060
FXUS64 KEPZ 231143
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
443 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024

 - Abnormally warm weather through Christmas Day with lowland
   highs in the upper sixties.

 - Pacific cold front arrives late on Christmas with gusty
   afternoon and evening winds and a slight cool down Thursday.

 - Dry conditions likely to prevail through the rest of the year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024

A more progressive weather pattern is expected this week, though
weather hazards remain minimal. Pleasant weather conditions
expected through Tuesday before a Pacific cold front brings breezy
winds on Christmas Day and slightly cooler (but still at or above
seasonal normals) temperatures the rest of the week. No
precipitation expected outside of the central NM high terrain.

...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
Another warm day today despite increasing high clouds. Upper high
over northern Mexico which has led to this stretch of abnormal
warm conditions will begins to break down and retrograde west over
the Pacific Ocean due to a weak shortwave aloft crossing the
Southern Rockies today. This wave will bring plenty of highs
clouds and a subtle wind shift to the west, but temperatures
will remain warm (10-15 degrees above normal for late December)
and no precipitation is expected. El Paso will flirt with 70
degrees for a high this afternoon and again on Tuesday.

...CHRISTMAS DAY AND THURSDAY...
Christmas will be quite warm and breezy this year, with lowland
highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees.

Models show high confidence in a more progressive flow pattern
this week. This second wave currently timed to arrive Christmas
Day is the strongest. Closed low deepening over the Las Vegas area
on Tuesday will move quickly across the Four Corners and northern
New Mexico on Wednesday. El Paso and southern New Mexico will be
on the southern end of this system, directly under the jet streak
max of roughly 75 knots. The base of this storm is quite dry, and
the only precipitation chances are fixed over the Gila National
Forest and locations further north where a light wintry mix is
possible. Main impact will be breezy winds during the Wednesday
afternoon and overnight hours into Thursday as a Pacific cold
front sweeps from west to east across the region. Current guidance
shows peak gusts in the 30-40 mph range, still a bit below Wind
Advisory thresholds. Temperatures fall a few degrees on Thursday
behind the cold front, closer to normal but still mild with
lowland highs in the lower 60s.

...FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
Third wave timed for late next week, around Friday. Again,
another system that misses us to our north, indicating a slight
increase in westerlies Thursday night into Friday but continued
dry conditions. Yet another weak wave is possible next week with
similar low-impact results. Extended models show high pressure
building back in toward the end of 2024, suggesting more warm and
dry low-impact weather for New Year`s Eve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024

VMC through forecast period with greater mid and high level cloud
cover today. Skies SCT-BKN above 12000 feet through 00Z, then
FEW-SCT250 tonight. Surface winds generally 220-260 at 05-10
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024

Warm and dry weather through Christmas Day along with low fire
danger. Min RH 15-25% this afternoon under west winds 10 to 15
mph. Smoke ventilation will become Good this afternoon with
transport due east.

Stronger winds expected on Christmas (gusts 30 to 40 mph) along
with a Pacific cold front out of the west leading to more seasonal
temperatures on Thursday. West, northwest flow will continue into
next weekend. Forecast leans dry through the rest of the year.
Fuel moisture is near seasonal normals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  41  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            67  39  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               70  38  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               65  34  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               49  29  48  31 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    66  36  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              64  37  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   71  34  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                68  32  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       67  42  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                68  32  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             71  34  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               62  40  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   69  35  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             67  35  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  43  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            67  32  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    71  34  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 71  37  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                64  34  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  63  33  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                58  32  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 59  31  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  64  27  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                68  36  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                67  33  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             64  32  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   67  32  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    72  21  71  22 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               65  34  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  68  37  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   71  34  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  70  32  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           73  37  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               65  41  66  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt