263
FXUS64 KEPZ 020916
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
316 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025
...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain confined to the
higher terrain for the remainder of the afternoon.
- More widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will move
across the wider area later tonight into Monday, with most
areas seeing at least some light rain.
- Rainfall amounts will be highest in the higher terrain of
Southwestern New Mexico, but generally under half an inch.
Lower amounts around 0.10 to 0.20 inches are likely across the
lowlands, and a few unlucky spots will get missed.
- Warmer conditions are expected next week, with temperatures
likely exceeding the 100 degree mark at El Paso Friday and
into the Weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025
A parade of disturbances will work to shape the fate of the forecast
in the short term. The first, an upper low, is currently evident on
water vapor making its way into southwest AZ. It has a handsome slug
of subtropical moisture in tow and this has allowed for scattered
showers and storms to persist across much of the Borderland
overnight. We can expect an increase in coverage closer to dawn as
moisture meets with more favorable forcing. The upper low sweeps up
towards the Four Corners by lunch, bringing the potential for
additional showers and storms into the afternoon. This particular
edition of convection will be largely dependent on if windows of
sunlight are able to create enough instability. In addition to the
generous helping of rainfall, the system will help to reduce the
heat--most locales will see cooling of around 10F or more as
compared to Sunday`s highs.
The first disturbance tracks into the Rockies by Monday night,
allowing for precip to diminish around the Borderland. A shortwave
ridge builds in behind the trough`s exit, bringing a quick rebound
to high temperatures nearly areawide. The trough`s migration
eastward will kick off a gusty backdoor front down the Great Plains,
but unfortunately the best cooling from this fropa stays to our
east. Meanwhile, the next disturbance begins to flirt with the SoCal
coast, moving inland around dawn Wednesday. This disturbance is
quickly pulled northeasterly, allowing the best precip chances to
remain to our north. Still, with the help of some return flow,
eastern zones may be party to a few showers Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.
The system ejects quickly into the Great Plains and H5 pressure
heights begin to rise. Thursday will be the start to an oppressive
warming and drying trend, lasting through Sunday when El Paso will
have a chance at cracking 105F.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025
Scattered showers and isolated thunder will continue for much of the
period thanks to a slowly approaching UL low. The main impact from
these showers/storms will be brief reductions in VIS, with minimums
of 4-6 SM expected, along with gusty outflow winds. Latest model
data shows ongoing activity through around 9z with another round
moving southwest to northeast around sunrise followed by another
round in the late afternoon or evening on Monday.
Otherwise, expected variable skies with bases as low as 070. Winds
will generally be from the west to southwest with speeds around 10
to 15 knots along with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will expand in
coverage today as an upper level disturbance tracks across the
Desert Southwest. Typical thunderstorm hazards will exist,
including cloud-to-ground lightning and sudden and erratic wind
gusts. More efficient cells could bring the threat of burn scar
flash flooding to the Sacramento Mountain complex of scars.
Widespread wetting rainfall is anticipated across the high
terrain, with around around 0.1 to 0.25 inch common in the
lowlands.
Drier and warmer conditions will take hold Tuesday through the
remainder of the week for most areas. The Sacramento Mountains may
see a burst of rain overnight on Wednesday but confidence remains
low. Critically low humidity returns to the forecast on Wednesday,
spreading in coverage and intensity on Thursday. Widespread single
digit humidity will persist through the remainder of the forecast
period in the presence of generally light winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 88 70 94 69 / 50 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 87 63 88 62 / 40 10 0 0
Las Cruces 83 61 89 64 / 70 10 10 10
Alamogordo 85 59 89 62 / 50 10 10 10
Cloudcroft 64 45 68 45 / 80 20 10 20
Truth or Consequences 83 63 89 64 / 70 0 10 30
Silver City 74 54 81 57 / 50 10 10 10
Deming 84 61 91 64 / 60 0 10 10
Lordsburg 81 57 87 61 / 60 0 10 0
West El Paso Metro 86 68 90 71 / 50 10 0 0
Dell City 91 64 93 63 / 30 10 0 0
Fort Hancock 93 68 95 67 / 40 10 0 0
Loma Linda 81 60 85 63 / 50 10 0 0
Fabens 90 67 93 68 / 40 10 0 0
Santa Teresa 85 64 89 66 / 50 10 0 10
White Sands HQ 85 67 90 70 / 70 10 10 10
Jornada Range 84 57 89 61 / 60 10 10 20
Hatch 85 60 91 63 / 60 0 10 10
Columbus 85 65 91 69 / 70 0 0 0
Orogrande 84 62 88 65 / 50 10 0 10
Mayhill 76 50 79 47 / 50 20 10 10
Mescalero 74 48 78 50 / 60 10 10 20
Timberon 73 45 76 47 / 50 10 10 10
Winston 75 49 80 50 / 80 0 20 30
Hillsboro 82 56 87 58 / 70 0 10 20
Spaceport 83 55 89 60 / 60 10 10 20
Lake Roberts 75 45 84 51 / 60 10 20 20
Hurley 78 54 85 57 / 50 0 10 10
Cliff 81 52 88 58 / 50 0 10 10
Mule Creek 77 49 83 55 / 50 0 10 10
Faywood 78 56 85 60 / 70 0 10 10
Animas 81 59 87 61 / 60 10 10 0
Hachita 81 59 87 62 / 70 0 10 0
Antelope Wells 80 58 87 61 / 80 10 10 0
Cloverdale 74 58 82 60 / 70 20 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...99