443 FXUS65 KABQ 111127 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 527 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 - Warming temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the end of the week. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal and around record values for today and tomorrow. The hottest day will be Saturday with widespread 80s and 90s. - Minor heat-related impacts are possible for those outside for an extended period of time without taking proper precautions. - Breezy to locally windy conditions on Saturday and Sunday with stronger gusts for the central and northeast highlands. Single digit relative humidities and warm temperatures will also contribute to critical fire weather conditions, mainly for north-central areas. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 313 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 High temperatures will keep rising today and tomorrow, with multiple records forecast to be broken around the state. Temperatures will cool slightly for western and central areas on Sunday, but eastern areas look to see another record breaking afternoon before a backdoor cold front begins to sweep through during the evening. Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected on Saturday and Sunday, particularly along and east of the central mountain chain. As a result, critical fire weather conditions are expected, particularly for north-central areas. Heading into next week, temperatures cool slightly, but still above average for western and central parts of New Mexico. Chances for rain return midweek and then again for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 313 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 The upper level ridge will continue to build over NM today with the ridge axis over western NM by this afternoon. H5 heights climb to 584-586dam over the area which is ~2 standard deviations above normal. Many locations across western NM will see record breaking temperatures this afternoon. Meanwhile, eastern NM will continue to feel the effects of yesterday`s backdoor front. High temperatures will be around 5 to 12 degrees above normal, vs. highs up to 18 degrees above normal across the west. Moisture that arrived behind the front will remain in place across eastern NM as well. There are low chances (<15%) that sprinkles and/or virga showers will develop along the moisture gradient just east of the Central Mountain Chain this afternoon and early evening. Modest DCAPE values suggest that there could be wind gusts upward of 35 mph or so with this activity before it wanes around sunset. Another mild night in store with low temperatures several degrees above normal. H5 heights come down 2-3dam on Saturday as the ridge begins to flatten in response to the trough crossing the northern Rockies near the Canadian border. Temperatures will not change much across western NM compared to today, but a deepening lee side surface trough will result in westerly downslope winds across the east. Any remaining effects of the front will be replaced by dry and breezy to windy downslope conditions. The strongest winds are expected across northeast NM with gusts around 35 to 45 mph. Temperatures will soar to as much as 25 degrees above normal across the east, while temperatures remain up to 18 degrees above normal across the west. Many, many record high temperatures are in jeopardy across the entire CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 313 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 The high pressure ridge of heat will finally break down on Sunday, but not before it exhausts one more afternoon of record breaking temperatures for eastern New Mexico. An upper level shortwave trough digging into the northern Rockies will start to squash and shift the ridge axis east. Pressure heights will fall throughout the state and high clouds will begin to stream into western and northern parts of the state. This will result in temperatures cooling a few degrees compared to Saturday for most areas outside of the eastern plains. With 500 mb heights between 580 and 584 dm over much of eastern New Mexico (within the 90th percentile for this time of year according to local sounding climatology), there is still very high confidence for 90+ degree record high temperatures. One of the most significant changes with this forecast package is that wind speeds for this weekend have trended down considerably. The passage of this shortwave trough will pick up wind speeds area wide, but the 700 mb speed maxes of 45 to 55 kts looks to occur during the morning, before peak heating will be able to mix them down to the surface. Most guidance is in pretty good agreement with this downward trend in wind speeds, giving greater confidence that we will remain below Wind Advisory criteria. The strongest gusts look to occur along the central mountain chain, co-located with the stronger mid level- flow. A sub 1000 mb sfc low that develops over the TX-OK panhandles during the afternoon will help create some stronger gusts for the central and northeast highlands, but they shouldn`t exceed 40 kts. These downsloping winds will also aid in warming up the environment for the eastern plains, with Roswell, Portales, and Clovis all forecast to break records. Another variable for Sunday will be the timing of the backdoor cold front for eastern New Mexico. Guidance has trended towards a quicker passage, with winds speeds starting to shift northeast near Clayton by late afternoon. Therefore, not as confident in temperatures soaring to record levels for parts of northeast New Mexico. In fact, bumped temperatures down a couple degrees for Clayton and Capulin, anticipating that an earlier wind shift will inhibit diurnal heating. The weaker winds and backdoor front will also limit the extent of the critical fire conditions into eastern New Mexico. The highest confidence areas will be along the Sangres and adjacent highlands where winds will be strongest. The front will sweep through the rest of eastern New Mexico overnight and into Monday morning. Temperatures will cool to below average for eastern areas, while the rest of the state will be just at or above normal for this time of year. Long range ensemble guidance has come into pretty good agreement for the upper level pattern for next week, increasing confidence in another warm and mostly dry period of weather for the first half of the week. Slight ridging looks to build over the Desert Southwest ahead of a deepening low pressure system off the southern California coast. Within this ridge, an embedded shortwave trough looks to bring in increased moisture from the Pacific for Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture at the surface will be meager so wetting rain will be isolated. But mid and high clouds look to create some virga showers throughout the region during the afternoon. Things then look to get interesting late next week as the SoCal low approaches with much more moisture content, increasing chances for rain areawide. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds across eastern NM will veer around to the south today with gusts up to 25kt this afternoon. Lighter winds expected across the west. A moisture gradient just east of the Central Mountain Chain will be a focus for a sprinkles and/or virga showers with gusty winds this afternoon. These will dissipate around sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 313 AM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025 A strong upper level ridge will strengthen over NM today. Record high temperatures are expected for much of western NM and humidity values will plummet below 10% for 5 to 10 hours. Eastern areas will remain slightly more moist in the wake of yesterday`s cold front with min RH values dropping into the 20% range. A few southerly breezes will be noted across eastern NM as well. All eyes turn to the weekend. On Saturday, the upper level ridge will flatten slightly, allowing a lee side surface trough to deepen across eastern CO. Westerly winds will be the rule areawide, with the strongest winds across northeast NM where gusts will be between 35 and 45 mph. Any moisture across the east will be a memory by Saturday afternoon. 6 to 12 hours of single digit RH are expected across western NM and up to 8 hours across eastern NM. Additionally, very unstable conditions will be present as 700-500mb lapse rates approach 9.6C/km with mixing heights topping out around 500mb. Confidence is high that critical fire weather conditions will be met across northeast NM and the Fire Weather Watch will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Across west central NM, confidence is lower that wind speeds will be strong enough to meet criteria for 3+ hours, therefore have elected to leave the Fire Weather Watch in place. Models are not as bullish regarding wind speeds on Sunday. Best chances for winds meeting critical criteria look to be across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent areas southward across the Central Highlands. Elsewhere, wind speeds may be just shy. Another factor is the timing of a backdoor cold front into northeast NM. Models have sped up this feature, which may now push into northeast NM Sunday afternoon. One thing that has not changed, is how dry it will be. Between 6 and 16 hours of single digit RH is expected on Sunday for all but the highest elevations of the northern mountains. Very unstable conditions will also persist. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for areas where confidence is highest that winds will be strong, but additional areas may need to be added later. The aforementioned front will continue to push through the plains Sunday night, and through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Monday morning. Cooler temps and higher humidity expected for eastern NM Monday, but dry conditions will persist across the west. A weak system will cross northern NM on Tuesday and may bring drier shower activity with gusty winds to the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 83 42 83 45 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 78 34 79 35 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 77 40 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 82 31 83 35 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 79 38 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 82 33 82 36 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 80 41 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 80 51 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 79 44 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 84 36 85 38 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 88 38 87 39 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 71 36 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 74 53 77 51 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 77 44 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 73 41 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 62 33 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 69 26 71 35 / 5 0 0 0 Taos............................ 76 34 79 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 73 40 78 43 / 5 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 82 44 86 44 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 76 47 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 80 43 84 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 82 53 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 84 52 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 86 46 89 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 50 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 87 46 90 48 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 84 49 88 50 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 44 89 46 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 85 47 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 85 44 88 46 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 81 52 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 83 51 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 88 52 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 77 51 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 79 51 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 79 49 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 81 36 84 40 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 76 44 79 44 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 80 49 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 79 46 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 82 52 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 77 52 81 53 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 76 43 83 45 / 10 10 0 0 Raton........................... 79 39 86 43 / 10 10 0 0 Springer........................ 79 40 87 43 / 10 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 75 43 81 48 / 10 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 78 49 89 52 / 5 0 0 0 Roy............................. 75 46 85 49 / 10 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 82 49 93 52 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 79 48 90 53 / 10 10 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 81 52 92 53 / 5 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 80 50 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 81 49 92 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 81 50 93 54 / 0 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 85 52 96 54 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 82 50 92 54 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 81 51 88 55 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ104-121- 123. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ105-109. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NMZ121>123-125. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...34 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.