561
FXUS64 KEPZ 050444
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1044 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low chance of showers and storms in far eastern areas each
afternoon through Friday.
- Temperatures steadily climb into the weekend, with highs in
the lower deserts climbing above 100 degrees again, the
hottest days will be Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 951 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025
Dry, southwesterly flow persists for Thu, keeping us free of storm
chances with the exception of Hudspeth county where some surface
moisture lingers. Dew points fall to the 20s during the afternoon
as the dryline mixes out and pushes eastward. Friday looks pretty
similar as the upper ridge stays to the southeast and the best
moisture is just to the east of our CWA ahead of the dryline.
The heat cranks up as we head into the weekend. Upper ridging
expands and shifts westward from S TX with 500mb heights reaching
592-593 dam both Sat and Sun and 850mb temps peaking at 35C for
KELP on Sun. These values aren`t super impressive for extreme heat
(we`d need closer to 600 dam heights for highs near 110F). The
center of the upper high stays to our south in northern Mexico,
but it`s close enough to be a problem. NBM percentiles show
medium-high confidence in highs near or above 105F for KELP from
Sat-Mon, so Heat Advisories will likely be hoisted in the next
24-48 hours for the lower RGV zones at least. Sunday still looks
to be the hottest day of the period with 50th percentile NBM
spitting out 107F and about a 10% chance of reaching 110F (daily
record is 106 for context).
Our 500mb heights fall to 590 dam or below by Monday along with
850mb temps as the upper ridge is squeezed west into the E-Pac,
allowing sfc temps to begin to cool. Northwesterly flow aloft and
return of moisture from the east take over into the middle of
next week, allowing low rain/storm chances to return for some
areas, especially the mountains late in the forecast period. We`ll
see where any upper troughs/features develop that could make
things more active for us, but the models are struggling to
resolve what the pattern looks like once the upper high shifts to
the west. More seasonal temps (lowland highs in mid-upper 90s)
return after Monday as most areas stay dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 951 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Mainly SKC
persists with FEW250 passing by and a few CU developing in the
afternoon. Winds AOB 7kts tonight, becoming gusty during the
afternoon from S-SW, especially at KTCS which could see gusts up
to 30kts. Winds subside to AOB 10kts from W late in the period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025
Winds will not be much of an issue the next 5 days, but we will
continue to see very low min RH`s. In the lowlands min RH`s will
be well into the single digits, while in area mountains we will
see min RH`s of 10 to 15% through Sunday. There will continue to
be a slight chance for thunderstorms in far eastern Hudspeth and
Otero counties the next couple of days. Temperatures will become
more of a factor as we head into the weekend, with high
temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 96 69 98 70 / 0 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 90 62 93 65 / 10 20 10 30
Las Cruces 91 60 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 90 61 93 62 / 10 10 0 0
Cloudcroft 68 47 71 50 / 20 10 0 0
Truth or Consequences 90 62 93 64 / 10 0 0 0
Silver City 82 55 85 57 / 10 0 0 0
Deming 93 60 95 60 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 89 58 91 59 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 93 68 95 70 / 0 10 0 0
Dell City 90 65 97 65 / 0 20 10 10
Fort Hancock 99 66 100 70 / 10 10 0 30
Loma Linda 86 61 89 65 / 0 10 0 10
Fabens 96 64 98 67 / 0 10 0 20
Santa Teresa 91 63 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 92 67 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 90 58 93 60 / 10 0 0 0
Hatch 93 58 95 60 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 93 64 96 65 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 90 61 92 63 / 10 10 0 0
Mayhill 77 50 83 53 / 30 10 0 0
Mescalero 79 51 81 53 / 20 10 0 0
Timberon 76 48 80 51 / 20 10 0 0
Winston 81 47 85 49 / 20 0 0 0
Hillsboro 89 56 91 60 / 10 0 0 0
Spaceport 90 56 91 58 / 10 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 84 51 86 52 / 10 0 0 0
Hurley 86 54 88 56 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 89 55 91 56 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 84 55 86 55 / 10 0 0 0
Faywood 85 57 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 90 58 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 90 58 93 59 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 89 57 93 59 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 83 58 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson