330
FXUS64 KEPZ 082308
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
508 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 432 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Added some low-end POPs for isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms over the Black Range and Sacramento mountains for
the rest of the afternoon. Once heating abates, the showers and
storms will rapidly dissipate, with storms expected to cease
between 7 and 8 pm.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Quiet and dry weather conditions with above average to near record
warmth will continue through the week. Thursday through Sunday
will be the warmest days of the week with record high temperatures
being rivaled on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Overall, no major changes in the forecast from previous forecast
packages with quiet weather conditions and warm temperatures across
far west TX and southern NM over the next few days.

High pressure a aloft will be the main feature dictating the
sensible weather conditions across the Borderland Region through the
period. High pressure will continue building in across the Four
Corners and Southern Rockies region through the day and Wednesday,
leading to quiet weather conditions and above average warmth across
the desert lowlands. High temperatures this afternoon will top out
in the upper 80s to around 90 under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday through Sunday, high pressure aloft will be at its
strongest. Above average warmth will continue with high temperatures
in the low 90s for El Paso. High temperatures on Thursday, Saturday,
and Sunday will rival daily record high temperatures each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 432 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

VFR conditions over the terminals through the period. Skies will
be mostly clear in vcty and over forecast points, but there are
some convective cloud development over the area high mountains;
the Sacramento, San Andres, and Black Ranges. These will be SCT-
BKN070-100 with ISO SHRA and TSRA through 02Z. Aft 02Z, expect
SHRA and TSRA to rapidly dissipate and end, with skies trending
toward SKC. Possible local erratic and strong wind gust in vcty of
showers/storms with VRBL 25G40KTs possible. Otherwise, winds
light in the 03-07kt range and favoring E through SE for the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Upper level high pressure over the region with warm/above average
temperatures and dry conditions will be the theme through the
period. Fire weather concerns are LOW to ELEVATED each afternoon,
ELEVATED for elevations below 7500 ft. High temperatures will remain
5-15 degrees above the seasonal average with Min RH values across
the desert lowlands/Gila between 10-15 percent and 15-25 percent
over the Sacs this afternoon.

Winds will remain light and generally out of east/south. Winds over
the mountains will be more terrain influenced, along with following
it`s typical diurnal wind flow regimes. Mixing heights will range
from 9000-13000 feet each afternoon with Good to Very Good
ventilation rates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  62  91  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            55  84  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               57  89  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               57  87  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  66  44  67 /  20   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    56  87  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              56  83  56  84 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                   55  90  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                57  89  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       65  89  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                54  89  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             57  91  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               58  82  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   58  90  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             59  87  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           62  89  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            56  88  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    55  90  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 57  88  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                55  86  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  49  79  50  79 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                47  77  48  79 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 46  74  47  76 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  47  81  47  81 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                54  87  55  88 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                54  87  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             49  82  49  82 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   53  85  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  92  48  92 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               54  85  54  86 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  84  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   56  90  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  54  88  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           56  88  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               58  85  58  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird