743 FXUS65 KABQ 251858 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1258 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1247 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 - Moderate heat risk will impact the lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico Saturday, then the lower elevations of the Rio Grande Valley westward Sunday. Cooler temperatures are forecast next week. - After a downtick in storm coverage through Saturday, monsoon moisture will begin to spread northward over New Mexico again on Sunday. Then, monsoon moisture will surge over the forecast area during the first half of the coming work week with locally heavy rainfall daily, as well as the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding mainly during the afternoon and evening each day. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1247 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 A broad area of upper level low pressure off the CA coast and a large upper level high over the southeast U.S. will spread south to southwest flow aloft over NM. This pattern will allow much drier air over AZ to penetrate farther east into NM compared to recent days. PWATs at KABQ are progged to fall as low as 0.4" thru Sunday. There will still be enough lingering moisture and instability east of the central mt chain today for isolated showers and storms, but most activity is expected to produce <0.15" of rainfall. The exception will be near the Caprock of southeast NM where smaller footprints >0.30" are possible. By Saturday, storm chances primarily focus over southeast NM with near-zero chances elsewhere. Max temps will trend a couple degrees warmer areawide thru Saturday with minimum humidity falling below 10% over western NM. Moderate heat risk is possible in the lower elevations of eastern NM where highs reach into the upper 90s to near 100F. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1247 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 By Sunday, the easterly wave currently located off the TX coast will have moved west to near Coahuila. Strengthening southeasterly return flow ahead of this wave will help PWATs climb above 1.25" across the southeast third of NM. A 595dm H5 high center is shown developing over central NM ahead of the easterly wave/inverted trough Sunday afternoon. Strong afternoon heating with increasing moisture and weak steering flow will help storm chances increase again from the Sacramento Mts south and eastward. Deep-layer southeast flow continues to advect richer moisture into the region Sunday night and Monday as the inverted trough continues moving west across Chihuahua. The 12Z NAM12 is building the H5 high center to near 600dm around southeast CO while several other models and the LREF cluster analysis show a weaker high farther west near southwest CO. PWATs continue to rise as the moisture plume continues advancing north and west into more of central and western NM. The latest NBM precip chances have trended toward "likely" around the central and southern high terrain Monday afternoon. Steering flow will be slow and erratic toward the north and west given the proximity of the high setting up somewhere north of NM. Confidence on Flood Watches for the Ruidoso area is only low to moderate for Sunday and Monday at this time. Currently, Tuesday is looking like a more widespread active day as the inverted trough becomes absorbed into the south-north monsoon plume over central and western NM. All the ingredients appear in place for widespread showers and storms with torrential rainfall rates along and west of the central mt chain. Remnant convective circulations, surface boundaries, and cloud cover from Monday night along with the eventual location of the inverted trough will throw a wrench into nailing down the details with where the heaviest rain rates will occur Tuesday. An overall similar scenario is possible Wednesday but with the moist-instability axis shifted farther north and west across NM. The H5 ridge axis may attempt to develop westward more into NM again Thursday and Friday but with abundant moisture still trapped beneath the high. While storm coverage may decrease, any activity that does develop would be very slow moving and still be capable of locally heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Fewer SHRA/TS over the region today will make for a quieter airspace with only isolated activity focused east of the central mt chain. Storm motions will be erratic toward the east around 10 to 15 mph. A direct hit will be capable of producing downburst wind gusts, brief rain, and some lightning strikes. Clearing skies will occur tonight with light winds at all terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 PM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 A trough of low pressure sliding across the Great Basin today will force even drier air farther eastward into central NM thru Sunday. Southwest wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph may also occur over northwest NM with minimum humidity falling into the upper single digits. ERC values are also highest over northwest NM with the extended drought conditions in place. Storm coverage will decrease areawide over the weekend with most activity outside of eastern NM producing little to no rainfall thru Saturday. Moisture will creep back into southeast NM Sunday and allow for greater chances for wetting rainfall east of the central mountain chain and over the Gila region. A substantial uptick in storm coverage is expected next week as the monsoon plume sets up more into central and western NM. Much needed precip is still shown on the latest WPC outlook with widespread 0.25-0.50" and locally >1" along and west of the central mt chain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 61 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 46 88 45 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 56 88 55 90 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 49 88 50 91 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 53 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 53 89 53 92 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 55 87 55 89 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 61 88 61 90 / 0 5 0 10 Datil........................... 55 86 54 87 / 0 5 0 10 Reserve......................... 53 92 53 94 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 58 96 58 98 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 47 82 48 85 / 5 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 61 85 62 87 / 5 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 56 86 58 88 / 5 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 84 55 86 / 10 0 0 5 Red River....................... 46 75 46 78 / 10 5 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 41 79 39 80 / 10 5 0 10 Taos............................ 51 86 51 89 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 50 84 52 84 / 10 5 0 10 Espanola........................ 59 93 59 95 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 61 87 62 89 / 5 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 90 60 92 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 93 69 95 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 95 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 95 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 61 96 62 97 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 64 95 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 61 95 62 97 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 65 96 66 98 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 62 95 63 97 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 64 92 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 64 95 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 66 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 87 61 90 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 61 91 63 94 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 54 90 56 92 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 90 53 93 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 56 85 58 86 / 5 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 56 88 59 90 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 57 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 64 91 65 90 / 0 5 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 58 84 58 83 / 5 10 0 30 Capulin......................... 53 85 55 86 / 20 5 0 5 Raton........................... 52 89 52 91 / 20 5 0 5 Springer........................ 53 92 53 93 / 20 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 53 87 55 88 / 10 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 62 92 64 93 / 20 5 0 0 Roy............................. 57 89 59 90 / 20 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 62 97 66 96 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 93 63 92 / 10 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 61 94 65 93 / 10 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 67 97 68 95 / 5 10 0 5 Portales........................ 66 98 68 96 / 5 10 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 65 97 67 95 / 10 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 69 100 71 97 / 5 10 0 5 Picacho......................... 61 93 63 91 / 5 10 0 10 Elk............................. 60 91 61 89 / 5 10 0 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42