aren`t particularly anomalous for mid June. Daily rounds of convection will trend down toward the end of the work week due to continued drying of the atmosphere, but sufficient moisture will remain for storms across eastern NM on Thursday, where a couple may become strong to severe near the TX/OK borders. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, although very short-lived MVFR impacts are possible with scattered showers and storms this afternoon/evening. TAFs least likely to be impacted by storms at KFMN and KTCC. PROB30s were used elsewhere, with potential impacts to the KABQ/KAEG airspace during the key 22-02Z period. Storms will trend down quickly this evening and skies will clear out. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the next 7 days, but elevated conditions are possible by Tuesday as an upper level trough approaches from the west and brings breezy to locally windy conditions. Until then, decreasing chances for wetting rain will focus along/east of the central mountain chain through Thursday. A warming/drying trend will follow going into the weekend that will bring temperatures above normal area wide as an upper level ridge moves north from Mexico and expands over New Mexico. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 56 92 57 92 / 10 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 85 45 87 / 20 20 5 5 Cuba............................ 51 85 53 87 / 20 20 10 0 Gallup.......................... 48 90 50 90 / 20 5 10 0 El Morro........................ 51 85 52 86 / 20 10 10 0 Grants.......................... 49 88 52 90 / 20 20 20 0 Quemado......................... 53 88 54 88 / 20 20 10 0 Magdalena....................... 56 86 58 89 / 30 30 20 10 Datil........................... 53 85 54 87 / 30 40 10 10 Reserve......................... 49 92 50 93 / 20 20 5 0 Glenwood........................ 54 96 52 97 / 10 20 5 0 Chama........................... 44 78 45 81 / 30 20 10 10 Los Alamos...................... 55 82 57 85 / 30 30 10 10 Pecos........................... 52 81 52 85 / 30 40 20 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 79 48 81 / 20 40 10 30 Red River....................... 41 70 41 72 / 30 50 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 37 73 37 76 / 20 40 20 30 Taos............................ 44 82 48 84 / 20 30 10 20 Mora............................ 46 77 47 81 / 20 50 20 40 Espanola........................ 53 89 56 92 / 30 30 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 55 84 55 86 / 30 30 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 54 87 55 89 / 20 30 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 89 65 92 / 30 20 20 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 59 91 64 93 / 20 20 20 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 92 63 95 / 20 20 20 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 91 63 94 / 20 20 20 0 Belen........................... 56 93 61 96 / 30 20 20 0 Bernalillo...................... 58 92 61 95 / 20 20 20 0 Bosque Farms.................... 56 92 61 95 / 30 20 20 0 Corrales........................ 59 92 61 95 / 20 20 20 0 Los Lunas....................... 57 92 61 96 / 30 20 20 0 Placitas........................ 59 89 61 92 / 20 20 20 0 Rio Rancho...................... 59 92 62 94 / 20 20 20 0 Socorro......................... 62 95 64 97 / 30 20 20 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 84 55 87 / 30 20 20 5 Tijeras......................... 56 86 57 89 / 30 20 20 5 Edgewood........................ 51 85 53 89 / 30 20 20 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 47 86 49 90 / 30 20 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 51 81 53 84 / 30 30 20 20 Mountainair..................... 51 85 55 88 / 30 20 20 5 Gran Quivira.................... 51 85 54 89 / 30 20 20 10 Carrizozo....................... 56 87 61 91 / 30 30 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 53 77 56 83 / 30 40 20 40 Capulin......................... 50 78 50 82 / 20 30 20 30 Raton........................... 49 84 48 85 / 20 30 20 30 Springer........................ 49 84 50 86 / 20 40 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 49 79 50 82 / 20 40 20 30 Clayton......................... 56 84 57 86 / 10 10 10 20 Roy............................. 54 80 54 84 / 20 20 30 20 Conchas......................... 59 88 59 91 / 20 20 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 56 85 58 90 / 20 20 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 58 87 59 90 / 20 5 20 10 Clovis.......................... 60 83 60 88 / 40 10 10 10 Portales........................ 59 84 59 89 / 40 10 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 59 87 60 92 / 30 20 10 20 Roswell......................... 63 91 65 97 / 30 20 10 10 Picacho......................... 56 85 58 90 / 30 30 10 30 Elk............................. 53 82 56 87 / 30 40 10 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11